Gaziantep F.K. vs Kayserispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Gaziantep Stadyumu Mon, 20 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
3 Winner 0
Kayserispor KAY
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Deian Sorescu - 80' (P)
Youssef Aït Bennasser - 45+1' (Own Goal)
Mohamed Bayo - 25'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Gaziantep F.K. claimed a decisive 3-0 home victory against Kayserispor, asserting dominance from the outset. They raced to a 2-0 lead by halftime, showcasing sharp attacking intent while maintaining a solid defense. In the second half, they added a third goal to complete the shutout, controlling 55% of possession compared to Kayserispor's 45%. As the pre-identified stronger team, Gaziantep delivered a performance with a significant 58.4% structural deviation in their favor. The match proceeded without red cards or major disruptions, allowing a full 90 minutes of competitive play. Pre-match market probabilities positioned Gaziantep as slight favorites at 41.6% win chance, with the outcome aligning closely. This result reflects their superior execution and tactical discipline throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gaziantep F.K. achieved a significant 58.4% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations inapplicable without data.
  • Event impact: No event impacts from second half adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: No red card distortion as zero red cards issued.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Karaoğlan

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Erdemir

4th Official

A. Alp

2nd Assistant

?. Sultanoğlu

1st Assistant

Gaziantep F.K. B. Yılmaz
B. Yılmaz
VS
Kayserispor E. Moe
E. Moe
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor Rank: L
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: D
Samsunspor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Kasımpaşa Rank: L
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gaziantep F.K.
41.62%
Draw
27.38%
Away Kayserispor
31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gaziantep F.K.
-55.53%
Draw
+25.01%
Kayserispor
+30.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.76
13.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gaziantep F.K.
Kayserispor
Power Score
16.76
13.01
League Position
10
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gaziantep F.K. Kayserispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gaziantep F.K. ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.18
41.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.44
40.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gaziantep F.K. -0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Kayserispor +0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Kayserispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gaziantep F.K. ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gaziantep F.K. Kayserispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. Kayserispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Kayserispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gaziantep F.K.
vs
Kayserispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gaziantep F.K. Kayserispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gaziantep F.K. 0.48
Kayserispor 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. Kayserispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gaziantep F.K. 0.00
Kayserispor 0.07
Gaziantep F.K.
Kayserispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAY had peak pressure around 92'.
  • Gaziantep F.K. started the game with stronger pressure.
Gaziantep F.K. Pressure KAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAY reached the top pressure at 92' (88.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Home
13 matches
Kayserispor KAY Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
15
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:01:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
Z. Görgen
Türkiye
20 Z. Görgen
D. Sorescu
Substitution
Romania
18 D. Sorescu
A. Kızıldağ
Türkiye
4 A. Kızıldağ
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
K. Rodrigues
Portugal
77 K. Rodrigues
A. Maxim
Substitution
Romania
44 A. Maxim
V. Gidado
Substitution
8 V. Gidado
D. Camara
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 D. Camara
K. Kozłowski
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
M. Bayo
Substitution
Guinea
9 M. Bayo
C. Lungoyi
Switzerland
11 C. Lungoyi
Pitch
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
J. Brenet
Substitution
Netherlands
30 J. Brenet
S. Denswil
Suriname
4 S. Denswil
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
J. Katongo
England
2 J. Katongo
L. Bénes
Slovakia
8 L. Bénes
Y. Aït Bennasser
Substitution
Morocco
15 Y. Aït Bennasser
F. Soyalp
Substitution
Türkiye
33 F. Soyalp
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 M. Nunes Cardoso
F. Chalov
Russia
63 F. Chalov
S. Mather
Substitution
England
11 S. Mather

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 20, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gaziantep Stadyumu
Capacity :
33502
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Berkay Erdemir
Atilla Karaoğlan
Ali Can Alp
Özcan Sultanoğlu

Statistics

Possession
Gaziantep F.K.
53%
KAY
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 3
10 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 33
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Throwins 15
26 Dribble Attempts 9
16 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
9 Goal Kicks 11
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
8 Successful Headers 5
83 Ball Safe 72
13 Goal Attempts 13
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

77 Attacks 112
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

18 Key Passes 15
23 Successful Long Passes 22
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
445 Successful Passes 358
36 Long Passes 37
89 Successful Passes Percentage 88
499 Passes 408

Defensive

9 Interceptions 10
43 Duels Won 34
7 Saves 4
9 Tackles 15

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 24
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

20
Zafer Görgen
Zafer Görgen Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Arda Kızıldağ
Arda Kızıldağ Defender
6.65
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
6.82
18
Deian Sorescu
Deian Sorescu Defender
6.75
2
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez
Defender86'
6.89
77
Kévin Rodrigues
Kévin Rodrigues Defender
6.86
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara Midfielder
7.13
61
Ogün Özçiçek
Ogün Özçiçek
Midfielder68'
6.7
8
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado Midfielder
6.49
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama
Midfielder86'
6.62
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim Midfielder
7.38
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré
Defender90'
6.77
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
7.03
70
Denis Drăguș
Denis Drăguș
Attacker68'
6.57
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Attacker
6.97
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi Attacker
6.73
Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
6.9
2
J. Katongo
J. Katongo Defender
6.33
4
Stefano Denswil
Stefano Denswil Defender
6.71
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
6.7
30
Joshua Brenet
Joshua Brenet Defender
6.34
28
Ramazan Civelek
Ramazan Civelek
Midfielder34'
6.54
8
László Bénes
László Bénes Midfielder
6.98
15
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder
6.81
24
Dorukhan Toköz
Dorukhan Toköz
Midfielder74'
6.49
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp Midfielder
6.77
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov
Midfielder46'
6.59
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso Attacker
6.94
11
Sam Mather
Sam Mather Attacker
6.56
9
German Onugkha
German Onugkha
Attacker46'
6.83
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov Attacker
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Dorukhan Toköz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
N. Sangaré → Alexandru Maxim
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Karamba Gassama → Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Luis Pérez → Deian Sorescu
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Deian Sorescu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
80'
78'
Event
Burak Kapacak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Dorukhan Toköz → Youssef Aït Bennasser
7th Substitution
Event
Ogün Özçiçek → Drissa Camara
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Denis Drăguș → Mohamed Bayo
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Kacper Kozlowski
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
46'
Event
German Onugkha → Sam Mather
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Burak Kapacak → Ramazan Civelek
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Denis Makarov → Furkan Soyalp
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
45+1'
42'
Event
László Bénes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Ramazan Civelek → Joshua Brenet
1st Substitution
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'
Event
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Event
6th Yellowcard
17'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gaziantep F.K. exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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