Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 8 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
1 Winner 3
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Rokas Pukstas - 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Monsef Bakrar - 38'
Gabriel Vidovic - 11'
Miha Zajc - 7'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb. The result saw Dinamo Zagreb take the points. Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Erceg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Novosel

2nd Assistant

P. Pavlešić

4th Official

I. Janić

1st Assistant

Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.06
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: D
Vukovar Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 22 - 33
33

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
27.05%
Draw
27.87%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
45.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.67
76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
62.67
76
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.56
45.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.65
30.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split -1.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb +1.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
22 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
6
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
6
Goals
18
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
18
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:07:27+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium :
Stadion Poljud
Capacity :
34198
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kristijan Novosel
Patrik Pavlešić
Mateo Erceg
Ivan Janić

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
51%
GNK
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 7
4 Shots 3
70 Dangerous attacks 60
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Successful Dribbles 12
22 Throwins 27
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
10 Dribble Attempts 24
10 Goal Kicks 8
0 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 4
115 Attacks 105

Possession

397 Passes 347
51 Long Passes 67
17 Successful Long Passes 28
313 Successful Passes 256
9 Key Passes 12
79 Successful Passes Percentage 74
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

28 Tackles 18
9 Interceptions 19
2 Saves 2

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 18

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Fran Topic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Marko Soldo → Miha Zajc
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Fran Topic → Monsef Bakrar
9th Substitution
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Roko Brajkovic
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Dario Melnjak → Simun Hrgovic
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Marko Livaja → Hugo Guillamón
5th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Niko Galesic → Moris Valincic
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf → Bruno Goda
3rd Substitution
Event
Filip Krovinovic → Noa Skoko
2nd Substitution
65'
54'
Event
Josip Misic
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
48'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Zvonimir Sarlija → Luka Hodak
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Hugo Guillamón
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
28'
11'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
7'
Event
Miha Zajc
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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