Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
1 Winner 2
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Jurica Prsir - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Monsef Bakrar - 90'
Arbër Hoxha - 5'

CONTEXT

In a competitive Croatian HNL clash, home side Gorica faced off against stronger visitors Dinamo Zagreb, concluding with a 1-2 defeat for the hosts. The first half was tightly contested, ending 1-1 with both teams finding the net once, reflecting balanced play. Possession hovered closely around parity, Gorica holding 49% to Dinamo's 51%. Despite the even halftime score, Dinamo Zagreb capitalized in the second half to secure the victory, demonstrating their superior quality as the pre-designated stronger team. No red cards marred the match, and there were no notable tactical adjustments reported post-halftime. The result highlights Dinamo's ability to edge out a win in a structurally deviated performance by 37%, marking a significant shift from baseline expectations while aligning with broader market anticipations. Gorica showed resilience but couldn't hold firm against the visitors' pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb's 1-2 win featured a significant 37% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion in proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Vukančić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Erceg

4th Official

D. Knez

1st Assistant

T. Kontrec

2nd Assistant

Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.55
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 W
Vukovar Rank: 56 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 66 D
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 66 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Vukovar Rank: 54 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
15.46%
Draw
21.5%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
63.04%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gorica
+15.27%
Draw
+17.77%
Dinamo Zagreb
-33.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.28
81.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
62.28
81.06
League Position
6
1
Global Rank
411
52

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.18
23.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.43
24.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica +0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb -0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gorica
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gorica Dinamo Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gorica 0.16
Dinamo Zagreb 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gorica Dinamo Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gorica 0.03
Dinamo Zagreb 0.02
Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Gorica had peak pressure around 88'.
  • Gorica started the game with stronger pressure.
Gorica Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Gorica reached the top pressure at 88' (77.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
23
5
Draws
5
23
Losses
3
Goals
24
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
24
-34
Goal Difference
+34

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
Substitution
Croatia
50 A. Erceg
Pitch
D. Livaković
Croatia
40 D. Livaković
M. Vinlöf
Sweden
22 M. Vinlöf
S. McKenna
Substitution
Scotland
26 S. McKenna
N. Galesic
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
M. Valincic
Croatia
25 M. Valincic
G. Vidović
Croatia
10 G. Vidović
J. Mišić
Substitution
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
M. Soldo
Substitution
Croatia
14 M. Soldo
A. Hoxha
Substitution
Kosovo
11 A. Hoxha
D. Dijon
Substitution
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
M. Bakrar
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity :
8000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Vukančić
Mateo Erceg
Dino Knez
Toni Kontrec

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
49%
GNK
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
57 Dangerous attacks 59
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 4
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
20 Throwins 24
6 Dribble Attempts 17
3 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Assists 2
5 Goal Kicks 2
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

60 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

49 Long Passes 27
378 Passes 409
85 Successful Passes Percentage 88
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
323 Successful Passes 358
28 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

47 Duels Won 32
18 Tackles 8
8 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 3

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 16
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.75
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
6.8
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
7.05
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.68
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
7.14
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.93
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker78'
6.68
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
6.85
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
6.94
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker66'
6.61
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
6.78
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder90'
6.61
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
6.88
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Attacker78'
6.57
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.64
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
6.81
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf Defender
6.94
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
6.84
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
7.13
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez
Defender62'
7.09
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Midfielder
7
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Midfielder
6.97
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker68'
6.98
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo Midfielder
6.74
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic
Midfielder62'
7.26
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
7.25
4
Ismaël Bennacer
Ismaël Bennacer
Midfielder77'
7.17
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Midfielder
6.87
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
7.54
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker62'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Domagoj Pavicic
9th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
80'
Event
Sergi Domínguez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase → Ante Erceg
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Luka Vrzic → Bruno Bogojevic
8th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Ismaël Bennacer → Josip Misic
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Arbër Hoxha
5th Substitution
Event
Théo Epailly → Jurica Prsir
4th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
62'
Event
Luka Stojkovic → Marko Soldo
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Fran Topic → Dion Beljo
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Sergi Domínguez → Scott McKenna
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jurica Prsir
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
5'
Event
Arbër Hoxha
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Monsef Bakrar scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Goal! Monsef Bakrar scores, making it 1-2.
90
Update Update
Stjepan Kucis comes on for Domagoj Pavicic.
90
Attempt Attempt
Stjepan Kucis takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Theo Epailly takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Theo Epailly takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Bennacer takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Peric attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Luka Vrzic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Update Update
Sule Wisdom Aondowase is on, and Ante Erceg is off.
78
Update Update
Luka Vrzic is on, and Bruno Bogojevic is off.
77
Update Update
Ismael Bennacer replaces Josip Misic.
76
Attempt Attempt
Fran Topic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
68
Update Update
Mateo Lisica comes on for Arber Hoxha.
66
Update Update
Theo Epailly is on, and Jurica Prsir is off.
62
Update Update
Sergi Dominguez replaces Scott McKenna.
62
Update Update
Luka Stojkovic replaces Marko Soldo.
62
Substitution Substitution
Fran Topic is substituted for Dion Drena Beljo.
53
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Perez Vinlof takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Monsef Bakrar's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Bogojevic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Update Update
Scott McKenna takes a header, but it misses the target.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ante Kavelj's right-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Jurica Prsir takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
Update Update
Goal! Jurica Prsir scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
5
Attempt Attempt
Arber Hoxha takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
5
Update Update
Goal! Arber Hoxha scores, making it 1-0.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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