Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Serie A
Genoa GEN
1 Winner 2
AC Milan MIL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
Johan Vásquez - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Zachary Athekame - 81'
Christopher Nkunku - 50' (P)

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Serie A match Genoa hosted AC Milan and fell to a 1-2 defeat after a scoreless first half. Genoa dominated possession with 62 percent but could not convert their territorial advantage into enough clear chances. AC Milan stayed compact and clinical on the counter to claim all three points. Expected goals finished at 1.58 for the home side and 1.8 for the visitors underlining a narrow but deserved edge for the away team. No red cards were issued allowing both sides to maintain their intended structures for the full ninety minutes. The outcome proved consistent with the underlying numbers and confirmed AC Milan as the stronger side on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AC Milan recorded a significant 43.8 percent deviation from pre-match projections to claim the win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both Genoa and AC Milan.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with the xG figures of 1.58 for Genoa and 1.8 for AC Milan.
  • Market alignment: The outcome stayed consistent with overall market alignment for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: AC Milan met xG expectations while securing the 1-2 victory on the road.
  • Event impact: Second-half events proved decisive in turning the 0-0 halftime score into a 1-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured the match proceeded without any red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Sozza

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lo Cicero

1st Assistant

Italy

D. Cecconi

2nd Assistant

Italy

M. Marchetti

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Como Rank: 82 L
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 W
Juventus Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Udinese Rank: 76 L
Napoli Rank: 85 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 8 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genoa
17.98%
Draw
25.81%
Away AC Milan
56.21%

Movement

Changes since opening
Genoa
+17.79%
Draw
+22.08%
AC Milan
-39.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.21
83.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genoa
AC Milan
Power Score
74.21
83.71
League Position
14
3
Global Rank
125
40

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genoa AC Milan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.44
24.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.87
19.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genoa -0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
AC Milan +0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
AC Milan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genoa
vs
AC Milan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genoa AC Milan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genoa AC Milan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Genoa
AC Milan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Genoa
vs
AC Milan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Genoa AC Milan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Genoa 0.52
AC Milan 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Genoa AC Milan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Genoa 0.07
AC Milan 0.05
Genoa
AC Milan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GEN had peak pressure around 88'.
  • GEN started the game with stronger pressure.
GEN Pressure MIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GEN reached the top pressure at 88' (92.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genoa GEN Home
36 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
8
Draws
8
21
Losses
7
Goals
31
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
31
-22
Goal Difference
+22

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
S. Otoa
Denmark
34 S. Otoa
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 (C) J. Vásquez Ibarra
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
Substitution
Brazil
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
R. Malinovskiy
Ukraine
17 R. Malinovskiy
T. Baldanzi
Substitution
Italy
8 T. Baldanzi
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
L. Colombo
Substitution
Italy
29 L. Colombo
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 (C) M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
F. Tomori
Substitution
England
23 F. Tomori
D. Bartesaghi
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
A. Jasari
Substitution
Switzerland
30 A. Jasari
Y. Fofana
Substitution
France
19 Y. Fofana
Z. Athekame
Switzerland
24 Z. Athekame
C. Nkunku
Substitution
France
18 C. Nkunku
S. Giménez
Substitution
Mexico
7 S. Giménez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Attendance :
31302
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Sozza
Alessandro Lo Cicero
Dario Cecconi
Matteo Marchetti

Statistics

Possession
GEN
60%
MIL
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 8
21 Dangerous attacks 29
62 Possession 38
4 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 15
12 Dribble Attempts 13
17 Successful Headers 9
20 Throwins 13
6 Goal Kicks 13
8 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Penalties 1
3 Substitutions 5
60 Ball Safe 60
1 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 6
0 Assists 1

Attacking

79 Attacks 65
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

404 Successful Passes 227
6 Key Passes 6
477 Passes 288
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
48 Long Passes 46
26 Successful Long Passes 20
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

59 Duels Won 33
17 Tackles 14
4 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 1

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 12
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

8 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.75
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez (C) Defender
7.3
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.73
34
Sebastian Otoa
Sebastian Otoa Defender
6.33
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Defender
6.25
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Midfielder
7.33
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín
Defender90+1'
6.75
8
Tommaso Baldanzi
Tommaso Baldanzi Midfielder
6.29
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator
Attacker64'
6.38
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.64
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder
7.21
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
7.24
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
6.68
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban
Attacker85'
6.67
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan (C) Goalkeeper
6.52
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.56
5
Koni De Winter
Koni De Winter
Defender76'
6.35
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.21
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.22
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
6.53
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.45
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci
Midfielder68'
6.43
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame Midfielder
7.23
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Midfielder
6.49
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Midfielder85'
6.52
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
6.58
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez Attacker
6.56
9
Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug
Attacker68'
6.78
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
7.42
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic
Midfielder76'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aarón Martín → Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Johan Vásquez
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
86'
Event
Samuele Ricci
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Caleb Ekuban → Lorenzo Colombo
7th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Ruben Loftus-Cheek  → Ardon Jashari
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Zachary Athekame
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
76'
Event
Koni De Winter → Fikayo Tomori
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Christian Pulisic → Christopher Nkunku
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Fikayo Tomori
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Samuele Ricci → Youssouf Fofana
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Niclas Füllkrug → Santiago Gimenez
2nd Substitution
Event
Jeff Ekhator → Tommaso Baldanzi
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Vitinha
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
62'
Event
Matteo Gabbia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Christopher Nkunku
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Justin Bijlow
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Aaron Caricol replaces Alexsandro Amorim.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pulisic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Johan Felipe Vasquez Ibarra takes a left-footed shot and scores.
86
Substitution Substitution
Ruben Loftus-Cheek is substituted for Ardon Jashari.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Samuele Ricci.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jeff Ekhator takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban comes on for Lorenzo Colombo.
83
Attempt Attempt
Jeff Ekhator takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zachary Athekame scores, making it 0-2.
81
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Athekame scores with a left-footed shot.
78
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Oliveira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Koni De Winter replaces Fikayo Tomori.
76
Update Update
Christian Pulisic is on, and Christopher Nkunku is off.
73
Update Update
Alessandro Marcandalli's header is blocked.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fikayo Tomori receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Niclas Fullkrug comes on for Santiago Gimenez.
68
Update Update
Samuele Ricci comes on for Youssouf Fofana.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator is on, and Baldanzi Tommaso is off.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Gabbia receives a yellow card.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vitor Oliveira receives a yellow card.
59
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Christopher Nkunku scores, making it 1-0.
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Christopher Nkunku with his right foot results in a goal.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Justin Bijlow receives a yellow card.
39
Attempt Attempt
Youssouf Fofana's shot with another body part is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Gimenez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Baldanzi Tommaso takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Oliveira takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan. Structural assessment: AC Milan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Genoa vs AC Milan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.