Gorica vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
2 Winner 0
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Ante Erceg - 12'
Bruno Bogojevic - 5'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Gorica delivered a controlled performance to defeat Osijek 2-0 at home. Both goals arrived in the opening period, establishing a 2-0 halftime advantage that remained unchanged after the break. Osijek enjoyed greater possession at 60 percent yet created limited clear chances against a compact Gorica defense. The home side managed the game efficiently with 40 percent of the ball, focusing on quick transitions and set-piece threats. No red cards were issued, allowing both teams to maintain full complements throughout the ninety minutes. Gorica's early dominance proved decisive, preventing any meaningful comeback from the visitors. The outcome reflected the pre-match assessment of Gorica as the stronger side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Gorica 2-0 Osijek. Gorica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency stayed in line with established benchmarks across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable for direct alignment verification.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with prevailing indicators before kickoff.
  • xG expectations: No recorded xG expectations were available ahead of the fixture.
  • Event impact: Two first-half goals established a lead that shaped the entire match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero disciplinary distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Pavlešić

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Pajić

1st Assistant

Croatia

?. Bučar

2nd Assistant

Croatia

I. Šantić

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.92
Yellow cards / match 3.27
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.32
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
Varaždin Rank: 66 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
39.1%
Draw
30.11%
Away Osijek
30.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gorica
-58.74%
Draw
+28.19%
Osijek
+30.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.48
61.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Osijek
Power Score
62.48
61.01
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
403
444

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.75
33.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.67
16.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica -1.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek +1.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gorica
vs
Osijek
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gorica Osijek
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gorica 0.15
Osijek 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gorica Osijek
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gorica 0.00
Osijek 0.06
Gorica
Osijek
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Osijek had peak pressure around 79'.
  • Gorica started the game with stronger pressure.
Gorica Pressure Osijek Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 79' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
9
Wins
13
9
Draws
9
13
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
32
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
H. Moustapha
Cameroon
21 H. Moustapha
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
O. Bakić
Substitution
Montenegro
7 O. Bakić
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
Substitution
Croatia
50 A. Erceg
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 (C) M. Malenica
R. Jurišić
Croatia
22 R. Jurišić
D. Čolina
Substitution
Croatia
38 D. Čolina
L. Jelenić
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
F. Karačić
Substitution
Australia
29 F. Karačić
V. Bubanja
Montenegro
21 V. Bubanja
L. Vrbančić
Substitution
Croatia
23 L. Vrbančić
N. Omerović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
S. Akere
Substitution
Nigeria
57 S. Akere
D. Bukvić
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
A. Jakupovic
Substitution
Austria
17 A. Jakupovic

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity :
8000
Attendance :
380
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrik Pavlešić
Luka Pajić
Željko Bučar
Ivan Šantić

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
42%
Osijek
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
0 Shots 6
34 Dangerous attacks 84
40 Possession 60
4 Corners 9
18 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 2
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
22 Throwins 13
17 Dribble Attempts 24
1 Assists 0
5 Successful Dribbles 15
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 129
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 9
77 Successful Passes Percentage 87
339 Passes 472
262 Successful Passes 409
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
4 Key Passes 10
61 Long Passes 28

Defensive

17 Tackles 23
5 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 7
52 Duels Won 59

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 12
10 Total Crosses 45

Discipline

11 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
7.76
21
Hadji Issa Moustapha
Hadji Issa Moustapha Defender
7.2
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Defender
7
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Defender
7.35
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
7.45
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic Midfielder
7.39
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker89'
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
6.83
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir (C) Midfielder
6.08
35
Zvonimir Josic
Zvonimir Josic
Defender82'
6.47
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
7.09
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder82'
6.36
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
7.1
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker64'
6.35
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
7.22
—
Ante Erceg
89'
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica (C) Goalkeeper
6.71
22
Roko Jurisic
Roko Jurisic Defender
6.91
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
5.88
29
Fran Karacic
Fran Karacic Defender
6.08
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić
Attacker46'
6.98
38
David Colina
David Colina Defender
6.06
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic
Defender64'
6.79
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Midfielder
7.46
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Midfielder
6.67
23
Luka Vrbancic
Luka Vrbancic Midfielder
7.05
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Midfielder64'
6.84
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
7.89
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Midfielder
6.55
48
Jona Jezic
Jona Jezic
Midfielder46'
6.39
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Attacker
6.67
46
Ivan Barić
Ivan Barić
Attacker78'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Théo Epailly → Ognjen Bakic
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Mihael Kelava → Ante Erceg
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Zvonimir Josic → Jurica Prsir
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Domagoj Pavicic
8th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Ivan Barić → Arnel Jakupovic
6th Substitution
Event
Jurica Prsir
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Luka Vrzic → Bruno Bogojevic
5th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Oleksandr Petrusenko → Luka Vrbancic
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Emin Hasic → David Colina
3rd Substitution
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
46'
Event
Jona Jezic → Samuel Akere
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Miloš Jovičić → Fran Karacic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Luka Jelenic
Goal disallowed
Event
Iker Pozo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
13'
Event
Nail Omerovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ante Erceg
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Mihael Kelava comes on for Ante Erceg.
89
Update Update
Theo Epailly is on, and Bakic Ognjen is off.
82
Update Update
Stjepan Kucis comes on for Domagoj Pavicic.
82
Update Update
Zvonimir Josic is on, and Jurica Prsir is off.
78
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Baric is substituted for Arnel Jakupovic.
77
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Pavicic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Milos Jovicic's right-footed shot is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Milos Jovicic takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Roko Jurisic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Arnel Jakupovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Milos Jovicic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Oleksandr Petrusenko with his right foot goes wide.
64
Update Update
Oleksandr Petrusenko comes on for Luka Vrbancic.
64
Update Update
Emin Hasic replaces David Colina.
63
Update Update
Luka Vrzic is on, and Bruno Bogojevic is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Milos Jovicic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jona Jezic's header is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Milos Jovicic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Ognjen Bakic's right-footed shot is saved.
46
Update Update
Jona Jezic replaces Samuel Akere.
46
Update Update
Milos Jovicic is on, and Fran Karacic is off.
41
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Luka Jelenic due to offside.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luka Jelenic scores, making it 2-1.
41
Attempt Attempt
Luka Jelenic takes a right-footed shot and scores.
39
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bukvic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Pavicic's header is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Luka Vrbancic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Iker Pozo La Rosa receives a yellow card.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nail Omerovic receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ante Erceg scores with a right-footed shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Bogojevic takes a shot with another part of his body and scores.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Gorica 2-0 Osijek. Structural assessment: Gorica exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Gorica vs Osijek preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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