Górnik Zabrze vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Zabrze Sat, 9 May - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
0 Winner 2
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Sat, 9 May 6:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Levente Szabó - 74'
Jakub Kolan - 63'

CONTEXT

Górnik Zabrze welcomed Zagłębie Lubin to a match where the home side entered as the stronger team, yet suffered a 0-2 defeat. Dominating possession with 64% to the visitors' 36%, Górnik created chances but failed to score, especially after a goalless first half at 0-0. Zagłębie Lubin, more efficient, netted both goals in the second period without facing any red card interruptions. The game proceeded smoothly with full squads intact, highlighting Lubin's clinical edge over Górnik's control. This outcome, marked by minimal structural deviation, underscores how away teams can exploit limited opportunities. Górnik's wastefulness contrasted Lubin's sharpness, flipping expectations in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.1% favoring Zagłębie Lubin.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data availability.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any scoreline distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Marciniak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Kupsik

2nd Assistant

Poland

K. Wójcik

4th Official

Poland

T. Listkiewicz

1st Assistant

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.97
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.2
Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 61 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Nieciecza Rank: 51 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 64 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 62 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 7 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Górnik Zabrze
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.02
63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Górnik Zabrze
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
67.02
63
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
269
396

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Górnik Zabrze Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.70
41.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.94
45.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Górnik Zabrze +0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin -0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Górnik Zabrze Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Górnik Zabrze
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Górnik Zabrze Zagłębie Lubin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Górnik Zabrze 0.29
Zagłębie Lubin 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Zagłębie Lubin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Górnik Zabrze 0.05
Zagłębie Lubin 0.00
Górnik Zabrze
Zagłębie Lubin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Górnik Zabrze had peak pressure around 10'.
  • Górnik Zabrze started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Górnik Zabrze Pressure Zagłębie Lubin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Górnik Zabrze reached the top pressure at 10' (94.16).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Home
35 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
13
Wins
15
7
Draws
7
15
Losses
13
Goals
49
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
49
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:05:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
M. Sáček
Substitution
Czech Republic
61 M. Sáček
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
P. Bochniewicz
Poland
4 P. Bochniewicz
E. Janža
Substitution
Slovenia
64 E. Janža
L. Ambros
Czech Republic
18 L. Ambros
P. Hellebrand
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
J. Kubicki
Substitution
Poland
14 J. Kubicki
Y. Ikia Dimi
Substitution
France
7 Y. Ikia Dimi
S. Liseth
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Liseth
M. Khlan
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
M. Grzybek
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
D. Dąbrowski
Substitution
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
F. Kocaba
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
J. Kolan
Substitution
Poland
26 J. Kolan
M. Reguła
Substitution
Poland
44 M. Reguła
M. Kosidis
Substitution
Greece
9 M. Kosidis

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Zabrze
Capacity :
24413
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adam Kupsik
Karol Wójcik
Tomasz Listkiewicz
Szymon Marciniak

Statistics

Possession
Górnik Zabrze
60%
Zagłębie Lubin
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 1
85 Dangerous attacks 42
64 Possession 36
15 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

15 Throwins 11
78 Ball Safe 75
15 Goal Attempts 12
11 Goal Kicks 12
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
18 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Successful Dribbles 7
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
101 Attacks 72

Possession

429 Successful Passes 211
87 Successful Passes Percentage 75
46 Long Passes 45
492 Passes 280
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
17 Key Passes 12
21 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

51 Duels Won 64
3 Interceptions 8
4 Saves 5
19 Tackles 18

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 5
42 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

10 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
4
Pawel Bochniewicz
Pawel Bochniewicz Defender
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
61
Michal Sacek
Michal Sacek Defender
16
Pawel Olkowski
Pawel Olkowski
Defender40'
64
Erik Janza
Erik Janza Defender
17
Kamil Lukoszek
Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder76'
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
14
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Jaroslaw Kubicki Midfielder
36
Michal Rakoczy
Michal Rakoczy
Midfielder46'
18
Lukas Ambros
Lukas Ambros Midfielder
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi Attacker
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly
Defender46'
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth Attacker
10
Lukas Podolski
Lukas Podolski
Attacker76'
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Attacker
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Defender
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic
Defender85'
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Midfielder
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder74'
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Midfielder
6
Tomasz Makowski
Tomasz Makowski
Midfielder85'
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Midfielder74'
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis Attacker
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó
Attacker59'

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Luka Lucic → Damian Dabrowski
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Tomasz Makowski → Jakub Kolan
10th Substitution
Event
Kamil Lukoszek → Erik Janza
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Lukas Podolski → Sondre Liseth
8th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Levente Szabó
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
74'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski → Marcel Regula
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Adam Radwanski
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Levente Szabó
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Jakub Kolan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Levente Szabó → Michalis Kosidis
4th Substitution
Event
Michal Rakoczy → Jaroslaw Kubicki
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Ondrej Zmrzly → Yvan Ikia Dimi
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pawel Olkowski → Michal Sacek
1st Substitution
40'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Podolski takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Podolski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Podolski attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Tomasz Makowski comes on for Jakub Kolan.
85
Update Update
Luka Lucic comes on for Damian Dabrowski.
85
Attempt Attempt
Maksym Khlan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Pawel Bochniewicz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Michal Rakoczy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Pawel Olkowski takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Lukoszek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
Kamil Lukoszek is on, and Erik Janza is off.
76
Update Update
Lukas Podolski is on, and Sondre Liseth is off.
74
Update Update
Mateusz Dziewiatowski is on, and Marcel Regula is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo scores with a right-footed shot.
74
Update Update
Jakub Sypek replaces Adam Radwanski.
72
Update Update
Ondrej Zmrzly's header is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Michal Nalepa's header is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Hellebrand takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Michal Rakoczy takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kolan takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
59
Update Update
Levente Szabo comes on for Michalis Kosidis.
55
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Ambros takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Liseth's left-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Hellebrand takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kolan takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Hellebrand takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Michal Rakoczy is on, and Jaroslaw Kubicki is off.
46
Update Update
Ondrej Zmrzly comes off, and Yvan Junior Ikia Dimi comes on.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Liseth takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Ambros takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski's header is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Update Update
Pawel Olkowski comes on for Michal Sacek.
38
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Liseth's right-footed shot is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Yvan Junior Ikia Dimi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Liseth takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Erik Janza attempts a header but misses the shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Ambros takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Michalis Kosidis attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jaroslaw Kubicki attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Liseth's left-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Ambros takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Adam Radwanski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Zagłębie Lubin's 0-2 triumph at Górnik Zabrze defies the home team's strength and possession dominance. Locking the first half at 0-0, Lubin struck decisively post-interval, capitalizing where Górnik faltered. Absent red cards or disruptions, the result stems from superior finishing amid even flow. Minimal deviation and full market alignment affirm this as a fair reflection of on-pitch execution. Górnik rues unconverted chances, while Lubin savors vital away points. This shift promises league intrigue as underperformers regroup and victors build confidence.

Górnik Zabrze vs Zagłębie Lubin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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