Genk vs OH Leuven Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium

Luminus Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM

Pro League

Genk GNK

0 – 0

OH Leuven OHL

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 2 Conference League Play-off Group

CONTEXT

The match between Genk and OH Leuven is finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. The teams were also level at half-time, with neither side able to create a breakthrough in a largely uneventful contest. Pre-match expectations had Genk as clear favorites at 57 percent for a home win, with a draw rated at only 24 percent. The goalless result therefore marked a significant deviation for Genk, who entered the fixture as the stronger team but failed to convert that status into victory. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, as the anticipated home success never materialized. OH Leuven controlled more of the ball with 57 percent possession to Genk’s 43 percent, yet both attacks remained blunt. No red cards were issued and no major events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout, leaving the final score as a fair reflection of a tightly contested but unproductive afternoon.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Genk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

W. Smet

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. De Cuyper

1st Assistant

N. Maszowez

2nd Assistant

K. Van Damme

4th Official

N. Hayen

F. Mazzù

1.48

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.24

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

13 - 4 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Genk

56.96%

Draw

24.04%

OH Leuven

18.99%

Movement

Changes since opening

Genk

+51.43%

Draw

-67.19%

OH Leuven

+15.75%

Team Power Ranking

24.49

18.52

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Genk

OH Leuven

Power Score

24.49

18.52

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Genk — Opponent-weighted form score

OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Genk

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genk ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy OH Leuven

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

42.33

16.32

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

16.32

42.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Genk +2.46 Efficiency Index

OH Leuven -2.46 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Genk

OH Leuven

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genk ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy OH Leuven

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Genk OH Leuven

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Genk OH Leuven

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Genk

OH Leuven

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Genk

OH Leuven

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Genk OH Leuven

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Genk OH Leuven

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Genk

OH Leuven

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

GNK had peak pressure around 26'.
OHL started the game with stronger pressure.

GNK Pressure OHL Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 26' (86.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home

20 matches

OH Leuven OHL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+24

Goal Difference

-24

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

28 L. Kiaba Mounganga

44 J. Ndenge Kongolo

3 M. Sadick Aliu

6 M. Smets

10 J. Ito

8 B. Heynen

21 I. Bangoura

77 Z. El Ouahdi

20 K. Karetsas

38 D. Heymans

29 R. Mirisola

16 M. Prévôt

5 T. Ominami

34 R. Nyakossi

28 E. Pletinckx

30 T. Akimoto

6 W. George

8 S. Schrijvers

27 Ó. Gil Regaño

10 Y. Maziz

39 S. Kaba

14 H. Teklab

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Conference League Play-off Group

Stadium :

Luminus Arena

Capacity :

24956

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Wim Smet

Michiel De Cuyper

Nicolas Maszowez

Kevin Van Damme

Statistics

Possession

GNK

45%

OHL

55%

Top Statistics

2 Big Chances Created 1

9 Shots 6

44 Dangerous attacks 46

43 Possession 57

3 Corners 2

9 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4

0 Injuries 4

63 Ball Safe 89

12 Goal Attempts 5

45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

11 Dribble Attempts 16

21 Throwins 17

6 Goal Kicks 10

5 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1

114 Attacks 120

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 79

23 Successful Long Passes 32

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

271 Successful Passes 379

357 Passes 477

12 Key Passes 6

50 Long Passes 77

Defensive

14 Interceptions 9

21 Tackles 18

1 Saves 6

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 16

5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Wim Smet

Manager ▼

N. Hayen Coach

Starting XI ▼

Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper

Mujaid Sadick Defender

Matte Smets Defender

Josué Kongolo Defender

Joris Kayembe

Defender65'

Bryan Heynen Midfielder

Junya Ito Midfielder

Yaimar Medina

Defender46'

Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder

Zakaria El Ouahdi Midfielder

Konstantinos Karetsas Attacker

Jarne Steuckers

Attacker65'

Robin Mirisola Attacker

Aaron Bibout

Attacker46'

Daan Heymans Attacker

Ayumu Yokoyama

Attacker76'

Substitutes ▼

Aaron Bibout

Attacker46'

Yaimar Medina

Defender46'

Joris Kayembe

Defender65'

Jarne Steuckers

Attacker65'

Ayumu Yokoyama

Attacker76'

Bench ▼

Hendrik Van Crombrugge Goalkeeper

Emile Doucouré Goalkeeper

Ken Nkuba Defender

Nikolas Sattlberger Midfielder

Yira Sor Attacker

Noah Adedeji-Sternberg Attacker

Referee : Wim Smet