Genk vs Westerlo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Sun, 10 May - 5:15 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
3 Winner 0
Westerlo KVC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 5:15 PM
Round 7 Conference League Play-off Group
Junya Ito - 84'
Robin Mirisola - 69'
Aaron Bibout - 64'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Genk 3–0 Westerlo. The result saw Genk take the points. Genk showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk recorded minimal structural deviation of 4.6% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned fully with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Bourdeaud'hui

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Van Dyck

2nd Assistant

Belgium

B. Gonnissen

1st Assistant

Belgium

M. Simonini

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.35
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 L
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 D
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
OH Leuven Rank: 64 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: 64 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Genk Rank: 76 L
Standard Liège Rank: 72 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 72 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
95.39%
Draw
3.67%
Away Westerlo
0.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.08
70.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
Westerlo
Power Score
77.08
70.15
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
91
208

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk Westerlo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.10
34.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.80
34.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genk -0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Westerlo +0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Westerlo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genk Westerlo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genk Westerlo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Westerlo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Genk
vs
Westerlo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Genk Westerlo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Genk 0.37
Westerlo 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Genk Westerlo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Genk 0.00
Westerlo 0.07
Genk
Westerlo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 64'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure KVC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 64' (71.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
31 matches
Westerlo KVC Away
Match Record
18
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
18
Goals
55
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
55
+24
Goal Difference
-24

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:06:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
J. Kayembe Ditu
Belgium
18 J. Kayembe Ditu
I. Bangoura
Substitution
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
B. Heynen
Substitution
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
K. Karetsas
Substitution
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
D. Heymans
Substitution
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
A. Bibout
Cameroon
23 A. Bibout
Pitch
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
L. Mbamba-Muanda
Belgium
23 L. Mbamba-Muanda
S. Kimura
Japan
5 S. Kimura
E. Bayram
Türkiye
40 E. Bayram
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
A. Piedfort
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
D. Haspolat
Netherlands
34 D. Haspolat
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
I. Sakamoto
Substitution
Japan
13 I. Sakamoto
A. Sayyadmanesh
Substitution
Iran
7 A. Sayyadmanesh
I. Ferri Julià
Substitution
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Luminus Arena
Capacity :
24956
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jonas Van Dyck
Ben Gonnissen
Matonga Simonini
Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Statistics

Possession
GNK
50%
KVC
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 7
41 Dangerous attacks 48
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 11
63 Ball Safe 46
5 Substitutions 4
27 Throwins 13
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
6 Successful Dribbles 8
13 Dribble Attempts 21
7 Goal Kicks 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 0

Attacking

91 Attacks 77
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

317 Successful Passes 330
39 Long Passes 53
21 Successful Long Passes 26
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
13 Key Passes 13
384 Passes 392
83 Successful Passes Percentage 84

Defensive

32 Tackles 26
6 Interceptions 10
54 Duels Won 61
4 Saves 1

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 4
15 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

12 Fouls 9
7 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe Defender
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
24
Nikolas Sattlberger
Nikolas Sattlberger
Midfielder88'
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
30
Ayumu Yokoyama
Ayumu Yokoyama
Attacker88'
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielder
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Attacker33'
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
56
August De Wannemacker
August De Wannemacker
Midfielder88'
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola
Attacker45'
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout Attacker
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
5
Seiji Kimura
Seiji Kimura Defender
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
23
Lucas Mbamba
Lucas Mbamba Defender
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
7
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Midfielder
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito
Attacker74'
13
Isa Sakamoto
Isa Sakamoto Midfielder
10
Afonso Patrão
Afonso Patrão
Attacker74'
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
11
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Attacker87'
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
29
Fernand Goure
Fernand Goure
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nikolas Sattlberger → Bryan Heynen
7th Substitution
88'
Event
August De Wannemacker → Ibrahima Bangoura
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Ayumu Yokoyama → Junya Ito
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni → Josimar Alcócer
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Fernand Goure → Nacho Ferri
5th Substitution
Event
Junya Ito
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
74'
Event
Shunsuke Saito → Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Isa Sakamoto
3rd Substitution
Event
Robin Mirisola
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
69'
67'
Event
Bryan Reynolds
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Aaron Bibout
Header / 1st Goal
64'
51'
Event
Nacho Ferri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Robin Mirisola → Daan Heymans
2nd Substitution
45'
Event
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg → Konstantinos Karetsas
1st Substitution
33'
Event
Joris Kayembe
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Mbamba-Muanda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
August De Wannemacker takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Dogucan Haspolat takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
88
Update Update
Ayumu Yokoyama comes on for Junya Ito.
88
Update Update
Nikolas Sattlberger replaces Bryan Heynen.
88
Update Update
On August De Wannemacker comes on for Ibrahima Sory Bangoura.
87
Update Update
Bi Irie Fernand Goure comes on for Nacho Ferri.
87
Update Update
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni comes on for Josimar Alcocer.
84
Attempt Attempt
Junya Ito scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Matte Smets takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Ferri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Piedfort takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Shunsuke Saito is on, and Allahyar Sayyadmanesh is off.
74
Update Update
Afonso Patrao comes on for Isa Sakamoto.
73
Attempt Attempt
Josimar Alcocer takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
71
Update Update
Lucas Mbamba-Muanda attempts a header but misses the target.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robin Mirisola scores, making it 2-0.
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Robin Mirisola takes a right-footed shot and scores.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bryan Reynolds receives a yellow card.
64
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a shot with his head and scores.
59
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Robin Mirisola takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
56
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Mbamba-Muanda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Joris Kayembe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
52
Attempt Attempt
Isa Sakamoto takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nacho Ferri receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matte Smets takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Update Update
Robin Mirisola is on, and Daan Heymans is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Isa Sakamoto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Josimar Alcocer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Update Update
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg is on, and Konstantinos Karetsas is off.
26
Attempt Attempt
Dogucan Haspolat takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Konstantinos Karetsas has a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Genk's 3-0 win over Westerlo validates their status as the stronger team, turning a balanced first half into a second-half masterclass. With even possession and no red cards, the hosts' efficiency and clinical finishing proved decisive. This minimal-deviation result aligns with expectations, reinforcing Genk's reliability. Westerlo's inability to convert parity into threats highlights defensive frailties. For Genk, the clean sheet and comfortable margin signal positive momentum ahead, while Westerlo must address second-half collapses. Overall, the match unfolded predictably, rewarding the favorites with a straightforward victory.

Genk vs Westerlo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League, Belgium View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ