Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Rams Global Stadium Sun, 12 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Galatasaray GAL
1 – 1
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Leroy Sané - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Bruno Petkovic - 72'

CONTEXT

The match between Galatasaray and Kocaelispor is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. Galatasaray led 1-0 at halftime but were unable to hold on, as Kocaelispor found an equalizer in the second period. The result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, in which Galatasaray were rated as strong favorites with a 75.8 percent implied win probability against just 7.8 percent for the visitors. The home side, identified as the stronger team, underperformed relative to that projection and could not secure the victory. Galatasaray controlled the game with 67 percent possession to Kocaelispor’s 33 percent, yet the final scoreline failed to reflect that dominance. No red cards were issued and no major disciplinary events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, but the draw did not align with the pre-match projection. With no xG data available, it is not possible to determine whether the outcome matched expected goals, though the result clearly diverged from the anticipated home win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Galatasaray showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Çakır

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Sesigüzel

1st Assistant

M. Kısal

2nd Assistant

D. Tonusluoğlu

4th Official

Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
VS
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: W
Trabzonspor Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: D
Alanyaspor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Rizespor Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Galatasaray
75.82%
Draw
16.35%
Away Kocaelispor
7.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Galatasaray
+70.29%
Draw
-75.83%
Kocaelispor
+5.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
44.44
19.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
Power Score
44.44
19.85
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Galatasaray Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Galatasaray ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.99
28.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.03
22.99
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Galatasaray -0.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Kocaelispor +0.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Galatasaray ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Galatasaray Kocaelispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Galatasaray Kocaelispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Galatasaray
vs
Kocaelispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Galatasaray Kocaelispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Galatasaray 0.27
Kocaelispor 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Galatasaray Kocaelispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Galatasaray 0.04
Kocaelispor 0.02
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAL had peak pressure around 98'.
  • GAL started the game with stronger pressure.
GAL Pressure Kocaelispor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAL reached the top pressure at 98' (73.72).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Galatasaray GAL Home
3 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
U. Çakır
Turkey
1 U. Çakır
S. Boey
Substitution
France
93 S. Boey
D. Sánchez Mina
Colombia
6 D. Sánchez Mina
A. Bardakcı
Turkey
42 A. Bardakcı
I. Jakobs
Senegal
4 I. Jakobs
L. Torreira Di Pascua
Substitution
Uruguay
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
İ. Gündoğan
Substitution
Germany
20 İ. Gündoğan
L. Sané
Germany
10 L. Sané
G. Gomes Sara
Substitution
Brazil
8 G. Gomes Sara
R. Sallai
Substitution
Hungary
7 R. Sallai
B. Yılmaz
Turkey
53 B. Yılmaz
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Turkey
83 S. Öztaşdelen
R. Rivas Vindel
Substitution
Honduras
99 R. Rivas Vindel
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
A. Oğuz
Turkey
22 A. Oğuz
H. Keita
Mali
8 H. Keita
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
M. Susoho
Substitution
Spain
20 M. Susoho
J. Nonge Boende
Substitution
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
S. Dursun
Substitution
Germany
19 S. Dursun
D. Agyei
Substitution
England
7 D. Agyei

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Rams Global Stadium
Capacity :
53978
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oğuzhan Çakır
Ceyhun Sesigüzel
Mehmet Kısal
Direnç Tonusluoğlu

Statistics

Possession
GAL
63%
Kocaelispor
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
13 Shots 8
48 Dangerous attacks 25
67 Possession 33
4 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 6
22 Throwins 20
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
7 Successful Dribbles 4
78 Ball Safe 81
17 Successful Headers 11
9 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

112 Attacks 65
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

609 Passes 292
87 Successful Passes Percentage 75
27 Successful Long Passes 26
55 Long Passes 57
530 Successful Passes 219
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
10 Key Passes 5

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11
11 Tackles 8
2 Saves 5

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

1
Uğurcan Çakır
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs Defender
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Defender
42
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender
93
Sacha Boey
Sacha Boey Defender
90
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo
Defender67'
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai Midfielder
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang
Attacker66'
8
Gabriel Sara
Gabriel Sara Midfielder
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi
Attacker80'
10
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan Midfielder
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün
Attacker76'
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Midfielder
99
Mario Lemina
Mario Lemina
Midfielder75'
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Attacker
Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas Defender
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş
Attacker64'
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
14
Show
Show Midfielder
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl
Defender53'
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov
Attacker87'
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Attacker
9
Bruno Petkovic
Bruno Petkovic
Attacker64'
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Attacker
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara
Defender46'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Darko Churlinov → Dan Agyei
10th Substitution
Event
Mauro Icardi → Gabriel Sara
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Yunus Akgün → İlkay Gündoğan
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Mario Lemina → Lucas Torreira
7th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Bruno Petkovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Wilfried Singo → Sacha Boey
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Noa Lang → Roland Sallai
5th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Bruno Petkovic → Serdar Dursun
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Can Keleş → Rigoberto Rivas
3rd Substitution
53'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl → Mahamadou Susoho
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Massadio Haïdara → Joseph Nonge
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Leroy Sané
Header / 1st Goal
30'
23'
Event
Joseph Nonge
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Galatasaray exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.