Gençlerbirliği vs Kocaelispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Eryaman Stadyumu Sun, 26 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Gençlerbirliği GSK
1 Winner 0
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 31 Regular Season
Metehan Mimaroğlu - 34' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Gençlerbirliği claimed a narrow 1-0 home win against the stronger Kocaelispor, scoring the decisive goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite controlling just 36% possession compared to Kocaelispor's dominant 64%, the hosts showcased resolute defending to frustrate their opponents throughout. Kocaelispor pressed but failed to break through, as Gençlerbirliği absorbed pressure effectively in the second half. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable adjustments altered the flow post-interval. This result marks a minimal structural deviation of 4.8% for Gençlerbirliği, with efficiency in line with norms and full market alignment. The underdogs' tactical discipline proved key in overturning expectations against a side deemed superior on paper.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gençlerbirliği recorded minimal structural deviation of 4.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments impacted second half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Türkmen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Sesigüzel

1st Assistant

B. Erdemir

4th Official

M. Şener

2nd Assistant

Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
VS
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: D
Alanyaspor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gençlerbirliği
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Kocaelispor
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gençlerbirliği
+1.84%
Draw
-1.83%
Kocaelispor
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.5
22.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gençlerbirliği
Kocaelispor
Power Score
14.5
22.52
League Position
14
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gençlerbirliği Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.42
13.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.28
25.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gençlerbirliği +1.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Kocaelispor -1.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Kocaelispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gençlerbirliği Kocaelispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Kocaelispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Kocaelispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gençlerbirliği
vs
Kocaelispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gençlerbirliği Kocaelispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gençlerbirliği 0.35
Kocaelispor 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Kocaelispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gençlerbirliği 0.00
Kocaelispor 0.04
Gençlerbirliği
Kocaelispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kocaelispor had peak pressure around 83'.
  • GSK started the game with stronger pressure.
GSK Pressure Kocaelispor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kocaelispor reached the top pressure at 83' (76.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gençlerbirliği GSK Home
3 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:02:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
F. Üzüm
Türkiye
88 F. Üzüm
D. Goutas
Greece
6 D. Goutas
T. da Silva
Brazil
2 T. da Silva
A. Dursun
Türkiye
77 A. Dursun
O. Diabate
Guinea
42 O. Diabate
S. Onur
Substitution
Türkiye
8 S. Onur
A. Malouda Traoré
Mali
20 A. Malouda Traoré
F. Tongya Heubang
Substitution
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
M. Mimaroğlu
Substitution
Türkiye
10 M. Mimaroğlu
S. Koita
Substitution
Mali
22 S. Koita
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Türkiye
83 S. Öztaşdelen
M. Haïdara
Mali
21 M. Haïdara
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
A. Oğuz
Türkiye
22 A. Oğuz
H. Keita
Mali
8 H. Keita
K. Linetty
Substitution
Poland
10 K. Linetty
T. Bingöl
Substitution
Türkiye
75 T. Bingöl
J. Nonge Boende
Substitution
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
D. Agyei
Substitution
England
7 D. Agyei
R. Rivas Vindel
Substitution
Honduras
99 R. Rivas Vindel

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Eryaman Stadyumu
Capacity :
20560
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mehmet Türkmen
Ceyhun Sesigüzel
Berkay Erdemir
Murat Şener

Statistics

Possession
GSK
41%
Kocaelispor
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 0
23 Dangerous attacks 30
36 Possession 64
1 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 8
21 Throwins 28
7 Dribble Attempts 11
17 Successful Headers 17
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
3 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Penalties 0
6 Goal Attempts 3
47 Ball Safe 54
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 87
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

181 Successful Passes 374
71 Successful Passes Percentage 83
256 Passes 451
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
20 Successful Long Passes 28
60 Long Passes 59
3 Key Passes 4

Defensive

15 Tackles 9
3 Interceptions 3
45 Duels Won 43
0 Saves 1

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
7.07
2
Thalisson
Thalisson Defender
6.7
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Defender
6.91
77
Abdurrahim Dursun
Abdurrahim Dursun Defender
6.52
88
Fıratcan Üzüm
Fıratcan Üzüm Defender
6.33
8
Samed Onur
Samed Onur Midfielder
6.67
15
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Midfielder76'
6.79
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu Midfielder
6.8
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker86'
6.65
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré Midfielder
6.55
42
Ousmane Diabate
Ousmane Diabate Midfielder
6.64
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
6.73
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün
Midfielder68'
6.86
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Attacker
6.78
29
M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang
Attacker68'
6.79
Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
7.11
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6.69
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
7.02
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Defender
6.82
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
6.97
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
6.81
10
Karol Linetty
Karol Linetty Midfielder
6.72
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho
Midfielder46'
6.56
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl Midfielder
6.83
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov
Attacker62'
6.67
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.58
18
Furkan Gedik
Furkan Gedik
Attacker75'
6.49
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Attacker
6.6
11
Ahmet Sağat
Ahmet Sağat
Attacker90'
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas Attacker
6.56
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun
Attacker46'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ahmet Sağat → Joseph Nonge
9th Substitution
Event
Cihan Çanak → Metehan Mimaroğlu
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Tom Dele-Bashiru → Samed Onur
7th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Furkan Gedik → Dan Agyei
6th Substitution
Event
Oğulcan Ülgün → Franco Tongya
5th Substitution
68'
Event
M'Baye Niang → Sékou Koïta
4th Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Darko Churlinov → Tayfur Bingöl
3rd Substitution
Event
Ousmane Diabate
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Serdar Dursun → Rigoberto Rivas
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Mahamadou Susoho → Karol Linetty
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Volkan Demirel
3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Karol Linetty
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
34'
Event
Sékou Koïta
Penalty awarded
32'
Event
Volkan Demirel
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
32'

CONCLUSION

Gençlerbirliği's 1-0 victory exemplifies defensive mastery, holding off Kocaelispor's 64% possession dominance after an early first-half goal. The halftime lead of 1-0 set the tone, with the hosts efficiently managing threats without concessions. Minimal deviation and market alignment affirm the result's contextual fit, despite Kocaelispor's superior billing. No red cards or events skewed proceedings, underscoring Gençlerbirliği's preparedness. This win bolsters their momentum, highlighting tactical acumen in low-possession scenarios.

Gençlerbirliği vs Kocaelispor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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