Glentoran vs Rīgas FS Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Melvin Sports Complex Today - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Glentoran Glentoran
1 Winner 2
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
Full Time Today 6:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Zeno Ibsen Rossi - 38'
Goal
|
Goal
Martins Kigurs - 70', 45'

CONTEXT

Glentoran hosted Rīgas FS in the opening leg of their two-match tie. The contest ended 1-2 to the visitors after a 1-1 scoreline at halftime. Rīgas FS controlled 61 percent of possession while Glentoran held 39 percent. Although Glentoran entered as the stronger side, the away team claimed victory through second-half goals. No red cards were issued during the match. A significant 44.6 percent deviation was recorded in favor of Rīgas FS, yet the outcome stayed consistent with market alignment. The result leaves the tie finely poised ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rīgas FS recorded a significant 44.6 percent structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match projections throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable so alignment with the scoreline could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with market expectations despite the noted deviation.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were provided so expectations could not be compared against actual events.
  • Event impact: Second-half goals from Rīgas FS proved decisive in producing the 1-2 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Hardie

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

G. Stewart

1st Assistant

Scotland

A. Taylor

2nd Assistant

Scotland

C. Scott

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Glentoran Glentoran
Glentoran
VS
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Glentoran
20.5%
Draw
24.16%
Away Rīgas FS
55.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
Glentoran
+19.87%
Draw
+20.48%
Rīgas FS
-40.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Glentoran — Opponent-weighted form score
Rīgas FS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Glentoran Rīgas FS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Glentoran

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rīgas FS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Glentoran ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rīgas FS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Glentoran
vs
Rīgas FS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Glentoran 0.00
Rīgas FS 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Glentoran 0.00
Rīgas FS 0.00
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rīgas FS had peak pressure around 22'.
  • Rīgas FS started the game with stronger pressure.
Glentoran Pressure Rīgas FS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rīgas FS reached the top pressure at 22' (54.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Glentoran Glentoran Home
0 matches
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:06:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Melvin Sports Complex
Capacity :
26556
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ross Hardie
Graeme Stewart
Alaistair Taylor
Calum Scott

Statistics

Possession
Glentoran
42%
Rīgas FS
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Shots 10
30 Dangerous attacks 53
39 Possession 61
3 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

53 Ball Safe 59
7 Goal Attempts 9
2 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 25
1 Assists 1

Attacking

72 Attacks 98

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 7

Squad

Referee : Ross Hardie

Squad ▼

1
Andrew Mills
Andrew Mills Goalkeeper
23
Billy Crellin
Billy Crellin Goalkeeper
33
Lorcan Donnelly
Lorcan Donnelly Goalkeeper
31
Milo Beimers
Milo Beimers Goalkeeper
2
Ryan Cooney
Ryan Cooney Defender
3
Marcus Kane
Marcus Kane Defender
27
James Singleton
James Singleton Defender
26
Jarlath O'Rourke
Jarlath O'Rourke Defender
20
Daniel Larmour
Daniel Larmour Defender
24
Owen O'Neill
Owen O'Neill Defender
10
Jordan Stewart
Jordan Stewart Midfielder
67
Aaron McEneff
Aaron McEneff Midfielder
—
Gregory Sloggett
Gregory Sloggett Midfielder
5
Joshua Kelly
Joshua Kelly Midfielder
6
Joseph Thomson
Joseph Thomson Midfielder
17
Liam Burt
Liam Burt Midfielder
37
Jack Malone
Jack Malone Midfielder
21
Charlie Lindsay
Charlie Lindsay Midfielder
44
James Douglas
James Douglas Midfielder
9
Patrick Hoban
Patrick Hoban Attacker
57
Joshua Daniels
Joshua Daniels Attacker
36
Ross Clarke
Ross Clarke Attacker
14
Nathaniel Ferris
Nathaniel Ferris Attacker
30
Jordan Jenkins
Jordan Jenkins Attacker
25
Ben Gallagher
Ben Gallagher Attacker
47
Casey Smyth
Casey Smyth Attacker
35
Cal Weatherup
Cal Weatherup Attacker
45
Jude Johnson
Jude Johnson Attacker
Referee : Ross Hardie

Squad ▼

35
Marko Marić
Marko Marić Goalkeeper
16
Jevgēņijs Nerugals
Jevgēņijs Nerugals Goalkeeper
1
Rihards Matrevics
Rihards Matrevics Goalkeeper
—
Sergejs Vilkovs
Sergejs Vilkovs Goalkeeper
—
Janis Beks
Janis Beks Goalkeeper
23
Herdi Prenga
Herdi Prenga Defender
11
Roberts Savaļnieks
Roberts Savaļnieks Defender
6
Aleksandar Filipović
Aleksandar Filipović Defender
43
Žiga Lipušček
Žiga Lipušček Defender
4
Roberts Veips
Roberts Veips Defender
5
Niks Sliede
Niks Sliede Defender
99
Shina Kumater
Shina Kumater Defender
10
Jānis Ikaunieks
Jānis Ikaunieks Midfielder
26
Stefan Panić
Stefan Panić Midfielder
49
Mārtiņš Ķigurs
Mārtiņš Ķigurs Midfielder
2
27
Matheus dos Santos Clemente
Matheus dos Santos Clemente Midfielder
18
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs Midfielder
30
Haruna Rasid Njie
Haruna Rasid Njie Midfielder
81
Strahinja Rakić
Strahinja Rakić Midfielder
66
Modou Saidy
Modou Saidy Midfielder
22
Darko Lemajić
Darko Lemajić Attacker
77
Gauthier Mankenda
Gauthier Mankenda Attacker
17
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio Attacker
8
Lasha Odisharia
Lasha Odisharia Attacker
70
Mor Talla Gaye
Mor Talla Gaye Attacker
7
Ismael Diomandé
Ismael Diomandé Attacker
3
Victor Uchechukwu Osuagwu
Victor Uchechukwu Osuagwu Attacker
24
Mikaze Nagasawa
Mikaze Nagasawa Attacker
15
Rostand Ndjiki
Rostand Ndjiki Attacker
20
Kingsley Udukwu Emenike
Kingsley Udukwu Emenike Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordan Stewart
5th Yellowcard
90'
86'
Event
Roberts Savalnieks
4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Lasha Odisharia
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Stewart → Jordan Jenkins
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Darko Lemajic → Rostand Ndjiki
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Gauthier Mankenda → Janis Ikaunieks
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Roberts Savalnieks → Aleksandar Filipović
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Martins Kigurs
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ross Clarke → Joshua Kelly
3rd Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Lasha Odisharia → Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
2nd Substitution
Event
Ryan Cooney
2nd Yellowcard
59'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Martins Kigurs
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Pat Hoban
1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Zeno Ibsen Rossi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
32'
Event
Martins Kigurs → Ismael Diomande
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martins Kigurs receives a yellow card.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Roberts Savalnieks.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
75
Update Update
On comes Jordan Jenkins, off goes Jordan Stewart.
73
Update Update
Roberts Savalnieks is on, and Aleksandar Filipovic is off.
73
Update Update
Gauthier Mankenda is on, and Janis Ikaunieks is off.
73
Update Update
Darko Lemajic is coming on for Rostand Ndjiki.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
64
Update Update
On comes Ross Clarke, off goes Joshua Kelly.
61
Update Update
Lasha Odisharia is on, and Dmitrijs Zelenkovs is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Cooney receives a yellow card.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
32
Update Update
Martins Kigurs is on, and Ismael Diomande is off.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ross Hardie.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Glentoran 1-2 Rīgas FS. Structural assessment: Rīgas FS exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Glentoran vs Rīgas FS preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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