Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir) Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM

Super Lig

Göztepe GOZ

3 – 3

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Malcom Bokele - 89'

Jeh - 82' (P)

Juan - 24'

Filip Krastev - 76' (Own Goal)

Adrian Benedyczak - 52'

Mortadha Ben Ouanes - 45+1'

Kerem Demirbay 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa is finished, ending in a 3-3 draw. The teams were level at 1-1 by half-time and produced an open, high-scoring second half that saw three goals apiece after the restart. Göztepe entered the fixture as the stronger side and clear pre-match favorites, yet the result marked a significant deviation from those expectations. The draw ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection that had heavily favored the home team. Possession was relatively balanced, with Göztepe holding 53 percent compared to Kasımpaşa’s 47 percent, while no xG data was available to measure underlying quality. Kasımpaşa’s red card proved the defining event, creating a second-half distortion that altered the balance of the contest. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the numerical disadvantage, producing a final outcome that reflected the chaotic nature of the evening rather than a straightforward home success.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Göztepe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

?. Altay

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Pakkan

4th Official

B. Birinci

1st Assistant

Y. Susuz

2nd Assistant

S. Stoilov

E. Belözoğlu

1.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.9

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 2 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Göztepe

49.26%

Draw

28.8%

Kasımpaşa

21.95%

Movement

Changes since opening

Göztepe

+41.99%

Draw

-62.08%

Kasımpaşa

+20.1%

Team Power Ranking

20.35

18.52

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Göztepe

Kasımpaşa

Power Score

20.35

18.52

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score

Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Göztepe ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

38.58

19.89

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.89

38.58

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Göztepe +1.88 Efficiency Index

Kasımpaşa -1.88 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Göztepe

Kasımpaşa

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Göztepe ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Göztepe

Kasımpaşa

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Göztepe

Kasımpaşa

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Göztepe

Kasımpaşa

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

GOZ had peak pressure around 93'.
Kasımpaşa started the game with stronger pressure.

GOZ Pressure Kasımpaşa Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: GOZ reached the top pressure at 93' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Göztepe GOZ Home

13 matches

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 M. Lis

3 A. Godói Santos

5 H. dos Santos

26 M. Mputu

2 A. Kurtulan

30 A. Dennis

20 N. Dismas

15 M. Cherni

11 E. Bekiroglu

39 J. de Carvalho Costa

9 Juan

1 A. Gianniotis

21 G. Owusu Frimpong

4 A. Arous

50 R. Nascimiento Franca

2 C. Winck Neto

16 A. Baldursson

26 K. Demirbay

12 M. Ben Ouannes

34 F. Diabaté

71 İ. Kahveci

19 A. Benedyczak

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir)

Capacity :

20040

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Çağdaş Altay

Burak Pakkan

Bahtiyar Birinci

Yusuf Susuz

Statistics

Possession

GOZ

54%

Kasımpaşa

46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3

3 Big Chances Created 3

9 Shots 3

49 Dangerous attacks 27

53 Possession 47

4 Corners 2

11 Free kicks 15

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

5 Successful Dribbles 8

5 Substitutions 3

1 Penalties 0

7 Dribble Attempts 14

7 Goal Kicks 9

2 Hit Woodwork 0

28 Successful Headers 27

78 Ball Safe 77

11 Goal Attempts 4

24 Throwins 14

2 Assists 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2

106 Attacks 77

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

28 Successful Long Passes 25

70 Successful Passes Percentage 66

233 Successful Passes 200

66 Long Passes 76

333 Passes 304

13 Key Passes 5

Defensive

2 Saves 3

12 Tackles 10

4 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 1

28 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 1

15 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Çağdaş Altay

Manager ▼

S. Stoilov Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper

Allan Godói Defender

Héliton Defender

Malcom Bokele Defender

Guilherme Luiz

Attacker90+3'

Arda Okan Kurtulan Midfielder

Ogün Bayrak

Defender66'

Amin Cherni Midfielder

Novatus Miroshi Midfielder

Anthony Dennis Midfielder

Filip Krastev

Midfielder57'

Juan Attacker

Efkan Bekiroğlu Attacker

Alexis Antunes

Midfielder57'

Janderson Attacker

Jeh

Attacker58'

Substitutes ▼

Alexis Antunes

Midfielder57'

Filip Krastev

Midfielder57'

Jeh

Attacker58'

Ogün Bayrak

Defender66'

Guilherme Luiz

Attacker90+3'

Bench ▼

Ekrem Kılıçarslan Goalkeeper

Şamil Öztürk Goalkeeper

Taha Altıkardeş Defender

Uğur Kaan Yıldız Defender

M. Mohammed Midfielder

Referee : Çağdaş Altay