Häcken vs Malmö FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Nordic Wellness Arena Sun, 10 May - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Häcken HAC
3 Winner 2
Malmö FF MAL
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:30 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
G. Lindgren - 37', 4'
Jens Stryger Larsen - 20' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Erik Botheim - 39'
Busanello - 24'

CONTEXT

Häcken pulled off a thrilling 3-2 home victory over Malmö FF, with all five goals scored in the first half to lead 3-2 at the break. Despite Malmö FF controlling 61% of possession compared to Häcken's 39%, the hosts defended resolutely in the second half to secure the points. This result marks a significant structural deviation of 56% in favor of Häcken, who defied expectations as the underdogs against the stronger Malmö FF side. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half adjustments from either team. The win highlights Häcken's clinical finishing early on, capitalizing on their opportunities while Malmö FF struggled to convert their dominance into goals. Possession stats underscored Malmö's pressure, but Häcken's backline stood firm, ensuring the halftime lead held. This outcome aligns with pre-match market sentiments, where Häcken were slight favorites.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 56% structural deviation favoring Häcken.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Ladebäck

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Spahić

2nd Assistant

Sweden

D. Yng

1st Assistant

Sweden

A. Bashir

4th Official

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.65
Yellow cards / match 3.21
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.19
Häcken J. Gustafsson
J. Gustafsson
VS
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Degerfors Rank: 48 D
Sirius Rank: 62 D
Västerås SK Rank: 46 D
GAIS Rank: 58 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 W
Brommapojkarna Rank: 49 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mjällby Rank: 69 L
AIK Rank: 57 W
Sirius Rank: 61 L
Djurgården Rank: 65 W
GAIS Rank: 59 W
Örgryte Rank: 42 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 12 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Häcken
43.96%
Draw
26.1%
Away Malmö FF
29.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Häcken
-50.2%
Draw
+20.45%
Malmö FF
+29.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.75
62.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Häcken
Malmö FF
Power Score
59.75
62.98
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
498
399

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Häcken — Opponent-weighted form score
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Häcken Malmö FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Häcken

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Häcken ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.33
33.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.44
43.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Häcken +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Malmö FF -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Häcken
Malmö FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Häcken ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Häcken Malmö FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Häcken Malmö FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Häcken
Malmö FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Häcken
vs
Malmö FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Häcken Malmö FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Häcken 0.39
Malmö FF 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Häcken Malmö FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Häcken 0.03
Malmö FF 0.08
Häcken
Malmö FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HAC had peak pressure around 18'.
  • HAC started the game with stronger pressure.
HAC Pressure MAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HAC reached the top pressure at 18' (94.34).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Häcken HAC Home
38 matches
Malmö FF MAL Away
Match Record
12
Wins
14
12
Draws
12
14
Losses
12
Goals
51
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
51
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Linde
Sweden
1 A. Linde
B. Wembangomo
Norway
5 B. Wembangomo
H. Hilvenius
Sweden
13 H. Hilvenius
F. Helander
Sweden
22 F. Helander
A. Lundqvist
Sweden
21 A. Lundqvist
A. Layouni
Substitution
Tunisia
24 A. Layouni
S. Andersen
Denmark
8 S. Andersen
A. Doumbia
Ivory Coast
6 A. Doumbia
A. Svanbäck
Substitution
Sweden
20 A. Svanbäck
M. Rygaard Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
10 M. Rygaard Jensen
G. Lindgren
Substitution
Sweden
9 G. Lindgren
Pitch
J. Dahlin
Sweden
27 J. Dahlin
G. Dal Toé Busanello
Substitution
Brazil
25 G. Dal Toé Busanello
C. Rosler
Norway
19 C. Rosler
A. Đurić
Serbia
5 A. Đurić
J. Larsen
Substitution
Denmark
17 J. Larsen
K. Busuladzic
Substitution
Sweden
40 K. Busuladzic
S. Haksabanovic
Montenegro
29 S. Haksabanovic
O. Rosengren
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
A. Skogmar
Substitution
Sweden
37 A. Skogmar
O. Sjöstrand
Substitution
24 O. Sjöstrand
E. Botheim
Norway
20 E. Botheim

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nordic Wellness Arena
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adam Ladebäck
Almira Spahić
Daniel Yng
Abdinaser Bashir

Statistics

Possession
HAC
41%
MAL
59%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 6
38 Dangerous attacks 68
39 Possession 61
4 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 8
11 Dribble Attempts 16
9 Throwins 22
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
3 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 2
9 Goal Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
50 Ball Safe 58

Attacking

74 Attacks 115
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

293 Successful Passes 480
27 Successful Long Passes 34
348 Passes 549
49 Long Passes 59
84 Successful Passes Percentage 87
9 Key Passes 11
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58

Defensive

15 Interceptions 8
16 Tackles 12
4 Saves 4
37 Duels Won 39

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Linde
Andreas Linde Goalkeeper
5
Brice Wembangomo
Brice Wembangomo Defender
13
Harry Hilvenius
Harry Hilvenius Defender
21
Adam Lundkvist
Adam Lundkvist Defender
22
Filip Helander
Filip Helander Defender
6
Abdoulaye Doumbia
Abdoulaye Doumbia Midfielder
8
Silas Andersen
Silas Andersen Midfielder
20
Adrian Svanbäck
Adrian Svanbäck Midfielder
11
Julius Lindberg
Julius Lindberg
Defender63'
24
Amor Layouni
Amor Layouni Midfielder
3
Johan Hammar
Johan Hammar
Defender89'
9
G. Lindgren
G. Lindgren Attacker
2
16
Pontus Dahbo
Pontus Dahbo
Midfielder90'
10
Mikkel Rygaard
Mikkel Rygaard Attacker
14
Jeremy Agbonifo
Jeremy Agbonifo
Attacker77'
Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

27
Johan Dahlin
Johan Dahlin Goalkeeper
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric Defender
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson
Defender86'
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
25
Busanello
Busanello Defender
21
Stefano Holmquist Vecchia
Stefano Holmquist Vecchia
Midfielder86'
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
32
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Attacker64'
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar Midfielder
11
Emmanuel Ekong
Emmanuel Ekong
Midfielder75'
40
Kenan Busuladzic
Kenan Busuladzic Midfielder
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh
Midfielder64'
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pontus Dahbo → G. Lindgren
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Johan Hammar → Amor Layouni
8th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Johan Karlsson → Jens Stryger Larsen
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Stefano Holmquist Vecchia → Busanello
7th Substitution
Event
Jeremy Agbonifo → Mikkel Rygaard
5th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Emmanuel Ekong → Adrian Skogmar
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Otto Rosengren
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Julius Lindberg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
64'
Event
Daníel Gudjohnsen → Oscar Sjöstrand
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Theodor Lundbergh → Kenan Busuladzic
3rd Substitution
Event
Julius Lindberg → Adrian Svanbäck
1st Substitution
63'
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrian Svanbäck
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
39'
Event
Erik Botheim
Header / 4th Goal
Event
G. Lindgren
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
37'
Event
Mikkel Rygaard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
24'
Event
Busanello
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Jens Stryger Larsen
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
20'
Event
G. Lindgren
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Vecchia Holmquist takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Update Update
Johan Hammar comes on for Amor Layouni.
89
Update Update
Pontus Dahbo comes on for Gustav Lindgren.
88
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Stefano Vecchia Holmquist is on, and Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello is off.
86
Update Update
Johan Karlsson comes on for Jens Stryger Larsen.
82
Attempt Attempt
Silas Andersen's right-footed shot is saved.
79
Attempt Attempt
Amor Layouni takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Update Update
Jeremy Agbonifo comes on for Mikkel Rygaard Jensen.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mikkel Rygaard Jensen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Amor Layouni takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Update Update
Emmanuel Ekong replaces Adrian Skogmar.
75
Attempt Attempt
Filip Helander's header is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Skogmar's right-footed shot is blocked.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julius Lindberg receives a yellow card.
69
Attempt Attempt
Julius Lindberg takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Daniel Tristan Gudjohnsen is on, and Oscar Sjostrand is off.
64
Update Update
Theodor Lundbergh replaces Kenan Busuladzic.
63
Update Update
Julius Lindberg replaces Adrian Svanback.
62
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Lindgren takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Lindgren takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Erik Botheim takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Skogmar's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Skogmar's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Silas Andersen's right-footed shot is saved.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Erik Botheim scores, making it 2-2.
40
Update Update
Erik Botheim scores with a header.
37
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Lindgren takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
34
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 2-2, with an assist from Otto Rosengren.
24
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 2-2, assisted by Otto Rosengren.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello scores, making it 2-1.
24
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
21
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Svanback takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Jens Stryger Larsen makes it 2-0.
17
Update Update
Erik Botheim attempts a header but misses the target.
17
Attempt Attempt
Erik Botheim attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Amor Layouni takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Brice Wembangomo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Otto Rosengren with his right foot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Lindgren takes a right-footed shot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Häcken's 3-2 triumph over Malmö FF underscores their ability to strike decisively in the first half, holding off a possession-heavy response thereafter. The significant deviation highlights an upset element despite market alignment, with Häcken proving efficient in attack during the goal rush. Malmö FF's 61% possession failed to yield second-half breakthroughs, pointing to defensive solidity from the winners. This result boosts Häcken's standing while challenging Malmö FF's favoritism as the stronger team. No disciplinary issues or tactical shifts influenced the outcome, making it a pure test of first-half execution and resilience.

Häcken vs Malmö FF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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