Göztepe vs Gaziantep F.K. Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir) Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Göztepe GOZ
2 Winner 1
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
Full Time Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Jeh - 80'
Myenty Abena - 4' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Bayo - 56'

CONTEXT

Göztepe clinched a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Gaziantep F.K. in the Süper Lig, defying their opponents' 61% possession dominance with just 39% of the ball. The home side struck first, leading 1-0 at halftime, and held firm through a tense second half where Gaziantep pulled one back but couldn't equalize. As the stronger team entering the match, Göztepe's clinical finishing produced a significant structural deviation of 39.8%, aligning with pre-match market expectations that heavily favored them at 60.2% probability. No red cards marred the contest, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections despite the lack of xG data. This result underscores Göztepe's resilience and ability to convert limited opportunities into points, boosting their campaign while exposing Gaziantep's wastefulness in attack.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Göztepe recorded a significant structural deviation of 39.8% in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout ties influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to match dynamics.
  • Market: Göztepe 60.2% (Δ-35.4%) | Draw 22.2% (Δ+18%) | Gaziantep F.K. 17.6% (Δ+17.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Kolak

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. İlhan

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

O. Gökçen

4th Official

Türkiye

K. Akın

1st Assistant

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.32
Göztepe S. Stoilov
S. Stoilov
VS
Gaziantep F.K. M. Radoi
M. Radoi
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 D
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Galatasaray Rank: 86 L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 62 L
Kayserispor Rank: 62 W
Rizespor Rank: 70 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 D
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Göztepe
60.2%
Draw
22.22%
Away Gaziantep F.K.
17.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Göztepe
-35.41%
Draw
+18.02%
Gaziantep F.K.
+17.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.76
65.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Göztepe
Gaziantep F.K.
Power Score
73.76
65.56
League Position
5
11
Global Rank
133
317

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Göztepe Gaziantep F.K.

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Göztepe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Göztepe Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Göztepe Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Göztepe
Gaziantep F.K.
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Göztepe
vs
Gaziantep F.K.
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Göztepe Gaziantep F.K.
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Göztepe 0.00
Gaziantep F.K. 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Göztepe Gaziantep F.K.
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Göztepe 0.00
Gaziantep F.K. 0.00
Göztepe
Gaziantep F.K.
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GOZ had peak pressure around 65'.
  • GOZ started the game with stronger pressure.
GOZ Pressure Gaziantep F.K. Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GOZ reached the top pressure at 65' (79.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Göztepe GOZ Home
9 matches
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
10
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T16:31:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Lis
Poland
1 M. Lis
A. Godói Santos
Substitution
Brazil
3 A. Godói Santos
H. dos Santos
Brazil
5 H. dos Santos
M. Mputu
Cameroon
26 M. Mputu
A. Kurtulan
Substitution
Türkiye
2 A. Kurtulan
A. Dennis
Substitution
Nigeria
30 A. Dennis
N. Dismas
Tanzania
20 N. Dismas
M. Cherni
France
15 M. Cherni
A. Antunes
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Antunes
Juan
Brazil
9 Juan
J. Marinho dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
19 J. Marinho dos Santos
Pitch
M. Bozan
Türkiye
71 M. Bozan
K. Rodrigues
Portugal
77 K. Rodrigues
A. Kızıldağ
Türkiye
4 A. Kızıldağ
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
N. Sangare
Türkiye
30 N. Sangare
D. Sorescu
Romania
18 D. Sorescu
A. Maxim
Romania
44 A. Maxim
V. Gidado
Substitution
8 V. Gidado
D. Camara
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 D. Camara
K. Kozłowski
Substitution
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
M. Bayo
Guinea
9 M. Bayo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir)
Capacity :
20040
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Azad İlhan
Oğuzhan Gökçen
Kürşathan Akın
Batuhan Kolak

Statistics

Possession
GOZ
46%
Gaziantep F.K.
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 2
53 Dangerous attacks 36
39 Possession 61
8 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 21
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
8 Throwins 22
24 Successful Headers 17
7 Goal Kicks 13
19 Dribble Attempts 10
11 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Attempts 2
23 Ball Safe 36
1 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

97 Attacks 60
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 76
157 Successful Passes 291
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
22 Successful Long Passes 25
14 Key Passes 9
223 Passes 385
52 Long Passes 53

Defensive

17 Interceptions 7
12 Tackles 12
57 Duels Won 55
1 Saves 5

Build-up

12 Accurate Crosses 0
32 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

21 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Allan Godói
Allan Godói Defender
6.91
4
Taha Altıkardeş
Taha Altıkardeş
Defender69'
6.77
5
Héliton
Héliton Defender
6.9
26
Malcom Bokele
Malcom Bokele Defender
6.72
2
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Arda Okan Kurtulan Midfielder
6.84
77
Ogün Bayrak
Ogün Bayrak
Defender89'
6.65
15
Amin Cherni
Amin Cherni Midfielder
6.78
20
Novatus Miroshi
Novatus Miroshi Midfielder
6.79
30
Anthony Dennis
Anthony Dennis Midfielder
6.75
6
M. Mohammed
M. Mohammed
Midfielder83'
6.5
8
Alexis Antunes
Alexis Antunes Attacker
6.74
22
Uğur Kaan Yıldız
Uğur Kaan Yıldız
Defender89'
6.63
9
Juan
Juan Attacker
6.99
19
Jeh
Jeh Attacker
6.71
14
Guilherme Luiz
Guilherme Luiz
Attacker83'
6.56
Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

71
Burak Bozan
Burak Bozan Goalkeeper
6.6
4
Arda Kızıldağ
Arda Kızıldağ Defender
6.7
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
6.77
18
Deian Sorescu
Deian Sorescu Defender
6.86
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré Defender
6.77
77
Kévin Rodrigues
Kévin Rodrigues Defender
6.83
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara Midfielder
7.08
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi
Attacker86'
6.72
8
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado Midfielder
6.52
26
A. Kalın
A. Kalın
Attacker90'
6.48
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim Midfielder
7.41
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
7
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Attacker
6.99
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama
Midfielder86'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
A. Kalın → Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
8th Substitution
Event
Ogün Bayrak → Arda Okan Kurtulan
6th Substitution
89'
Event
Uğur Kaan Yıldız → Alexis Antunes
7th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Karamba Gassama → Kacper Kozlowski
4th Substitution
86'
Event
Christopher Lungoyi → Drissa Camara
5th Substitution
Event
M. Mohammed → Anthony Dennis
3rd Substitution
83'
Event
Guilherme Luiz → Jeh
2nd Substitution
83'
Event
Jeh
Header / 2nd Goal
80'
72'
Event
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Taha Altıkardeş → Allan Godói
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Héliton
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Novatus Miroshi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
58'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Goal awarded
56'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Myenty Abena
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Ali Osman Kalin is on, and Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Deian Cristian Sorescu takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alexandru Maxim takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Substitution Substitution
Ogun Bayrak is substituted for Arda Kurtulan.
89
Update Update
Ugur Kaan Yildiz replaces Alexis Antunes.
88
Attempt Attempt
Deian Cristian Sorescu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Christopher Lungoyi comes on for Drissa Camara.
86
Update Update
Karamba Gassama replaces Kacper Kozlowski.
83
Update Update
Guilherme Luiz comes on for Jeferson Marinho dos Santos.
83
Update Update
Musah Mohammed is on, and Anthony Dennis is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Dennis takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
77
Attempt Attempt
Juan takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Malcom Bokele Mputu attempts a header but misses the shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
69
Update Update
Taha Altikardes replaces Allan Godoi Santos.
67
Attempt Attempt
Drissa Camara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Drissa Camara takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Novatus Miroshi receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Juan takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms that a goal is awarded to Mohamed Bayo.
56
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodrigues Pires takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohamed Bayo with his right foot results in a goal.
54
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Kozlowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Juan takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Arda Kurtulan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Antunes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Kozlowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Bayo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Drissa Camara takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Kozlowski takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mohamed Bayo receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Amine Cherni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Antunes takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alexis Antunes is saved with a right-footed effort.
12
Attempt Attempt
Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos attempted a header but missed the shot.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal gives the lead, making it 1-0.
3
Attempt Attempt
Juan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alexis Antunes with his right foot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Göztepe's 2-1 triumph over Gaziantep F.K. exemplifies their tactical edge, turning inferior possession into a decisive win through sharp finishing and defensive solidity. Leading 1-0 at halftime set the tone, and despite Gaziantep's pressure, the hosts navigated the second half unscathed. This significant deviation reinforces Göztepe's status as the stronger outfit, with market views proven accurate. Without disruptions like red cards, the game highlighted pure execution, propelling Göztepe up the table while Gaziantep rues missed chances from their possession advantage.

Göztepe vs Gaziantep F.K. preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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