Grazer AK vs Ried Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

Merkur Arena Fri, 17 Apr - 5:30 PM

Admiral Bundesliga

Grazer AK GAK

1 – 1

Ried Ried

Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 5:30 PM

Round 5 Relegation Round

Ramiz Harakate - 47'

Benjamin Garcia - 69'

CONTEXT

Grazer AK and Ried played out a 1-1 draw in the Austrian Bundesliga, with both teams scoreless at halftime. Grazer AK entered as the stronger team but could not secure victory despite a competitive showing. Ried edged possession at 54% to Grazer AK's 46%, reflecting a balanced contest without red cards or major disruptions. The result marked a significant 68.8% deviation from expectations centered on Grazer AK, whose pre-match positioning suggested a higher likelihood of winning. Market probabilities did not align with the outcome, as the draw diverged notably from favored scenarios. Efficiency metrics remained in line with pre-match evaluations, though xG data absence limits precise chance quality assessment. No second-half adjustments or knockout context influenced proceedings, underscoring a structurally even encounter.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match resulted in a significant 68.8% deviation attributed to Grazer AK.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented outcome consistency assessment.
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to missing data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any disciplinary distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

F. Jäger

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Steinacher

1st Assistant

P. Csobadi

2nd Assistant

M. Baumann

4th Official

F. Feldhofer

M. Senft

1.41

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.41

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 4 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Grazer AK

36.3%

Draw

31.19%

Ried

32.51%

Movement

Changes since opening

Grazer AK

+31.85%

Draw

-59.45%

Ried

+27.6%

Team Power Ranking

24.3

24.29

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Grazer AK

Ried

Power Score

24.3

24.29

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score

Ried — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Ried

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Ried

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ried

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.87

37.13

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

37.13

30.87

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Grazer AK -0.51 Efficiency Index

Ried +0.51 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Grazer AK

Ried

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ried

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Grazer AK Ried

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Grazer AK Ried

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Grazer AK

Ried

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Grazer AK

Ried

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Grazer AK Ried

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Grazer AK Ried

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Grazer AK

Ried

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Ried had peak pressure around 22'.
GAK started the game with stronger pressure.

GAK Pressure Ried Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Ried reached the top pressure at 22' (74.51).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home

10 matches

Ried Ried Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-7

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:03:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

12 F. Stolz

82 B. Owusu

2 D. Pines

3 L. Vraa-Jensen

6 M. Olesen

14 J. Italiano

20 T. Schriebl

10 C. Lichtenberger

32 L. Klassen

22 R. Harakaté

25 A. Hofleitner

1 A. Leitner

30 O. Steurer

23 M. Sollbauer

5 N. Havenaar

17 P. Pomer

28 N. Bajlicz

6 M. Maart

29 A. Van Wyk

26 J. Mayer

12 A. Bajic

7 K. Mutandwa

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 17, 2026, 05:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Relegation Round

Stadium :

Merkur Arena

Capacity :

16764

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Florian Jäger

Robert Steinacher

Patrick Csobadi

Manuel Baumann

Statistics

Possession

GAK

44%

Ried

56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 5

2 Shots 4

24 Dangerous attacks 41

46 Possession 54

4 Corners 8

14 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1

2 Successful Dribbles 10

14 Goal Kicks 11

84 Ball Safe 74

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

15 Throwins 13

11 Goal Attempts 18

8 Dribble Attempts 16

2 Substitutions 3

0 Assists 1

3 Injuries 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 4

54 Attacks 109

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 81

30 Successful Long Passes 37

307 Passes 355

225 Successful Passes 289

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58

73 Long Passes 64

6 Key Passes 12

Defensive

7 Interceptions 12

3 Saves 1

11 Tackles 10

48 Duels Won 53

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 6

15 Total Crosses 25

Discipline

4 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Florian Jäger

Manager ▼

F. Feldhofer Coach

Starting XI ▼

Franz Stolz Goalkeeper

6.81

Donovan Pines Defender

6.94

Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender

6.6

Beres Owusu Defender

6.87

Mathias Olesen Midfielder

6.89

Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder

6.62

Murat Satin

Midfielder76'

6.61

Jacob Italiano Midfielder

6.91

Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder

6.91

Tobias Koch

Midfielder66'

6.79

Leon Klassen Midfielder

7.02

Ramiz Harakate Attacker

7.05

Alexander Hofleitner Attacker

6.71

Substitutes ▼

Tobias Koch

Midfielder66'

6.79

Murat Satin

Midfielder76'

6.61

Bench ▼

Jakob Meierhofer Goalkeeper

6.57

Christoph Nicht Goalkeeper

Martin Kreuzriegler Defender

6.62

Lukas Graf Defender

6.45

Tim Paumgartner Midfielder

6.46

Mark Grosse Attacker

7.14

Dominik Frieser Attacker

6.59

Referee : Florian Jäger