Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Craven Cottage Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Fulham FUL
1 Winner 0
Aston Villa AVL
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 34 Regular Season
Ryan Sessegnon - 43'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa. The result saw Fulham take the points. Fulham showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 39%–61%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fulham's 1-0 win exhibited a minimal 5.8% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Oliver

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Burt

1st Assistant

J. Mainwaring

2nd Assistant

A. Backhouse

4th Official

Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: D
Liverpool Rank: L
Burnley Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
West Ham United Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
West Ham United Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: L
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 11 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fulham
94.16%
Draw
5.65%
Away Aston Villa
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fulham
+0.79%
Draw
-0.76%
Aston Villa
-0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.88
39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fulham
Aston Villa
Power Score
20.88
39
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fulham Aston Villa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.69
20.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.25
37.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fulham +1.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Aston Villa -1.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
Aston Villa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fulham Aston Villa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fulham Aston Villa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
Aston Villa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fulham
vs
Aston Villa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fulham Aston Villa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fulham 0.38
Aston Villa 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fulham Aston Villa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fulham 0.00
Aston Villa 0.03
Fulham
Aston Villa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FUL had peak pressure around 44'.
  • FUL started the game with stronger pressure.
FUL Pressure AVL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FUL reached the top pressure at 44' (77.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fulham FUL Home
41 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
11
Wins
19
11
Draws
11
19
Losses
11
Goals
42
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
42
-15
Goal Difference
+15

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:00:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Leno
Germany
1 B. Leno
T. Castagne
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
J. Andersen
Denmark
5 J. Andersen
C. Bassey
Nigeria
3 C. Bassey
K. Sessegnon
Substitution
England
30 K. Sessegnon
S. Lukić
Serbia
20 S. Lukić
S. Berge
Norway
16 S. Berge
H. Wilson
Wales
8 H. Wilson
E. Smith Rowe
Substitution
England
32 E. Smith Rowe
S. Chukwueze
Substitution
Nigeria
19 S. Chukwueze
R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Substitution
Mexico
7 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
Y. Tielemans
Substitution
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
L. Bogarde
Substitution
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
E. Buendía
Substitution
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
O. Watkins
Substitution
England
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Craven Cottage
Capacity :
25700
Attendance :
27606
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Oliver
Stuart Burt
James Mainwaring
Anthony Backhouse

Statistics

Possession
FUL
43%
AVL
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 8
34 Dangerous attacks 47
39 Possession 61
2 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 22
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Goal Kicks 7
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
14 Dribble Attempts 9
5 Successful Dribbles 5
21 Successful Headers 10
13 Throwins 23
8 Goal Attempts 9
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
52 Ball Safe 77

Attacking

88 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 86
9 Key Passes 9
337 Passes 526
277 Successful Passes 454
35 Long Passes 44
16 Successful Long Passes 24
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

54 Duels Won 41
1 Saves 5
15 Interceptions 6
18 Tackles 13

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
15 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
7 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
Bernd Leno
Bernd Leno Goalkeeper
6.76
3
Calvin Bassey
Calvin Bassey Defender
6.72
5
Joachim Andersen
Joachim Andersen Defender
6.88
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
6.8
30
Ryan Sessegnon
Ryan Sessegnon Defender
6.6
33
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson
Defender81'
6.81
8
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson Midfielder
7.16
16
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
6.82
19
Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze Midfielder
6.9
14
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb
Midfielder76'
6.58
20
Saša Lukić
Saša Lukić Midfielder
6.88
32
Emile Smith Rowe
Emile Smith Rowe Midfielder
6.74
24
Josh King
Josh King
Midfielder76'
6.61
7
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez Attacker
6.93
9
Rodrigo Muniz
Rodrigo Muniz
Attacker66'
6.68
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.93
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.92
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.84
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.73
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.76
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
6.86
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley
Midfielder74'
6.8
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.17
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho
Attacker74'
6.63
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
6.78
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker74'
6.47
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Midfielder
6.46
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
Midfielder74'
7.05
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.93
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.87
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham
Attacker81'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Douglas Luiz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Harry Wilson
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Antonee Robinson → Ryan Sessegnon
9th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Tammy Abraham → Ollie Watkins
8th Substitution
Event
Oscar Bobb  → Samuel Chukwueze
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Josh King → Emile Smith Rowe
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Leon Bailey → Emiliano Buendía
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Jadon Sancho → Youri Tielemans
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Douglas Luiz → Lamare Bogarde
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Ross Barkley → John McGinn
3rd Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Muniz → Raúl Jiménez
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Timothy Castagne
Foul / Goal Disallowed
66'
49'
Event
Pau Torres
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Timothy Castagne
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ryan Sessegnon
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
43'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Douglas Luiz wins a free kick for Aston Villa in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Douglas Luiz wins a free kick for Aston Villa in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Harry Wilson from Fulham wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Fulham winning 1-0 against Aston Villa.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Douglas Luiz of Aston Villa receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul by Sasa Lukic for Fulham.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Douglas Luiz of Aston Villa.
90
Update Update
Fulham is called offside as Harry Wilson is caught in an offside position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Harry Wilson from Fulham receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Fulham is called offside as Sander Berge is caught in an offside position.
88
Update Update
Sander Berge of Fulham is caught offside.
86
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Digne from Aston Villa misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
86
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Bobb's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Emiliano Martínez in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Joachim Andersen.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tammy Abraham from Aston Villa misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Antonee Robinson comes on for Ryan Sessegnon due to an injury.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Tammy Abraham comes on for Ollie Watkins.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ryan Sessegnon of Fulham.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Josh King comes on for Emile Smith Rowe.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Oscar Bobb comes on for Samuel Chukwueze.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Ross Barkley comes on for John McGinn.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Leon Bailey comes on for Emiliano Buendía.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Douglas Luiz comes on for Lamare Bogarde.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Douglas Luiz comes on for Lamare Bogarde.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Jadon Sancho comes on for Youri Tielemans.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa.
71
Update Update
Calvin Bassey wins a free kick for Fulham in the defensive half.
70
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Youri Tielemans of Aston Villa heads the ball from the center of the box but misses to the left. The cross was assisted by John McGinn following a corner.
69
Corner Corner
Aston Villa win a corner after Calvin Bassey concedes.
67
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz of Fulham is caught offside.
66
Update Update
Emiliano Martínez from Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Rodrigo Muniz comes on for Raúl Jiménez.
65
Attempt Attempt
Emile Smith Rowe's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
65
Corner Corner
Fulham win a corner after Pau Torres concedes.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Sander Berge of Fulham.
60
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
56
Update Update
Fulham is called offside as Harry Wilson is caught in an offside position.
54
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for Aston Villa in the attacking half.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Raúl Jiménez of Fulham.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Torres of Aston Villa.
52
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez from Fulham wins a free kick in the defensive half.
51
Update Update
Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
51
Update Update
Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
50
Update Update
Sander Berge from Fulham misses a header from the center of the box, just to the left. The attempt was assisted by Samuel Chukwueze with a headed pass after a set piece situation.
49
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez of Fulham wins a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Foul by Pau Torres of Aston Villa.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pau Torres of Aston Villa receives a yellow card for a foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson from Fulham misses a left-footed shot from outside the box to the right.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Sasa Lukic of Fulham.
48
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía wins a free kick for Aston Villa in the attacking half.
46
Update Update
Foul by Timothy Castagne of Fulham.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Timothy Castagne from Fulham receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Fulham leading 1-0 against Aston Villa.
45
Update Update
Bernd Leno of Fulham wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Fulham 1, Aston Villa 0.
44
Corner Corner
Aston Villa wins a corner after Harry Wilson concedes.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fulham takes the lead 1-0 with Ryan Sessegnon scoring from the center of the box with a left-footed shot into the bottom right corner.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic's header from the center of the box is saved by Emiliano Martínez in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Timothy Castagne's cross.
41
Update Update
Harry Wilson from Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Emiliano Buendía of Aston Villa.
40
Update Update
Emile Smith Rowe wins a free kick for Fulham on the left wing.
38
Update Update
Fulham are flagged for offside as Ryan Sessegnon is caught in an offside position.
37
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
36
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez from Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Emiliano Buendía of Aston Villa.
35
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
34
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Sessegnon of Fulham.
33
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32
Attempt Attempt
Sander Berge's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Raúl Jiménez provided the assist.
30
Update Update
John McGinn wins a free kick for Aston Villa in the defensive half.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Calvin Bassey of Fulham.
29
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. John McGinn assisted him on a fast break.
27
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Matty Cash concedes.
25
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Samuel Chukwueze from Fulham has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
23
Corner Corner
Aston Villa win a corner after Ryan Sessegnon concedes.
22
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez of Fulham commits a handball.
20
Update Update
Fulham is called offside as Samuel Chukwueze is caught in an offside position.
20
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez of Fulham is caught offside.
17
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Joachim Andersen of Fulham.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Sasa Lukic of Fulham.
16
Update Update
Foul by Sasa Lukic of Fulham.
13
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía of Aston Villa wins a free kick in the defensive half.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Timothy Castagne of Fulham.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa.
12
Update Update
Joachim Andersen wins a free kick for Fulham in the defensive half.
11
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Emiliano Martínez. The attempt was assisted by Raúl Jiménez.
11
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins' right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Bernd Leno. The attempt was assisted by John McGinn.
10
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde of Aston Villa commits dangerous play.
10
Update Update
Samuel Chukwueze of Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Lamare Bogarde of Aston Villa.
9
Update Update
Emile Smith Rowe of Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.
8
Attempt Attempt
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Ollie Watkins provided the assist.
7
Corner Corner
Raúl Jiménez's header from the center of the box is saved in the top left corner by Emiliano Martínez. The attempt was assisted by Samuel Chukwueze's cross.
7
Update Update
Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham wins a free kick in the defensive half.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Youri Tielemans of Aston Villa.
6
Corner Corner
Aston Villa wins a corner after Harry Wilson concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Aston Villa wins a corner after Timothy Castagne concedes.
4
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Aston Villa wins a free kick on the left wing.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Wilson of Fulham.
2
Update Update
Sander Berge from Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.
2
Update Update
Sander Berge from Fulham wins a free kick in the attacking half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fulham exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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