Genk vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Tue, 21 Apr - 6:30 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
1 – 1
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 4 Conference League Play-off Group
Mardochée Nzita - 86' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Étienne Camara - 13'

CONTEXT

In the Belgian Pro League clash at Luminus Arena, Genk, considered the stronger side, were held to a frustrating 1-1 draw by Sporting Charleroi. The visitors struck first, leading 0-1 at halftime, capitalizing on their defensive resilience despite Genk's 61% possession dominance compared to Charleroi's 39%. Genk mounted a comeback in the second half, equalizing to salvage a point, but failed to convert their territorial advantage into a win. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the match featured no notable second-half tactical adjustments. This result highlighted Genk's moderate 8.2% structural deviation, yet the outcome proved consistent with pre-match market alignments. Both teams displayed efficiency in line with expectations, underscoring a tactical stalemate where possession did not translate to victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk recorded a moderate 8.2% structural deviation in the draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be met due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match's progression.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Laforge

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Conotte

1st Assistant

V. Divincenzo

2nd Assistant

M. Ledda

4th Official

Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Dender Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 12 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Sporting Charleroi
3.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Genk
-0.58%
Draw
+0.95%
Sporting Charleroi
-0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.37
16.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
24.37
16.33
League Position
7
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.08
35.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.00
40.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genk +0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi -0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genk Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genk Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Genk
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Genk Sporting Charleroi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Genk 0.30
Sporting Charleroi 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Genk Sporting Charleroi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Genk 0.03
Sporting Charleroi 0.01
Genk
Sporting Charleroi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 41'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure SPC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 41' (89.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
48 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
21
Wins
15
12
Draws
12
15
Losses
21
Goals
77
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
77
+17
Goal Difference
-17

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:03:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
M. Sadick Aliu
Spain
3 M. Sadick Aliu
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
Y. Medina Ortiz
Substitution
Ecuador
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
I. Bangoura
Substitution
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
D. Heymans
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
Substitution
Belgium
32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg
A. Bibout
Substitution
Cameroon
23 A. Bibout
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
L. Blum
Substitution
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
A. Boukamir
Substitution
Belgium
56 A. Boukamir
E. Camara
France
5 E. Camara
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Colassin
Substitution
Belgium
25 A. Colassin

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Luminus Arena
Capacity :
24956
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nicolas Laforge
Laurent Conotte
Vito Divincenzo
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
GNK
58%
SPC
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 3
69 Dangerous attacks 33
61 Possession 39
10 Corners 1
7 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
7 Goal Kicks 14
10 Dribble Attempts 14
22 Throwins 20
0 Assists 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0
5 Successful Dribbles 4
88 Ball Safe 99
16 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

126 Attacks 80
6 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes 30
47 Long Passes 69
438 Successful Passes 267
513 Passes 345
85 Successful Passes Percentage 77
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
14 Key Passes 10

Defensive

23 Tackles 13
10 Interceptions 11
4 Saves 6
50 Duels Won 51

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 10
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
6.71
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Defender
6.77
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
7.12
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Defender
6.78
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe
Defender63'
6.92
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
7.14
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
7.26
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
6.94
99
Jusef Erabi
Jusef Erabi
Attacker83'
6.64
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
6.73
7
Jarne Steuckers
Jarne Steuckers
Attacker83'
7.01
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg Midfielder
6.78
30
Ayumu Yokoyama
Ayumu Yokoyama
Attacker63'
7.01
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
7.25
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout Attacker
6.81
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola
Attacker63'
6.74
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.86
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
6.85
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
6.72
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.63
32
Mehdi Boukamir
Mehdi Boukamir
Defender81'
6.47
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.7
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
6.73
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.88
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
6.81
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder63'
6.72
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
6.82
9
Filip Szymczak
Filip Szymczak
Attacker81'
6.57
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir Midfielder
6.72
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder66'
6.67
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin Attacker
6.63
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler
Attacker63'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mardochée Nzita
Header / 1st Own Goal
86'
Event
Jusef Erabi → Junya Ito
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Jarne Steuckers → Ibrahima Bangoura
10th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Filip Szymczak → Antoine Bernier
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mehdi Boukamir → Lewin Blum
7th Substitution
Event
Ibrahima Bangoura
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
66'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Amine Boukamir
6th Substitution
Event
Ayumu Yokoyama → Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Robin Mirisola → Aaron Bibout
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Joris Kayembe → Yaimar Medina
1st Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Patrick Pflücke
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Aurélien Scheidler → Antoine Colassin
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Check Keita
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Daan Heymans
Woodwork
23'
13'
Event
Étienne Camara
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Genk's inability to overcome Sporting Charleroi despite superior possession and status as the stronger team resulted in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. Trailing at halftime, Genk's second-half response secured parity, but highlighted inefficiencies in front of goal. With no red cards or disruptive events, the game reflected balanced competition where Charleroi's defensive solidity earned a valuable point away. The moderate structural deviation for Genk and market alignment suggest this outcome was anticipated, pointing to a tactical battle with few clear edges. Both sides move forward with shared spoils, Genk rueing missed dominance.

Genk vs Sporting Charleroi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League, Belgium View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ