Frosinone vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Fri, 6 Mar - 2:07 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
2 – 2
Pescara PES
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
Antonio Raimondo - 90+4'
Giacomo Calò - 85' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Antonio Di Nardo - 33', 2'
|
Red Card Giorgio Altare 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Frosinone and Pescara has officially finished in a 2-2 draw. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating Frosinone, who entered the contest as the clear stronger team. Pre-market probabilities gave the hosts a dominant 62.5% chance of victory, compared to a 20.1% likelihood of a draw and just 17.4% for a Pescara win. Consequently, the final outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market. Pescara stunned the home supporters early on, carrying a surprising 2-0 lead into the halftime break. However, the match dynamics shifted dramatically in the second half due to a critical red card distortion. Pescara suffered a dismissal, reducing them to ten men. This numerical advantage allowed Frosinone to dictate the tempo, finishing the match with an overwhelming 64% possession compared to the visitors' 36%, ultimately helping the hosts claw back two goals to salvage a point. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, we cannot definitively evaluate if the final score was consistent with the quality of underlying chances created. Nevertheless, post-match analytics indicate that the overall efficiency shift remained in line with expectations despite the dramatic flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Di Marco

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Stefano Galimberti

1st Assistant

C. Rinaldi

2nd Assistant

C. Allegretta

4th Official

Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: D
Spezia Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Venezia Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: W
Venezia Rank: L
Avellino Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: L
Cesena Rank: L
Mantova Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
62.47%
Draw
20.11%
Away Pescara
17.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.48
32.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Pescara
Power Score
65.48
32.18
League Position
3
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.31
38.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.06
35.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone -0.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara +0.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
4 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:19:22+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:07 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity :
16227
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stefano Galimberti
Carlo Rinaldi
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession
FRO
60%
PES
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 6
72 Dangerous attacks 14
64 Possession 36
12 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 17
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
7 Goal Kicks 8
20 Dribble Attempts 12
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Successful Dribbles 6
14 Goal Attempts 10
1 Injuries 3
82 Ball Safe 84
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

100 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

49 Long Passes 76
79 Successful Passes Percentage 65
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
298 Successful Passes 149
377 Passes 229
24 Successful Long Passes 28
13 Key Passes 10

Defensive

3 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 4
15 Tackles 20

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 1
10 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

12 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Antonio Raimondo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Antonio Raimondo
6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
82'
Event
Giorgio Altare
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
78'
Event
Julian Brandes
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
10th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Julian Brandes → Lorenzo Meazzi
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Flavio Russo → Gennaro Acampora
8th Substitution
Event
Antonio Raimondo → Massimo Zilli
7th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon → Lorenzo Berardi
6th Substitution
Event
Francesco Gelli → Ilias Koutsoupias
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Ben Lhassine Kone → Riccardo Marchizza
5th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Davide Bettella
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Cichella
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
46'
Event
Giacomo Olzer → Luca Valzania
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+9'
Event
Gennaro Acampora
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gabriele Calvani
Goal disallowed
45+2'
Event
Jacopo Gelli → Giorgio Cittadini
2nd Substitution
36'
33'
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
4'
Event
Giorgio Altare → Davide Faraoni
1st Substitution
2'
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Frosinone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Frosinone vs Pescara preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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