Fulham vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Craven Cottage Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Fulham FUL
0 Winner 1
AFC Bournemouth BOU
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
|
Goal
Rayan - 53'
Joachim Andersen 45+7' Red Card
|
Red Card Ryan Christie 41'

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Premier League clash at Craven Cottage, Fulham hosted AFC Bournemouth, ending in a narrow 0-1 defeat for the home side. The first half finished goalless at 0-0, with Fulham dominating possession at 60% but unable to break through Bournemouth's resolute defense. The game turned chaotic in the second half as both teams received red cards, leading to a fragmented affair marked by red card distortion. Despite the numerical disadvantage, AFC Bournemouth, deemed the stronger team pre-match, capitalized on a rare opportunity to secure the victory. Fulham's higher possession failed to translate into goals, highlighting defensive solidity from the visitors. This result sees Bournemouth climb the table, while Fulham rues missed chances in a match defined by discipline issues and tactical adjustments post-red cards. The minimal structural deviation underscored a predictable outcome aligned with pre-match assessments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 5.3% deviation favored AFC Bournemouth's win.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency expectations.
  • xG alignment: No xG data available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG data unavailable to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: Red cards to both teams heavily influenced second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Mutual red cards caused significant second-half structural distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Madley

Japan 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Hopton

1st Assistant

England

C. Taylor

2nd Assistant

England

P. Tierney

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.78
Yellow cards / match 3.66
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.18
Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
VS
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
1.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Liverpool Rank: 92 L
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Newcastle United Rank: 88 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Burnley Rank: 77 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fulham
0.19%
Draw
5.09%
Away AFC Bournemouth
94.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.57
73.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fulham
AFC Bournemouth
Power Score
70.57
73.76
League Position
11
6
Global Rank
32
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fulham AFC Bournemouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AFC Bournemouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.17
28.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.63
28.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fulham -0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
AFC Bournemouth +0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
AFC Bournemouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AFC Bournemouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fulham AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fulham AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
AFC Bournemouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fulham
vs
AFC Bournemouth
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fulham AFC Bournemouth
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fulham 0.24
AFC Bournemouth 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fulham AFC Bournemouth
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fulham 0.03
AFC Bournemouth 0.00
Fulham
AFC Bournemouth
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOU had peak pressure around 12'.
  • BOU started the game with stronger pressure.
FUL Pressure BOU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOU reached the top pressure at 12' (65.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fulham FUL Home
13 matches
AFC Bournemouth BOU Away
Match Record
2
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
13
-13
Goal Difference
+13

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Leno
Germany
1 B. Leno
T. Castagne
Substitution
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
J. Andersen
Denmark
5 J. Andersen
C. Bassey
Nigeria
3 C. Bassey
A. Robinson
United States
33 A. Robinson
S. Lukić
Serbia
20 S. Lukić
T. Cairney
Substitution
Scotland
10 T. Cairney
H. Wilson
Substitution
Wales
8 H. Wilson
E. Smith Rowe
Substitution
England
32 E. Smith Rowe
S. Chukwueze
Substitution
Nigeria
19 S. Chukwueze
Rodrigo Muniz
Brazil
9 Rodrigo Muniz
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
A. Smith
England
15 A. Smith
R. Christie
Scotland
10 R. Christie
A. Scott
Substitution
England
8 A. Scott
M. Tavernier
Substitution
England
16 M. Tavernier
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
R. Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
37 R. Rocha
F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Craven Cottage
Capacity :
25700
Attendance :
27626
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrew Madley
Nicholas Hopton
Craig Taylor
Paul Tierney

Statistics

Possession
FUL
57%
BOU
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
58 Dangerous attacks 29
60 Possession 40
11 Corners 2
24 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Injuries 2
11 Dribble Attempts 8
5 Goal Kicks 9
10 Successful Headers 12
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Throwins 7
7 Successful Dribbles 4
2 Hit Woodwork 1
59 Ball Safe 65
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
6 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

84 Attacks 60
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 27
36 Long Passes 57
439 Successful Passes 288
500 Passes 339
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
88 Successful Passes Percentage 85
10 Key Passes 10

Defensive

16 Tackles 11
54 Duels Won 39
5 Interceptions 4
3 Saves 2

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

1
Bernd Leno
Bernd Leno Goalkeeper
3
Calvin Bassey
Calvin Bassey Defender
5
Joachim Andersen
Joachim Andersen Defender
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
18
Jonah Kusi-Asare
Jonah Kusi-Asare
Attacker83'
33
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
8
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson Midfielder
14
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb
Midfielder62'
10
Tom Cairney
Tom Cairney Midfielder
24
Josh King
Josh King
Midfielder76'
19
Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze Midfielder
22
Kevin
Kevin
Attacker62'
20
Saša Lukić
Saša Lukić Midfielder
32
Emile Smith Rowe
Emile Smith Rowe Midfielder
31
Issa Diop
Issa Diop
Defender46'
9
Rodrigo Muniz
Rodrigo Muniz Attacker
Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith Defender
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
27
Alex Tóth
Alex Tóth
Midfielder90+1'
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie Midfielder
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
21
Amine Adli
Amine Adli
Attacker78'
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal
Attacker79'
37
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
7
David Brooks
David Brooks
Midfielder79'
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams
Midfielder43'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Marcus Tavernier
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Alex Tóth → Alex Scott
10th Substitution
Event
Jonah Kusi-Asare → Timothy Castagne
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Josh King
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
82'
79'
Event
Enes Ünal → Eli Kroupi
8th Substitution
79'
Event
David Brooks → Rayan
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Amine Adli → Marcus Tavernier
6th Substitution
Event
Antonee Robinson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Josh King → Tom Cairney
5th Substitution
76'
65'
Event
Alex Scott
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kevin → Samuel Chukwueze
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Oscar Bobb  → Harry Wilson
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Saša Lukić
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
53'
Event
Rayan
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Rodrigo Muniz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
Issa Diop → Emile Smith Rowe
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Joachim Andersen
Foul / 2nd Redcard
45+7'
Event
Joachim Andersen
Card adjusted
45+6'
43'
Event
Tyler Adams → Evanilson
1st Substitution
41'
Event
Ryan Christie
Foul / 1st Redcard
40'
Event
Ryan Christie
Card adjusted

Match Commentary

55
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Antonee Robinson from Fulham.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth takes the lead 1-0 with Rayan scoring from outside the box into the right corner, assisted by Adam Smith.
51
Update Update
Tom Cairney from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
51
Attempt Attempt
Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth hits the bar with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Marcus Tavernier.
51
Update Update
Junior Kroupi commits a foul for Bournemouth.
50
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Marcos Senesi of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodrigo Muniz of Fulham receives a yellow card for a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Antonee Robinson's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Calvin Bassey.
48
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but Bernd Leno of Fulham saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by James Hill.
47
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Adrien Truffert concedes.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Kroupi for Bournemouth.
46
Update Update
Calvin Bassey from Fulham won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Fulham 0, Bournemouth 0.
45
Update Update
Samuel Chukwueze of Fulham won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Adam Smith concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams against Bournemouth.
45
Update Update
Offside called against Fulham. Harry Wilson is in an offside position.
45
Update Update
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
VAR decision: Joachim Andersen of Fulham has had his card upgraded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rayan from Bournemouth missed a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Marcus Tavernier's cross.
45
Red Card Red Card Important
Joachim Andersen from Fulham receives a red card.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Timothy Castagne - Fulham.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic from Fulham attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Djordje Petrovic from Bournemouth saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Tom Cairney.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Fulham and Bournemouth tied at 0-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Issa Diop replaces Emile Smith Rowe.
43
Update Update
Joachim Andersen of Fulham hits the bar with a header from the center of the box, assisted by Harry Wilson's cross.
43
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Tyler Adams replaces Evanilson.
41
Red Card Red Card Important
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth receives a red card.
40
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Ryan Christie of Bournemouth.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Christie for Bournemouth.
39
Update Update
Timothy Castagne of Fulham won a free kick on the right wing.
39
Corner Corner
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Tom Cairney, who headed the ball after a corner.
38
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Adam Smith concedes.
36
Update Update
Harry Wilson from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Scott for Bournemouth.
35
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Timothy Castagne concedes.
34
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Fouled by Antonee Robinson of Fulham.
32
Update Update
Emile Smith Rowe of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Foul by Alex Scott for Bournemouth.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Emile Smith Rowe against Fulham.
30
Update Update
Ryan Christie of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
29
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz of Fulham had a missed opportunity, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide. The assist came from Timothy Castagne's cross.
25
Update Update
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
25
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Adam Smith from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Evanilson of Bournemouth is flagged for offside.
19
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Antonee Robinson concedes.
18
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham won a free kick in the attacking area.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by James Hill of Bournemouth.
16
Update Update
Antonee Robinson from Fulham committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Alex Scott of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
12
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Harry Wilson.
11
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Bournemouth. Marcus Tavernier's left-footed shot from outside the box goes high, assisted by Ryan Christie.
10
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham commits a foul.
10
Update Update
Offside called against Bournemouth. Junior Kroupi is offside.
10
Update Update
Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
9
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Adrien Truffert's cross.
8
Corner Corner
Harry Wilson of Fulham missed a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
7
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Adam Smith concedes.
6
Update Update
Sasa Lukic from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Scott for Bournemouth.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Kroupi for Bournemouth.
5
Update Update
Calvin Bassey of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
4
Corner Corner
Fulham is awarded a corner after Marcos Senesi concedes.
3
Attempt Attempt
Emile Smith Rowe's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
3
Update Update
Antonee Robinson from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Harry Wilson from Fulham.

CONCLUSION

AFC Bournemouth emerged victorious 0-1 against Fulham, overcoming mutual red cards that distorted the second half after a 0-0 halftime stalemate. Fulham's 60% possession dominance yielded no goals, exposing finishing woes despite home advantage. Bournemouth's resilience and clinical edge, as the stronger side, secured a deserved win with minimal deviation from expectations. This result boosts Bournemouth's momentum, while Fulham must address defensive vulnerabilities and red card discipline. Key adjustments post-reds highlighted tactical nous from the visitors, turning chaos into triumph in a match that tested both squads' character.

Fulham vs AFC Bournemouth preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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