Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Sun, 17 May - 10:30 AM
Serie A
Genoa GEN
Versus
AC Milan MIL
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 10:30 AM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Genoa host AC Milan in Serie A (Regular Season) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Domestically, Genoa sit 14th in the table while AC Milan are 4th. Power ranking favours AC Milan by 8.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: AC Milan holds a structural power advantage of 8.7 points with a score of 83.73 against Genoa's 75.04.
  • Form: Both teams enter with form scores of 0 and no last outings or form records available.
  • Squad: Squad details and changes are not specified in available data for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for Genoa and AC Milan.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence and proxy metrics used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent due to unavailable data and low confidence proxies.
  • Market: Genoa 19.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.3% (Δ+0%) | AC Milan 54.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Como Rank: 82 L
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Sassuolo Rank: 76 W
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Udinese Rank: 77 L
Napoli Rank: 85 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 8 - 21
21
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genoa
19.93%
Draw
25.33%
Away AC Milan
54.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.04
83.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genoa
AC Milan
Power Score
75.04
83.73
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
115
42

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genoa AC Milan

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genoa GEN Home
0 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:45:43+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Bijlow
16 J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
27 A. Marcandalli
L. Skiri Oestigaard
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
N. Zätterström
13 N. Zätterström
M. Ellertsson
77 M. Ellertsson
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
M. Frendrup
32 M. Frendrup
A. Martín Caricol
3 A. Martín Caricol
J. Ekhator
21 J. Ekhator
V. Carvalho Oliveira
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
L. Colombo
29 L. Colombo
Pitch
M. Maignan
16 M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
31 S. Pavlović
M. Gabbia
46 M. Gabbia
F. Tomori
23 F. Tomori
D. Bartesaghi
33 D. Bartesaghi
A. Rabiot
12 A. Rabiot
S. Ricci
4 S. Ricci
R. Loftus-Cheek
8 R. Loftus-Cheek
Z. Athekame
24 Z. Athekame
S. Giménez
7 S. Giménez
C. Nkunku
18 C. Nkunku

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.93
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín Midfielder
6.95
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.76
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator Midfielder
6.63
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.57
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Centre Forward
6.7
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Central Midfield
6.71
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Centre Back
7.13
13
Nils Zätterström
Nils Zätterström Left Back
6.51
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Right Back
6.6
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Central Midfield
6.87

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.05
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame Midfielder
6.6
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
6.94
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
6.78
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez Attacker
6.56
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Centre Back
6.88
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci Central Midfield
6.82
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Central Midfield
7.27
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Ruben Loftus-Cheek Central Midfield
6.69
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Right Back
6.89
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Left Back
7

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward AC Milan holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give AC Milan a 8.7-point edge. External projection is Genoa 20.2%, draw 25.2%, and AC Milan 54.6%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Genoa vs AC Milan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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