GAIS vs Degerfors Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Gamla Ullevi Sat, 16 May - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
GAIS GAIS
1 – 1
Degerfors Degerfors
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
William Milovanovic - 12'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

GAIS hosted Degerfors in a league encounter that finished 1-1. The home side led 1-0 at halftime after taking an early advantage. Despite GAIS being regarded as the stronger team, Degerfors responded effectively in the second half to earn a point. Expected goals favored the visitors with 1.38 against the home side's 1.03, resulting in a differential of -0.35. Possession statistics showed Degerfors controlling 56 percent of the ball while GAIS held 44 percent. No red cards were shown to either team throughout the match. A significant deviation of 73.2 percent was recorded for GAIS, indicating a notable difference from pre-match projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: GAIS 1-1 Degerfors. GAIS showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with established performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the underlying expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Degerfors posted a higher xG total of 1.38 compared to GAIS at 1.03.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the flow beyond standard play adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, leaving match dynamics undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Olofsson

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Nyberg

1st Assistant

Sweden

R. Wilde

2nd Assistant

Sweden

F. Oppong

4th Official

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 3
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.18
GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
VS
Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK Rank: 48 W
Örgryte Rank: 43 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 56 D
Mjällby Rank: 69 D
Häcken Rank: 60 L
Malmö FF Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mjällby Rank: 70 L
Häcken Rank: 59 D
Örgryte Rank: 42 D
AIK Rank: 56 W
Elfsborg Rank: 57 L
Halmstad Rank: 45 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home GAIS
55.41%
Draw
26.75%
Away Degerfors
17.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
GAIS
+50.48%
Draw
-65.09%
Degerfors
+14.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.63
48.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
GAIS
Degerfors
Power Score
58.63
48.03
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
526
834

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) GAIS Degerfors

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Degerfors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

GAIS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Degerfors
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.86
19.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.82
38.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
GAIS +1.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Degerfors -1.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
GAIS
Degerfors
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

GAIS
vs
Degerfors
Created Set-piece attacking threat
GAIS Degerfors
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
GAIS Degerfors
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
GAIS
Degerfors
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
GAIS
vs
Degerfors
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
GAIS Degerfors
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
GAIS 0.36
Degerfors 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
GAIS Degerfors
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
GAIS 0.02
Degerfors 0.02
GAIS
Degerfors
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAIS had peak pressure around 45'.
  • GAIS started the game with stronger pressure.
GAIS Pressure Degerfors Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAIS reached the top pressure at 45' (81.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

GAIS GAIS Home
2 matches
Degerfors Degerfors Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
5
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Krasniqi
Sweden
1 M. Krasniqi
A. Wängberg
Sweden
6 (C) A. Wängberg
R. Frej
Sweden
12 R. Frej
F. Beckman
Sweden
24 F. Beckman
M. de Brienne
Substitution
Canada
2 M. de Brienne
W. Milovanovic
Sweden
8 W. Milovanovic
O. Ågren
Sweden
4 O. Ågren
R. Þorkelsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 R. Þorkelsson
M. Andersson
Substitution
Sweden
16 M. Andersson
S. Salter
Substitution
Canada
20 S. Salter
O. Pettersson
Substitution
Sweden
32 O. Pettersson
Pitch
M. Igonen
Estonia
38 M. Igonen
S. Diatara
Substitution
18 S. Diatara
J. Pikkarainen
Finland
5 J. Pikkarainen
S. Ohlsson
Sweden
16 S. Ohlsson
D. Sundgren
Sweden
6 (C) D. Sundgren
M. Rafferty
Sweden
10 M. Rafferty
K. Karlsson
Sweden
4 K. Karlsson
N. Girmai
Sweden
22 N. Girmai
G. Yaw Yiriyon
Substitution
Ghana
13 G. Yaw Yiriyon
O. Leonardsson
Substitution
Sweden
24 O. Leonardsson
L. Fritzson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Fritzson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gamla Ullevi
Capacity :
18416
Attendance :
8829
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tess Olofsson
Niklas Nyberg
Robin Wilde
Fredrick Oppong

Statistics

Possession
GAIS
46%
Degerfors
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 9
42 Dangerous attacks 42
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
19 Throwins 8
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
11 Dribble Attempts 12
3 Successful Dribbles 4
6 Goal Kicks 12
1 Assists 1
11 Goal Attempts 6
86 Ball Safe 86

Attacking

91 Attacks 124

Possession

78 Long Passes 62
330 Successful Passes 449
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
79 Successful Passes Percentage 84
416 Passes 534
32 Successful Long Passes 32
8 Key Passes 5

Defensive

50 Duels Won 60
1 Saves 0
22 Tackles 24
13 Interceptions 11

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 20
7 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

15 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Tess Olofsson

Starting XI ▼

1
Mergim Krasniqi
Mergim Krasniqi Goalkeeper
6.59
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne Defender
7.98
22
Anes Cardaklija
Anes Cardaklija
Defender90+1'
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg (C) Defender
6.7
12
Robin Frej
Robin Frej Defender
7.16
24
Filip Beckman
Filip Beckman Defender
7.1
4
Oskar Ågren
Oskar Ågren Midfielder
6.58
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
7.31
17
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson Midfielder
6.77
26
Blessing Asumang
Blessing Asumang
Attacker90+1'
6.61
16
M. Andersson
M. Andersson Attacker
6.35
11
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Attacker65'
6.15
20
S. Salter
S. Salter Attacker
6.68
28
Lucas Hedlund
Lucas Hedlund
Attacker64'
6.23
32
Oscar Pettersson
Oscar Pettersson Attacker
6.77
27
Mohamed Bawa
Mohamed Bawa
Midfielder55'
6.98
Referee : Tess Olofsson

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
6.24
5
Juhani Pikkarainen
Juhani Pikkarainen Defender
6.97
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren (C) Defender
7.74
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson Defender
6.66
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Defender
6.76
12
Erik Lindell
Erik Lindell
Defender46'
7.39
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
7.02
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
7.15
13
Gideon Yaw
Gideon Yaw Midfielder
6.98
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum
Midfielder74'
6.99
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
7.01
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Attacker
6.64
17
Arman Taranis
Arman Taranis
Attacker90+1'
6.61
24
Olle Leonardsson
Olle Leonardsson Attacker
6.71
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic
Attacker63'
6.36

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Anes Cardaklija → Matteo de Brienne
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Blessing Asumang → Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
8th Substitution
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Arman Taranis → Ludvig Fritzson
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Erik Lindell
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
74'
Event
Elias Barsoum → Gideon Yaw
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
William Milovanovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson → M. Andersson
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Lucas Hedlund → S. Salter
4th Substitution
64'
63'
Event
Dijan Vukojevic → Olle Leonardsson
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Erik Lindell
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mohamed Bawa → Oscar Pettersson
2nd Substitution
55'
46'
Event
Erik Lindell → Samba Diatara
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
William Milovanovic
Header / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Arman Taranis is on, and Ludvig Fritzson is off.
90
Update Update
Blessing Dankwah comes on for Robert Frosti Thorkelsson.
90
Update Update
Arman Taranis is on, and Ludvig Fritzson is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Johansson's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Robin Sixten Frej attempts a header but misses the shot.
74
Update Update
Elias Barsoum is on, and Gideon Yiriyon Yaw is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
August Wangberg takes a left-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Bawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Rasmus Johansson is on, and Max Andersson is off.
64
Update Update
Lucas Hedlund is on, and Samuel Salter is off.
63
Update Update
Dijan Vukojevic comes on for Olle Leonardsson.
60
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Update Update
Mohamed Bawa is on, and Oscar Pettersson is off.
51
Attempt Attempt
Yiriyon Gideon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Erik Lindell's header is saved.
46
Substitution Substitution
Erik Lindell is substituted for Samba Diatara.
42
Attempt Attempt
Max Andersson takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
37
Attempt Attempt
Yiriyon Gideon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Max Andersson takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
35
Attempt Attempt
Samba Diatara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Samba Diatara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
August Wangberg takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Filip Beckman takes a shot with his head but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Matteo de Brienne takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Max Andersson's left-footed shot is blocked.
12
Update Update
William Milovanovic scores with a header.
10
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Pettersson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between GAIS and Degerfors reflected a balanced contest where early home dominance gave way to an away equalizer. Degerfors created more expected goal opportunities despite trailing at the interval. GAIS maintained defensive structure but could not extend their lead after the break. Possession favored the visitors yet neither side converted chances efficiently enough for a win. The absence of disciplinary incidents allowed both teams to focus on tactical execution. This outcome highlights how second-half adjustments can neutralize initial advantages in closely matched fixtures. Overall the result serves as a reminder that expected goals and actual scores do not always converge immediately.

GAIS vs Degerfors preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.