Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Rams Global Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig Galatasaray GAL 
3 
0
0
Fenerbahçe FEN Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 31 · Regular Season
Lucas Torreira - 83'
Barış Alper Yılmaz - 67' (P)
Victor Osimhen - 40'
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Ederson 62' STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Galatasaray secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Fenerbahçe in a fiercely contested derby. The home side took the lead in the first half with a 1-0 scoreline at halftime and never looked back, adding two more goals after the break. Galatasaray dominated possession with 63% compared to Fenerbahçe's 37%, showcasing superior control and attacking intent. Despite Fenerbahçe entering as the stronger team on paper, a red card to the visitors in the second half shifted the dynamics decisively. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 53.9%, favoring Galatasaray. The win highlighted effective game management and clinical finishing from the home team, while Fenerbahçe struggled to create meaningful chances post-red card. No xG data was available to further analyze underlying performance metrics.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Galatasaray's 3-0 win showed a 53.9% significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
- xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
- xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
- Event impact: Fenerbahçe's red card created second-half distortion as the primary event adjustment.
- Red card distortion: The away red card distorted match structure, contributing to Galatasaray's dominance post-halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
O. Buruk
VS
D. Tedesco
2.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Göztepe Rank: W
Trabzonspor Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Samsunspor Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 15 - 18
18
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Galatasaray46.13%
Draw
27.67%
Fenerbahçe26.2%
Movement
Changes since opening Galatasaray-51.22%
Draw
+25.3%
Fenerbahçe+25.92%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.55 40.18 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Galatasaray FenerbahçePower Score
38.55
40.18
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Galatasaray Fenerbahçe
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
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vs
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Galatasaray
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Fenerbahçe
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Galatasaray ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
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Galatasarayvs
Fenerbahçe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Galatasaray 0.49
Fenerbahçe 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Galatasaray 0.00
Fenerbahçe 0.07
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- GAL had peak pressure around 90'.
- GAL started the game with stronger pressure.
GAL Pressure FEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAL reached the top pressure at 90' (79.46).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Galatasaray GAL Home
43 matches
Fenerbahçe FEN Away
Match Record 10
Wins
18
15
Draws
15
18
Losses
10
Goals 37
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
37
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T16:31:11+00:00
STARTING XI
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
1 U. Çakır
W. Singo
#9085'
7 R. Sallai
6 D. Sánchez Mina
42 A. Bardakcı
E. Elmalı
#1782'
4 I. Jakobs
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
M. Icardi Rivero
#982'
99 M. Lemina
10 L. Sané
N. Lang
#7768'
11 Y. Akgün
İ. Gündoğan
#2082'
53 B. Yılmaz
45 V. Osimhen
31 E. Santana de Moraes
M. Mercan
#2284'
3 A. Brown
24 J. Oosterwolde
37 M. Škriniar
M. Müldür
#1885'
27 N. Cabral Semedo
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
17 N. Kanté
İ. Yüksek
#566'
9 M. Aktürkoğlu
F. Günok
#3465'
94 A. Souza Conceição
A. Musaba
#2071'
45 N. Dorgeles
26 S. Cherif
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 05:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Rams Global Stadium
👥 Capacity :
53978
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Yasin Kol
Abdullah Bora Özkara
Bahtiyar Birinci
Çağdaş Altay
Next Match
Galatasaray
vs
Samsunspor
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Stadyum Samsun
Fenerbahçe
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Statistics
Possession
GAL
62%
FEN
38%
Top Statistics
3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 3
43 Dangerous attacks 25
63 Possession 37
6 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1
Match Overview
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
1 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
18 Dribble Attempts 16
13 Throwins 16
6 Goal Kicks 7
14 Successful Headers 9
8 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
85 Ball Safe 75
11 Goal Attempts 6
Attacking
2 Big Chances Missed 2
79 Attacks 61
Possession
87 Successful Passes Percentage 76
27 Successful Long Passes 10
454 Passes 266
48 Long Passes 31
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
395 Successful Passes 203
18 Key Passes 3
Defensive
53 Duels Won 41
19 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 5
Build-up
24 Total Crosses 11
9 Accurate Crosses 0
Discipline
4 Offsides 3
16 Fouls 13
Lineup
Galatasaray Referee : Yasin Kol
Manager ▼
O. Buruk Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
7.53
4 Ismail Jakobs Defender
6.7117Eren Elmalı
6.9Defender82'
6 Davinson Sánchez Defender
7.017 Roland Sallai Defender
7.190Wilfried Singo
6.82Defender85'
42 Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender
7.0510 Leroy Sané Midfielder
7.2711 Yunus Akgün Midfielder
7.21
77Noa Lang
6.99Attacker68'
34 Lucas Torreira Midfielder
53 Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder
20İlkay Gündoğan
7.08Midfielder82'
99 Mario Lemina Midfielder
6.99Mauro Icardi
7.05Attacker82'
45 Victor Osimhen Attacker
Substitutes ▼
77Noa Lang
6.99Attacker68'
17Eren Elmalı
6.9Defender82'
9Mauro Icardi
7.05Attacker82'
20İlkay Gündoğan
7.08Midfielder82'
90Wilfried Singo
6.82Defender85'
Bench ▼
19
Günay Güvenç Goalkeeper
6.923
Kaan Ayhan Defender
6.6293
Sacha Boey Defender
6.768
Gabriel Sara Midfielder
7.2974
Renato Nhaga Midfielder
6.92 Fenerbahçe Referee : Yasin Kol
Manager ▼
D. Tedesco Coach
Starting XI ▼
31 Ederson Goalkeeper
6.81
3 Archie Brown Defender
6.91
22Levent Mercan
6.89Defender84'
24 Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
6.83
27 Nélson Semedo Defender
6.918Mert Müldür
Defender85'
6.75
37 Milan Škriniar Defender
7.066 Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
7.3
9 Kerem Aktürkoğlu Midfielder
7.125İsmail Yüksek
6.91Midfielder66'
17 N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
7.1445 Dorgeles Nene Midfielder
7.1420Anthony Musaba
6.87Attacker71'
94 Talisca Midfielder
7.3234Mert Günok
6.6Goalkeeper65'
26 Sidiki Chérif Attacker
6.54Substitutes ▼
34Mert Günok
6.6Goalkeeper65'
5İsmail Yüksek
6.91Midfielder66'
20Anthony Musaba
6.87Attacker71'
22Levent Mercan
6.89Defender84'
18Mert Müldür
Defender85'
6.75
Bench ▼
4
Çağlar Söyüncü Defender
6.9614
Yiğit Efe Demir Defender
6.97
Fred Midfielder
6.9921
Marco Asensio Midfielder
7.5870
Oğuz Aydın Attacker
6.86Events
2ND-HALF
Victor Osimhen
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+6'
Mert Müldür
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
90+3'
Mattéo Guendouzi
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Lucas Torreira
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
85'
Wilfried Singo → Roland Sallai
10th Substitution
85'
85'
Mert Müldür → Nélson Semedo
9th Substitution
84'
Levent Mercan → Archie Brown
8th Substitution
Lucas Torreira
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Eren Elmalı → Ismail Jakobs
5th Substitution
82'
Mauro Icardi → Mario Lemina
7th Substitution
82'
İlkay Gündoğan → Barış Alper Yılmaz
6th Substitution
82'
71'
Anthony Musaba → Dorgeles Nene
4th Substitution
Barış Alper Yılmaz
6th Yellowcard
68'
Noa Lang → Yunus Akgün
3rd Substitution
68'
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
67'
66'
İsmail Yüksek → Kerem Aktürkoğlu
2nd Substitution
65'
Mert Günok → Talisca
1st Substitution
62'
Ederson
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
Lucas Torreira
Goal disallowed
57'
1ST-HALF
Yunus Akgün
5th Yellowcard
41'
Victor Osimhen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
40'
23'
Ederson
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
23'
Archie Brown
3rd Yellowcard
13'
Talisca
OffTarget
Uğurcan Çakır
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
6'
5'
Jayden Oosterwolde
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Galatasaray's 3-0 triumph over Fenerbahçe underscored their tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on a key turning point. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they exploited the opponent's numerical disadvantage after the red card, converting possession into goals efficiently. This result, despite Fenerbahçe's pre-designated strength, reflects a notable deviation in performance outcomes. With market alignment confirmed and efficiencies on track, the match illustrates how singular events like red cards can redefine contests. Galatasaray's control affirmed their readiness in high-stakes derbies, while Fenerbahçe must address disciplinary lapses.
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