Hajduk Split vs Gorica Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Poljud Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM

1. HNL

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split

Gorica Gorica

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Marko Livaja - 4'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Hajduk Split defeating Gorica 1-0 at full time. The home side led 1-0 at the interval and successfully protected their narrow advantage through the second half, securing a victory that reinforced their status as the stronger team. Pre-match forecasts gave Hajduk Split a roughly 65 percent likelihood of winning, with far lower expectations for a draw or away success. The result showed a significant deviation linked to Hajduk Split, yet the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the contest. Hajduk Split dominated possession at 60 percent to 40 percent, though expected goals data is unavailable for further insight. The clean-sheet win reflected steady control rather than an exceptional swing, confirming the home team’s edge without reliance on external factors.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Vukančić

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Novosel

1st Assistant

Luka Kurtović

2nd Assistant

Antonio Melnjak

4th Official

G. García García

M. Carević

1.95

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.11

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

16 - 6 - 9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hajduk Split

64.71%

Draw

22.37%

Gorica

12.92%

Movement

Changes since opening

Hajduk Split

-31.77%

Draw

+19.04%

Gorica

+12.73%

Team Power Ranking

33.76

22.26

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hajduk Split

Gorica

Power Score

33.76

22.26

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score

Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Gorica

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.83

16.63

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

16.63

30.83

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hajduk Split +1.45 Efficiency Index

Gorica -1.45 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hajduk Split

Gorica

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Gorica

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hajduk Split Gorica

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hajduk Split Gorica

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hajduk Split

Gorica

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hajduk Split

Gorica

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hajduk Split Gorica

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hajduk Split Gorica

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hajduk Split

Gorica

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Hajduk Split had peak pressure around 40'.
Hajduk Split started the game with stronger pressure.

Hajduk Split Pressure Gorica Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Hajduk Split reached the top pressure at 40' (58.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home

31 matches

Gorica Gorica Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+25

Goal Difference

-25

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

33 T. Silić

8 N. Sigur

31 Z. Šarlija

15 D. Maresic

32 ?. Hrgović

4 A. Pajaziti

23 F. Krovinović

28 R. Brajković

21 R. Pukstas

11 M. Šego

10 M. Livaja

71 D. Matijaš

5 M. Leš

4 J. Filipović

45 S. Peric

25 B. Bogojević

36 A. Kavelj

7 O. Bakić

22 Ž. Trontelj

24 D. Pavičić

64 T. Epailly

11 S. Wisdom Aondowase

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Poljud

Capacity :

34198

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ivan Vukančić

Kristijan Novosel

Luka Kurtović

Antonio Melnjak

Statistics

Possession

Hajduk Split

59%

Gorica

41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 1

70 Dangerous attacks 33

60 Possession 40

1 Corners 1

16 Free kicks 16

0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

9 Dribble Attempts 15

21 Throwins 24

4 Goal Kicks 11

5 Successful Dribbles 5

4 Substitutions 5

1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

148 Attacks 88

2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

605 Passes 398

14 Successful Long Passes 28

89 Successful Passes Percentage 83

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

36 Long Passes 58

536 Successful Passes 329

12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Interceptions 13

21 Tackles 7

2 Saves 5

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3

13 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

16 Fouls 15

1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Manager ▼

G. García García Coach

Starting XI ▼

Toni Silic Goalkeeper

Niko Sigur Defender

Dario Maresic Defender

Zvonimir Sarlija Defender

Simun Hrgovic Defender

Dario Melnjak

Defender61'

Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder

Michele Sego Midfielder

Ante Rebić

Attacker61'

Rokas Pukstas Midfielder

Filip Krovinovic Midfielder

Roko Brajkovic Midfielder

Bruno Durdov

Attacker82'

Marko Livaja Attacker

Adam Guram

Midfielder90+5'

Substitutes ▼

Dario Melnjak

Defender61'

Ante Rebić

Attacker61'

Bruno Durdov

Attacker82'

Adam Guram

Midfielder90+5'

Bench ▼

Ivan Pocrnjić Goalkeeper

Dante Stipica Goalkeeper

Ron Raci Defender

Marino Skelin Defender

Hugo Guillamón Midfielder

Anthony Kalik Midfielder

Noa Skoko Midfielder

Abdoulie Sanyang Attacker

Referee : Ivan Vukančić