Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

ŠRC Velika Gorica Fri, 17 Apr - 1:30 PM

1. HNL

Gorica Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb

Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 1:30 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Jakov-Anton Vasilj - 68'

Mirko Susak - 36'

CONTEXT

In a stunning upset in the Croatian HNL, pre-match favorites Gorica suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Lokomotiva Zagreb. Despite holding 53% possession and entering as the stronger team, Gorica created few clear chances and failed to test the away keeper meaningfully. Lokomotiva, efficient on the counter, struck first just before halftime to lead 1-0, then added a second in the latter stages to secure a deserved victory. The match flowed without red cards or major interruptions, allowing Lokomotiva's disciplined shape to shine. This result triggered a significant 69.7% deviation from structural expectations, as the visitors capitalized on Gorica's wastefulness. Possession dominance did not translate to points, highlighting clinical finishing's premium in tight contests.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb's win marked a 69.7% significant deviation favoring the away side.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
xG alignment: xG data absence prevented outcome consistency evaluation.
Market alignment: Actual result diverged from pre-match market projections.
xG expectations: Missing xG metrics blocked expectation fulfillment analysis.
Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments list showed no pivotal events.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary influence on proceedings.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Antonio Melnjak

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Pajić

1st Assistant

K. Šarić

2nd Assistant

Filip Cindrić

4th Official

M. Carević

N. Jelavić

1.05

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.95

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 10 - 11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Gorica

41.71%

Draw

27.97%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

30.32%

Movement

Changes since opening

Gorica

+41.49%

Draw

+26.05%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

-67.54%

Team Power Ranking

19.11

17.04

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Power Score

19.11

17.04

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score

Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

24.72

22.02

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

22.02

24.72

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Gorica +0.27 Efficiency Index

Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.27 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Gorica

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Lokomotiva Zagreb had peak pressure around 22'.
Gorica started the game with stronger pressure.

Gorica Pressure Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Lokomotiva Zagreb reached the top pressure at 22' (85.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home

31 matches

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-10

Goal Difference

+10

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:01:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

71 D. Matijaš

45 S. Peric

4 J. Filipović

19 M. Čabraja

22 Ž. Trontelj

36 A. Kavelj

7 O. Bakić

25 B. Bogojević

10 J. Pršir

64 T. Epailly

11 S. Wisdom Aondowase

12 J. Posavec

17 M. Pajač

16 L. Dajčer

20 D. Kolinger

23 M. Vešović

10 M. Subotic

6 B. Bošković

28 L. Belcar

29 J. Vasilj

11 M. Šušak

15 A. Stojaković

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 17, 2026, 01:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

ŠRC Velika Gorica

Capacity :

8000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Luka Pajić

Antonio Melnjak

Kruno Šarić

Filip Cindrić

Statistics

Possession

Gorica

53%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

0 Big Chances Created 3

5 Shots 1

62 Dangerous attacks 47

53 Possession 47

6 Corners 1

12 Free kicks 14

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 11

7 Successful Dribbles 7

18 Throwins 19

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

8 Goal Kicks 12

0 Assists 2

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

66 Attacks 76

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

458 Passes 412

54 Long Passes 40

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

393 Successful Passes 340

24 Successful Long Passes 17

86 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

13 Tackles 12

44 Duels Won 45

10 Interceptions 7

2 Saves 1

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 12

7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Manager ▼

M. Carević Coach

Starting XI ▼

Davor Matijas Goalkeeper

6.76

Jakov Filipovic Defender

6.82

Marijan Cabraja Defender

7.04

Stefan Peric Defender

6.65

Ognjen Bakic Midfielder

6.63

Stjepan Kucis

Midfielder64'

6.62

Zan Trontelj Midfielder

6.92

Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder

6.68

Medin Gashi

Attacker84'

6.58

Ante Kavelj Midfielder

6.84

Luka Vrzic

Attacker78'

6.68

Jurica Prsir Attacker

6.92

Sule Wisdom Aondowase Attacker

6.57

Ante Erceg

Attacker46'

6.84

Théo Epailly Attacker

6.6

Ivan Fiolic

Midfielder64'

6.53

Substitutes ▼

Ante Erceg

Attacker46'

6.84

Stjepan Kucis

Midfielder64'

6.62

Ivan Fiolic

Midfielder64'

6.53

Luka Vrzic

Attacker78'

6.68

Medin Gashi

Attacker84'

6.58

Bench ▼

Muhamed Sahinovic Goalkeeper

Darijan Zarkov Goalkeeper

Mateo Les Defender

6.53

Hadji Issa Moustapha Defender

Elvir Durakovic Defender

6.61

Zvonimir Josic Defender

6.52

Referee : Antonio Melnjak