Gençlerbirliği vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Eryaman Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Gençlerbirliği GSK
3 Winner 2
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
Full Time Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Franco Tongya - 70' (P)
Dimitrios Goutas - 45+4'
Adama Traoré - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrian Benedyczak - 12' (P), 1'

CONTEXT

Gençlerbirliği claimed a dramatic 3-2 win against Kasmpaşa in a high-stakes Süper Lig clash, overcoming the visitors who entered as the stronger side. The first half exploded into life with both teams scoring twice, ending level at 2-2 amid end-to-end action. Gençlerbirliği controlled possession at 61% to Kasmpaşa's 39%, dictating the tempo early. The turning point arrived in the second half when Kasmpaşa received a red card, tilting the balance. Despite the man advantage, the hosts grinded out the victory with a late decisive goal, showcasing resilience and sharp finishing. This outcome reflected minimal structural deviation, aligning closely with pre-match projections while the red card introduced clear second-half distortions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gençlerbirliği recorded minimal structural deviation of 4.4% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Home victory fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable with null data provided.
  • Event impact: Kasmpaşa's red card delivered substantial event impact on game flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Aydın

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Erdemir

4th Official

Türkiye

S. Özay

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

F. Ürün

1st Assistant

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.32
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
VS
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 76 L
Göztepe Rank: 74 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Göztepe Rank: 74 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gençlerbirliği
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Kasımpaşa
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gençlerbirliği
+0.89%
Draw
-0.89%
Kasımpaşa
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.58
65.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gençlerbirliği
Kasımpaşa
Power Score
57.58
65.8
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
311
305

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Kasımpaşa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gençlerbirliği
vs
Kasımpaşa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gençlerbirliği 0.00
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gençlerbirliği 0.00
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Gençlerbirliği
Kasımpaşa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GSK had peak pressure around 51'.
  • Kasımpaşa started the game with stronger pressure.
GSK Pressure Kasımpaşa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GSK reached the top pressure at 51' (93.86).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gençlerbirliği GSK Home
23 matches
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
8
Draws
8
6
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
29
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T16:30:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
Portugal
13 P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
D. Goutas
Greece
6 D. Goutas
Ž. Žužek
Slovenia
4 Ž. Žužek
A. Dursun
Substitution
Türkiye
77 A. Dursun
A. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
15 A. Dele-Bashiru
O. Ülgün
Türkiye
35 O. Ülgün
A. Malouda Traoré
Mali
20 A. Malouda Traoré
F. Tongya Heubang
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
M. Mimaroğlu
Substitution
Türkiye
10 M. Mimaroğlu
S. Koita
Substitution
Mali
22 S. Koita
Pitch
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
K. Çörekçi
Substitution
Türkiye
22 K. Çörekçi
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
R. Nascimiento Franca
Brazil
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
G. Owusu Frimpong
Netherlands
21 G. Owusu Frimpong
K. Demirbay
Substitution
Germany
26 K. Demirbay
A. Baldursson
Substitution
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
M. Ben Ouannes
Substitution
Tunisia
12 M. Ben Ouannes
F. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
İ. Kahveci
Türkiye
71 İ. Kahveci
A. Benedyczak
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Eryaman Stadyumu
Capacity :
20560
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Berkay Erdemir
Süleyman Özay
Furkan Ürün
C. Aydın

Statistics

Possession
GSK
56%
Kasımpaşa
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 7
50 Dangerous attacks 26
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 4
22 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 10
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Dribble Attempts 4
2 Assists 1
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 100
22 Throwins 30
18 Successful Headers 14
3 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 1
3 Goal Attempts 2
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 0
28 Ball Safe 37
2 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

96 Attacks 61
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

357 Passes 227
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
13 Key Passes 6
31 Successful Long Passes 17
268 Successful Passes 164
76 Long Passes 51
75 Successful Passes Percentage 72

Defensive

48 Duels Won 42
7 Tackles 13
4 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 5

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 17
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 23
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
7.02
4
Zan Zuzek
Zan Zuzek Defender
6.83
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Defender
6.9
13
Pedro Pereira
Pedro Pereira Defender
6.61
77
Abdurrahim Dursun
Abdurrahim Dursun Defender
6.59
88
Fıratcan Üzüm
Fıratcan Üzüm
Defender72'
6.55
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu Midfielder
6.79
42
Ousmane Diabate
Ousmane Diabate
Defender89'
6.91
15
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Tom Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
6.79
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré Midfielder
6.57
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün Midfielder
6.83
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
6.74
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Attacker
6.8
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker14'
6.65
Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
6.73
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
6.81
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong Defender
6.51
22
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Defender
6.77
11
Ali Yavuz Kol
Ali Yavuz Kol
Attacker87'
6.59
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Defender
6.4
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Midfielder
6.87
8
Cafú
Cafú
Midfielder64'
6.66
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
6.71
77
Pape Habib Guèye
Pape Habib Guèye
Attacker87'
6.69
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Midfielder
7.04
18
Jim Allevinah
Jim Allevinah
Attacker79'
6.79
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
6.68
23
Cenk Tosun
Cenk Tosun
Attacker79'
6.66
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
7.19
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
2
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Andreas Gianniotis
Argument / 13th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Argument / 12th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Adem Arous
Argument / 11th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Cenk Tosun
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Ousmane Diabate → Metehan Mimaroğlu
8th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Ali Yavuz Kol → Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Pape Habib Guèye → Andri Fannar Baldursson
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Jim Allevinah → Kerem Demirbay
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Cenk Tosun → Fousseni Diabaté
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Cafú
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Rodrigo Becão
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Fıratcan Üzüm → Abdurrahim Dursun
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Franco Tongya
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
70'
69'
Event
Emre Belözoğlu
Argument / 1st Redcard
68'
Event
Kerem Demirbay
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Dimitrios Goutas
Penalty awarded
67'
64'
Event
Cafú → Mortadha Ben Ouanes
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
45+8'
Event
Dimitrios Goutas
Header / 3rd Goal
45+4'
45+1'
Event
İrfan Can Kahveci
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Adama Traoré
Header / 2nd Goal
42'
40'
Event
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
25'
Event
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Erhan Erentürk
Argument / 14th Yellowcard
18'
Event
Cihan Çanak → Sékou Koïta
1st Substitution
14'
12'
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Franco Tongya
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
10'
Event
Zan Zuzek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'
1'
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ogulcan Ulgun takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adem Arous receives a yellow card.
89
Substitution Substitution
Fousseni Diabate is substituted for Metehan Mimaroglu.
87
Update Update
Pape Habib Gueye comes on for Andri Fannar Baldursson.
87
Update Update
Ali Yavuz Kol comes on for Kamil Ahmet Corekci.
83
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
82
Attempt Attempt
Adem Arous takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Cenk Tosun comes on for Kerem Demirbay.
79
Update Update
Cenk Tosun replaces Fousseni Diabate.
76
Attempt Attempt
Franco Tongya takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Firatcan Uzum replaces Abdurrahim Dursun.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Franco Tongya scores, making it 3-2.
70
Attempt Attempt
Franco Tongya scores with a right-footed shot.
67
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Dimitrios Goutas.
64
Update Update
Carlos Miguel Ribeiro Dias replaces Cafu, with Mortadha Ben Ouanes coming off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Mortadha Ben Ouanes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Goutas takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mortadha Ben Ouanes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Zan Zuzek takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
50
Update Update
Kerem Demirbay's header hits the post.
48
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Goutas attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Franco Tongya takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cihan Canak's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Update Update
Dimitrios Goutas scores with a header.
42
Attempt Attempt
Adama Traore takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
41
Attempt Attempt
Adama Traore takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ogulcan Ulgun takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kamil Ahmet Corekci receives a yellow card.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kamil Ahmet Corekci receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Ayotomiwa Dele Bashiru takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Adama Traore's left-footed shot is saved.
14
Update Update
Cihan Canak is on, and Sekou Koita is off.
12
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Adrian Benedyczak scores, making it 2-0.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Franco Tongya receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Becao attempts a header but misses the shot.
1
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak scores with a right-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Gençlerbirliği's 3-2 triumph highlighted their opportunism after Kasmpaşa's red card shifted momentum decisively. Level at 2-2 halftime, the hosts leveraged 61% possession and numerical superiority to strike the winner, defying Kasmpaşa's stronger pre-match billing. Minimal deviation and market alignment confirmed the result's predictability, though red card distortion warped proceedings. This gritty performance bolsters Gençlerbirliği's momentum, exposing Kasmpaşa's vulnerability to disciplinary lapses. Key takeaways include efficient second-half management and resilience under pressure, setting a positive tone for upcoming challenges.

Gençlerbirliği vs Kasımpaşa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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