Genoa vs Como Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Sun, 26 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Genoa GEN
0 Winner 2
Como COM
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Assane Diao  - 68'
Anastasios Douvikas  - 10'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Genoa 0–2 Como. The result saw Como take the points. Como showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Como's win featured a 40.3% structural deviation, rated significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events or second-half adjustments occurred.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, so no distortion present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. La Penna

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Mastrodonato

1st Assistant

A. Colombo

4th Official

M. Ceolin

2nd Assistant

Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
VS
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pisa Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Udinese Rank: L
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Roma Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: L
Inter Rank: L
Udinese Rank: D
Pisa Rank: W
Roma Rank: W
Cagliari Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genoa
16.41%
Draw
23.94%
Away Como
59.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Genoa
+16.19%
Draw
+22.02%
Como
-38.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.46
25.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genoa
Como
Power Score
24.46
25.53
League Position
14
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genoa Como

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.20
19.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.20
22.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genoa +0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Como -0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
Como
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genoa Como
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genoa Como
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
Como
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Genoa
vs
Como
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Genoa Como
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Genoa 0.21
Como 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Genoa Como
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Genoa 0.06
Como 0.00
Genoa
Como
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COM had peak pressure around 36'.
  • COM started the game with stronger pressure.
GEN Pressure COM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: COM reached the top pressure at 36' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genoa GEN Home
5 matches
Como COM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:03:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Bijlow
Substitution
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
S. Otoa
Substitution
Denmark
34 S. Otoa
S. Sabelli
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Sabelli
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
Substitution
Brazil
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
J. Ekhator
Substitution
Nigeria
21 J. Ekhator
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
Pitch
J. Butez
France
1 J. Butez
?. Valle Gómez
Spain
3 ?. Valle Gómez
D. Santos Silva
Substitution
Brazil
34 D. Santos Silva
J. Naveros
Spain
14 J. Naveros
I. Smolčić
Croatia
28 I. Smolčić
L. Da Cunha
France
33 L. Da Cunha
M. Perrone
Argentina
23 M. Perrone
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
20 M. Baturina
N. Paz Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
10 N. Paz Martínez
A. Diao Diaoune
Substitution
Senegal
38 A. Diao Diaoune
A. Douvikas
Substitution
Greece
11 A. Douvikas

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Attendance :
31901
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Federico La Penna
Vito Mastrodonato
Andrea Colombo
Marco Ceolin

Statistics

Possession
GEN
50%
COM
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 32
50 Possession 50
2 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 7
0 Assists 2
20 Dribble Attempts 13
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
10 Successful Dribbles 8
14 Successful Headers 11
17 Throwins 17
67 Ball Safe 78
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 4
5 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

66 Attacks 61
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

7 Key Passes 7
22 Successful Long Passes 32
376 Successful Passes 388
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85
52 Long Passes 58
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
460 Passes 454

Defensive

63 Duels Won 49
6 Interceptions 10
0 Saves 1
24 Tackles 18

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.87
1
Nicola Leali
Nicola Leali
Goalkeeper46'
6.67
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
7.1
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.57
34
Sebastian Otoa
Sebastian Otoa Defender
6.79
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias
Attacker57'
6.88
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Midfielder
6.57
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Midfielder70'
7.02
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.67
70
Maxwel Cornet
Maxwel Cornet
Attacker81'
6.37
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Midfielder
6.84
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
6.87
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.59
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Attacker
6.78
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator Attacker
6.6
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo
Attacker70'
6.7
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

1
Jean Butez
Jean Butez Goalkeeper
7.07
3
Álex Valle
Álex Valle Defender
6.85
14
Jacobo Ramón
Jacobo Ramón Defender
7.01
28
Ivan Smolcic
Ivan Smolcic Defender
6.87
34
Diego Carlos
Diego Carlos Defender
6.87
2
Marc Oliver Kempf
Marc Oliver Kempf
Defender57'
6.86
10
Nico Paz
Nico Paz Midfielder
7.55
6
Maxence Caqueret
Maxence Caqueret
Midfielder46'
6.89
20
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
7.1
19
Nicolas Kühn
Nicolas Kühn
Attacker90+4'
6.62
23
Máximo Perrone
Máximo Perrone Midfielder
7.01
33
Lucas Da Cunha
Lucas Da Cunha Midfielder
7.06
38
Assane Diao
Assane Diao Midfielder
6.69
77
Ignace Van der Brempt
Ignace Van der Brempt
Defender81'
6.6
11
Anastasios Douvikas
Anastasios Douvikas Attacker
6.84
7
Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata
Attacker81'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Nicolas Kühn → Martin Baturina
10th Substitution
Event
Junior Messias
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Marc Oliver Kempf
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Maxwel Cornet → Stefano Sabelli
8th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Álvaro Morata → Anastasios Douvikas 
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Ignace Van der Brempt → Assane Diao 
7th Substitution
Event
Ruslan Malinovskyi → Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Lorenzo Colombo → Jeff Ekhator
5th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Assane Diao 
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Junior Messias → Sebastian Otoa
4th Substitution
57'
57'
Event
Marc Oliver Kempf → Diego Carlos
3rd Substitution
Event
Nicola Leali → Justin Bijlow
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Maxence Caqueret → Nico Paz
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Assane Diao 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
Event
Diego Carlos
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Anastasios Douvikas 
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa wins a free kick on the left wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Maxwel Cornet provided the assist.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jacobo Ramón from Como.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marc Oliver Kempf from Como receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Messias of Genoa receives a yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Nicolas Kühn comes on for Martin Baturina.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Smolcic of Como.
90
Update Update
Foul by Máximo Perrone for Como.
90
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Genoa losing 0-2 to Como.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from long range on the left, but it goes too high from a direct free kick.
89
Attempt Attempt
Junior Messias from Genoa misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. He was assisted by Morten Frendrup.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Ruslan Malinovskyi of Genoa.
88
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Álvaro Morata wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Morten Frendrup of Genoa.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Maxwel Cornet comes on for Stefano Sabelli.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Ignace Van der Brempt comes on for Assane Diao.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Álvaro Morata comes on for Tasos Douvikas.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Tasos Douvikas of Como.
80
Update Update
Alessandro Marcandalli from Genoa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Update Update
Offside called against Como. Tasos Douvikas is caught offside.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Johan Vásquez concedes.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Stefano Sabelli of Genoa.
77
Update Update
Lucas da Cunha from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
76
Update Update
Foul by Álex Valle of Como.
76
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli wins a free kick for Genoa on the right wing.
74
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Junior Messias of Genoa has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that is blocked.
73
Update Update
Álex Valle from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Østigård of Genoa.
71
Update Update
Junior Messias of Genoa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
71
Update Update
Foul by Jacobo Ramón of Como.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Lorenzo Colombo comes on for Jeff Ekhator.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Ruslan Malinovskyi comes on for Alex Amorim.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Como leads 2-0 with Assane Diao scoring a header from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Maxence Caqueret.
68
Attempt Attempt
Maxence Caqueret from Como misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right. He was assisted by Martin Baturina.
65
Corner Corner
Genoa wins a corner after Jacobo Ramón concedes.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ellertsson's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Alex Amorim with a through ball.
63
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Junior Messias of Genoa with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
62
Update Update
Foul by Jeff Ekhator of Genoa.
62
Update Update
Jean Butez from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Stefano Sabelli of Genoa.
61
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas of Como wins a free kick on the left wing.
59
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Tasos Douvikas from Como.
58
Update Update
Offside called against Genoa. Alex Amorim is flagged for offside.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Marc Oliver Kempf comes on for Diego Carlos.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Junior Messias comes on for Sebastian Otoa.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Johan Vásquez of Genoa.
56
Update Update
Assane Diao from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
54
Attempt Attempt
Máximo Perrone's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Martin Baturina.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego Carlos - Como.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego Carlos - Como.
54
Update Update
Vítinha wins a free kick for Genoa in the attacking half.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Maxence Caqueret for Como.
51
Update Update
Offside for Genoa. Leo Østigård is flagged for offside.
51
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli wins a free kick for Genoa in the attacking half.
47
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Johan Vásquez of Genoa.
46
Corner Corner
Genoa wins a corner after Diego Carlos concedes.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Nicola Leali comes on for Justin Bijlow due to an injury.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Genoa 0, Como 1.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Genoa trailing Como 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Maxence Caqueret comes on for Nico Paz due to an injury.
45
Update Update
Foul by Diego Carlos for Como.
45
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson of Genoa wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Assane Diao of Como is caught offside.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeff Ekhator of Genoa.
44
Update Update
Diego Carlos from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
42
Update Update
Foul by Máximo Perrone for Como.
42
Update Update
Johan Vásquez wins a free kick for Genoa in the defensive half.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Stefano Sabelli of Genoa.
41
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas from Como wins a free kick on the left wing.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Assane Diao of Como.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Assane Diao from Como receives a yellow card for a foul.
39
Update Update
Morten Frendrup of Genoa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
38
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Otoa's header from the center of the box is saved by Jean Butez in the top center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Leo Østigård with a headed pass.
37
Update Update
Foul by Diego Carlos for Como.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diego Carlos from Como receives a yellow card.
37
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa wins a free kick in the attacking half.
35
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego Carlos for Como.
34
Update Update
Nico Paz from Como heads the ball and hits the right post from the center of the box, with an assist from Álex Valle's cross.
34
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Vítinha from Genoa.
33
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ivan Smolcic from Como takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box but misses to the left.
29
Corner Corner
Diego Carlos from Como misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. Lucas da Cunha assisted with a cross after a corner.
29
Corner Corner
Como wins a corner after Johan Vásquez concedes.
29
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Alessandro Marcandalli of Genoa.
23
Attempt Attempt
Nico Paz from Como misses a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending the ball to the right. Martin Baturina provided the assist.
21
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Tasos Douvikas from Como.
20
Update Update
Vítinha is caught offside for Genoa.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikael Ellertsson of Genoa.
18
Update Update
Álex Valle from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Stefano Sabelli of Genoa.
15
Update Update
Álex Valle from Como wins a free kick in the attacking half.
15
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Assane Diao of Como.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego Carlos - Como.
11
Update Update
Alex Amorim from Genoa wins a free kick on the right wing.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Como takes the lead 1-0 against Genoa. Tasos Douvikas scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Lucas da Cunha's cross.
8
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Vítinha from Genoa takes a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right, but it goes close and misses to the right. Jeff Ekhator provided the assist with a through ball.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a foul by Sebastian Otoa.
6
Update Update
Máximo Perrone from Como is caught offside.
3
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Marcandalli of Genoa.

CONCLUSION

Como's 0-2 triumph over Genoa underscores their superiority in this even-possession affair, with goals in both halves sealing the deal. Genoa's inability to convert possession into threats exposed vulnerabilities against Como's organized defense. As the pre-designated stronger team, Como delivered a performance with notable deviation, staying efficient throughout. Without red cards or disruptions, the result stands as a fair reflection of Como's edge. This victory boosts Como's momentum, while Genoa must address finishing woes. Overall, the match affirmed Como's quality on the road, providing a solid foundation for future fixtures.

Genoa vs Como preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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