Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
De Adelaarshorst Sun, 15 Mar - 3:45 PM
Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles GAE
6 Winner 0
NAC Breda NAC
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 3:45 PM
Joris Kramer - 82'
Jakob Breum - 76', 73', 45'
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson - 41'
Mathis Suray - 12'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Go Ahead Eagles 3–0 NAC Breda. The result saw Go Ahead Eagles take the points. Go Ahead Eagles showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Go Ahead Eagles showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Lindhout

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Balder

1st Assistant

M. Diks

2nd Assistant

S. Teuben

4th Official

Go Ahead Eagles M. Boel
M. Boel
VS
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 67 L
Telstar Rank: 59 D
FC Volendam Rank: 61 D
Ajax Rank: 77 D
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 D
FC Groningen Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: 74 D
Telstar Rank: 58 L
FC Volendam Rank: 61 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 59 W
Excelsior Rank: 61 L
FC Twente Rank: 74 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Go Ahead Eagles
44.02%
Draw
26.71%
Away NAC Breda
29.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.82
53.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Go Ahead Eagles
NAC Breda
Power Score
64.82
53.98
League Position
12
17
Global Rank
305
635

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Go Ahead Eagles — Opponent-weighted form score
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Go Ahead Eagles NAC Breda

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Go Ahead Eagles

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

NAC Breda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Go Ahead Eagles ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NAC Breda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.78
40.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.73
26.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Go Ahead Eagles -1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
NAC Breda +1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Go Ahead Eagles
NAC Breda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Go Ahead Eagles ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NAC Breda
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Go Ahead Eagles NAC Breda
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Go Ahead Eagles NAC Breda
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Go Ahead Eagles
NAC Breda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Go Ahead Eagles GAE Home
3 matches
NAC Breda NAC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:26:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
J. De Busser
Belgium
22 J. De Busser
A. Adelgaard
Denmark
29 A. Adelgaard
J. Dirksen
Netherlands
26 J. Dirksen
J. Kramer
Netherlands
4 (C) J. Kramer
D. James
Substitution
Netherlands
5 D. James
V. Edvardsen
Sweden
16 V. Edvardsen
M. Meulensteen
Netherlands
21 M. Meulensteen
J. Breum
Substitution
Denmark
7 J. Breum
J. Slory
Substitution
Netherlands
19 J. Slory
S. Sigurdarson
Substitution
Iceland
9 S. Sigurdarson
M. Suray
Substitution
Belgium
17 M. Suray
Pitch
D. Bielica
Poland
99 D. Bielica
B. Kemper
Netherlands
4 (C) B. Kemper
C. Leemans
Netherlands
8 C. Leemans
D. Odoi
Ghana
3 D. Odoi
C. Valerius
Substitution
25 C. Valerius
M. Balard
Australia
16 M. Balard
K. Sowah
Substitution
Ghana
14 K. Sowah
L. Holtby
Substitution
Germany
90 L. Holtby
B. Lucassen
Substitution
Netherlands
2 B. Lucassen
André Ayew Pelé
Substitution
Ghana
24 André Ayew Pelé
C. Brym
Canada
7 C. Brym

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium :
De Adelaarshorst
Capacity :
10400
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Allard Lindhout
Johan Balder
Mario Diks
Stan Teuben

Statistics

Possession
GAE
45%
NAC
55%

Top Statistics

6 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 20
21 Dangerous attacks 48
45 Possession 55
3 Corners 9
3 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Goal Kicks 10
23 Successful Headers 23
10 Throwins 29
6 Successful Dribbles 6
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
5 Assists 0
1 Injuries 1
12 Goal Attempts 7
93 Ball Safe 90
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

66 Attacks 109
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

8 Key Passes 13
57 Long Passes 63
354 Passes 430
283 Successful Passes 333
26 Successful Long Passes 24
80 Successful Passes Percentage 77
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

9 Tackles 16
11 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 32
1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

22
Jari De Busser
Jari De Busser Goalkeeper
7.79
4
Joris Kramer
Joris Kramer (C) Defender
8.36
5
Dean James
Dean James Defender
7.04
20
Eus Waayers
Eus Waayers
Defender75'
7.25
26
Julius Dirksen
Julius Dirksen Defender
7.04
29
Aske Adelgaard
Aske Adelgaard Defender
7.06
7
Jakob Breum
Jakob Breum Midfielder
3
9.39
10
Søren Tengstedt
Søren Tengstedt
Midfielder77'
6.38
16
Victor Edvardsen
Victor Edvardsen Midfielder
8.29
21
Melle Meulensteen
Melle Meulensteen Midfielder
6.86
9
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson Attacker
7.26
27
Finn Stokkers
Finn Stokkers
Attacker75'
6.65
17
Mathis Suray
Mathis Suray Attacker
7.53
23
Thibo Baeten
Thibo Baeten
Attacker78'
6.62
19
Jaden Slory
Jaden Slory Attacker
6.59
8
Evert Linthorst
Evert Linthorst
Midfielder64'
6.62
Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
5.23
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Defender
5.43
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper (C) Defender
6.47
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans Defender
6.48
25
Cherrion Valerius
Cherrion Valerius Defender
6.15
20
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Midfielder46'
6.52
2
Boyd Lucassen
Boyd Lucassen Midfielder
6.42
11
Raul Paula
Raul Paula
Midfielder46'
6.49
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Midfielder
6.7
55
Brahim Ghalidi
Brahim Ghalidi
Attacker57'
6.51
16
Max Balard
Max Balard Midfielder
6.55
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby Midfielder
6.25
10
Mohamed Nassoh
Mohamed Nassoh
Midfielder57'
6.5
7
Charles-Andreas Brym
Charles-Andreas Brym Attacker
6.63
24
André Ayew
André Ayew Attacker
6.52
19
Amine Salama
Amine Salama
Attacker68'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joris Kramer
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
82'
Event
Thibo Baeten → Mathis Suray
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Søren Tengstedt → Jakob Breum
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Jakob Breum
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
76'
Event
Finn Stokkers → Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Eus Waayers → Dean James
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Jakob Breum
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
73'
68'
Event
Amine Salama → André Ayew
6th Substitution
Event
Evert Linthorst → Jaden Slory
5th Substitution
64'
57'
Event
Brahim Ghalidi → Kamal Sowah
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Mohamed Nassoh → Lewis Holtby
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen → Cherrion Valerius
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Raul Paula → Boyd Lucassen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jakob Breum
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
45'
Event
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
Header / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Mathis Suray
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to NAC Breda, following a foul by Eus Waayers.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Go Ahead Eagles 6, NAC Breda 0.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Raul Paula from NAC Breda takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Brahim Ghalidi from NAC Breda fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Charles-Andreas Brym.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Aske Adelgaard allowed the ball to go out.
87
Update Update
A new offensive effort unfolds as Fredrik Oldrup Jensen from NAC Breda heads the ball from the center of the box, but Jari De Busser, the goalkeeper for Go Ahead Eagles, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Mohamed Nassoh, who delivered a cross.
86
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda earned a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Update Update
Julius Dirksen from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Thibo Baeten from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Thibo Baeten from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead NAC Breda 6-0. Joris Kramer scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the top left corner. The assist comes from Eus Waayers.
80
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Amine Salama from NAC Breda attempted a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Brahim Ghalidi.
78
Update Update
Max Balard from NAC Breda committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Finn Stokkers from Go Ahead Eagles was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Go Ahead Eagles: Thibo Baeten comes on to replace Mathis Suray.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Go Ahead Eagles: Søren Tengstedt comes on to replace Jakob Breum.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead 5-0 against NAC Breda. Jakob Breum scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The assist comes from Victor Edvardsen after a quick counterattack.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Go Ahead Eagles: Eus Waayers comes on to replace Dean James.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Go Ahead Eagles: Finn Stokkers comes on to replace Stefán Sigurdarson.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead 4-0 against NAC Breda. Jakob Breum scores for Go Ahead Eagles with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the top center of the net.
70
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Amine Salama from NAC Breda takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Raul Paula.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Boy Kemper from NAC Breda attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Amine Salama comes on to replace André Ayew.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Clint Leemans.
65
Update Update
Denis Odoi from NAC Breda was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
65
Update Update
Aske Adelgaard from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
65
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Mohamed Nassoh from NAC Breda attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Clint Leemans.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Go Ahead Eagles: Evert Linthorst comes on to replace Jaden Slory.
64
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
64
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Mathis Suray from Go Ahead Eagles.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to NAC Breda after Mathis Suray allowed the ball to go out of play.
61
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Raul Paula from NAC Breda takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Raul Paula of NAC Breda took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
58
Update Update
Mohamed Nassoh from NAC Breda has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
58
Update Update
Julius Dirksen from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Brahim Ghalidi replaces Kamal Sowah.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Mohamed Nassoh replaces Lewis Holtby.
54
Update Update
Offside call against Go Ahead Eagles. Mathis Suray has been flagged for being in an offside position.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after a play that resulted in a deflection off Joris Kramer.
50
Attempt Attempt
Raul Paula from NAC Breda takes a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Max Balard.
48
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. André Ayew from NAC Breda heads the ball from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by goalkeeper Jari De Busser of Go Ahead Eagles, who makes the save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Raul Paula, who delivered a cross.
46
Update Update
Offside call against Go Ahead Eagles. Stefán Sigurdarson has been flagged for being offside.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Raul Paula comes on to replace Boyd Lucassen.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Go Ahead Eagles leading NAC Breda by a score of 3-0.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead 3-0 against NAC Breda. Jakob Breum scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball high into the center of the net. The assist comes from Victor Edvardsen.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Go Ahead Eagles 3, NAC Breda 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Fredrik Oldrup Jensen replaces Cherrion Valerius.
44
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
43
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Boy Kemper from NAC Breda.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead 2-0 against NAC Breda. Stefán Sigurdarson scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, placing it perfectly into the bottom corner. The assist comes from Jaden Slory.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after a play that resulted in a foul by Jari De Busser.
40
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push is underway. Clint Leemans from NAC Breda takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
40
Update Update
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles lead 2-0 against NAC Breda. Stefán Sigurdarson scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard area.
39
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda earned a free kick in an offensive position.
39
Update Update
Melle Meulensteen committed a foul against the Go Ahead Eagles.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mathis Suray from Go Ahead Eagles attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
37
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Kamal Sowah of NAC Breda had a close-range header following a corner kick but couldn't convert it.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Jakob Breum allowed the ball to go out.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Stefán Sigurdarson of Go Ahead Eagles attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt has been denied. Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was intercepted.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Clint Leemans from NAC Breda fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets intercepted.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after a deflection off Joris Kramer.
33
Update Update
Victor Edvardsen from Go Ahead Eagles committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
29
Update Update
Mathis Suray from Go Ahead Eagles has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Cherrion Valerius from NAC Breda committed a foul.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lewis Holtby from NAC Breda fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup came from Kamal Sowah, who delivered a cross.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after a play that resulted in a deflection off Jaden Slory.
27
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Cherrion Valerius from NAC Breda attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Boy Kemper, who provided a header following a corner kick.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kamal Sowah from NAC Breda attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
24
Update Update
Joris Kramer committed a foul for Go Ahead Eagles.
24
Update Update
Boyd Lucassen from NAC Breda earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Go Ahead Eagles after Clint Leemans allowed the ball to go out of play.
22
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Go Ahead Eagles after Denis Odoi allowed the ball to go out of play.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Stefán Sigurdarson from Go Ahead Eagles fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
18
Update Update
NAC Breda has been flagged for offside. André Ayew is caught in an offside position.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Go Ahead Eagles. Jaden Slory has been flagged for being in an offside position.
15
Update Update
Boyd Lucassen from NAC Breda was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
Jakob Breum committed a foul on a player from Go Ahead Eagles.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mathis Suray from Go Ahead Eagles attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide after a quick counterattack.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Go Ahead Eagles take the lead, 1-0 against NAC Breda! Mathis Suray finds the net with a powerful right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top right corner. The assist comes from Victor Edvardsen, who set him up following a quick counterattack.
9
Update Update
Boy Kemper from NAC Breda committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Aske Adelgaard from Go Ahead Eagles has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Melle Meulensteen allowed the ball to go out.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Go Ahead Eagles. Stefán Sigurdarson has been flagged for being offside.
3
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Victor Edvardsen of Go Ahead Eagles took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Dean James following a corner kick.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Go Ahead Eagles, following a foul by Boy Kemper.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Go Ahead Eagles exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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