Frosinone vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
5 Winner 0
Mantova MAN
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Ilias Koutsoupias - 76'
Antonio Raimondo - 71'
Farès Ghedjemis - 57'
Alessio Castellini - 12' (Own Goal)
Giacomo Calò - 5' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Frosinone dominated Mantova with a 5-0 victory, leading 2-0 at halftime despite possessing only 43% of the ball compared to Mantova's 57%. The home side's clinical finishing overwhelmed their opponents, who failed to score despite greater territorial control. As the stronger team, Frosinone's performance resulted in a significant structural deviation of 39.6%, surpassing typical outcome variances. The final score aligned with pre-match market expectations, where Frosinone held a 60.4% implied probability of winning. No red cards or major disruptions occurred, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections. Mantova's inability to convert possession into threats exposed defensive frailties, while Frosinone's second-half surge sealed the rout. This result reinforces Frosinone's superiority in finishing and organization.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone's 5-0 win showed a significant structural deviation of 39.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any scoreline distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Manganiello

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Costanzo

2nd Assistant

Italy

G. Perrotti

1st Assistant

Italy

V. Crezzini

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
2.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 W
Carrarese Rank: 54 W
Modena Rank: 57 W
Palermo Rank: 64 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 51 W
Südtirol Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 67 W
Südtirol Rank: 53 W
Avellino Rank: 50 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Modena Rank: 57 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
60.36%
Draw
21.56%
Away Mantova
18.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
Frosinone
-37.24%
Draw
+19.65%
Mantova
+17.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.62
54.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Mantova
Power Score
68.62
54.6
League Position
2
11
Global Rank
244
658

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.53
30.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.26
39.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Mantova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Frosinone
vs
Mantova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Frosinone Mantova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Frosinone 0.38
Mantova 0.64
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Frosinone Mantova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Frosinone 0.00
Mantova 0.13
Frosinone
Mantova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAN had peak pressure around 41'.
  • FRO started the game with stronger pressure.
FRO Pressure MAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAN reached the top pressure at 41' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
11 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
17
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Palmisani
Substitution
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
G. Cittadini
Substitution
Italy
2 G. Cittadini
I. Monterisi
Substitution
Italy
30 I. Monterisi
G. Bracaglia
Italy
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Calò
Italy
14 G. Calò
M. Cichella
Italy
16 M. Cichella
F. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Gelli
F. Ghedjemis
Substitution
France
7 F. Ghedjemis
A. Raimondo
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
G. Kvernadze
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Castellini
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Castellini
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
R. Kouda
Substitution
Italy
80 R. Kouda
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
T. Maggioni
Substitution
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
F. Ruocco
Substitution
Italy
19 F. Ruocco
T. Marras
Substitution
Italy
23 T. Marras
L. Mancuso
Italy
9 L. Mancuso

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity :
16227
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gianluca Manganiello
Alessandro Costanzo
Giuseppe Perrotti
Valerio Crezzini

Statistics

Possession
FRO
46%
MAN
54%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 16
40 Dangerous attacks 25
43 Possession 57
8 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Dribble Attempts 16
5 Successful Dribbles 7
10 Throwins 16
13 Goal Attempts 14
71 Ball Safe 84
10 Goal Kicks 8
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

76 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
284 Passes 399
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
208 Successful Passes 324
55 Long Passes 54
8 Key Passes 10
22 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

17 Tackles 9
42 Duels Won 42
7 Interceptions 3
5 Saves 4

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
15 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
75
Matteo Pisseri
Matteo Pisseri
Goalkeeper81'
2
Giorgio Cittadini
Giorgio Cittadini Defender
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani
Defender75'
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi Defender
19
Niccolò Corrado
Niccolò Corrado
Defender81'
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Defender
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli Midfielder
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias
Midfielder67'
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini
Attacker67'
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
33
Cristian Marai
Cristian Marai
Defender90'
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
10
David Wieser
David Wieser
Midfielder63'
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
36
Flavio Paoletti
Flavio Paoletti
Midfielder46'
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Attacker
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Attacker
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso
Attacker63'
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Attacker
18
César Falletti
César Falletti
Midfielder82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Cristian Marai → Alessio Castellini
10th Substitution
82'
Event
César Falletti → Tommaso Marras
9th Substitution
Event
Niccolò Corrado → Ilario Monterisi
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Matteo Pisseri → Lorenzo Palmisani
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Ilias Koutsoupias
5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Ilias Koutsoupias
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Gabriele Calvani → Giorgio Cittadini
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Antonio Raimondo
4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Antonio Raimondo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Seydou Fini → Farès Ghedjemis
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Ilias Koutsoupias → Francesco Gelli
5th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
Simone Trimboli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Nicolò Buso → Francesco Ruocco
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
David Wieser → Rachid Kouda
3rd Substitution
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
57'
46'
Event
Flavio Paoletti → Tommaso Maggioni
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Alessio Castellini
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
12'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
5'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Penalty awarded
4'
4'
Event
Alessio Castellini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Cristian Marai comes on for Alessio Castellini.
82
Update Update
Cesar Alejandro Falletti dos Santos comes on for Tommaso Marras.
81
Update Update
Niccolo Corrado is on, and Ilario Monterisi is off.
81
Update Update
Matteo Pisseri replaces Lorenzo Palmisani.
79
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ilias Koutsoupias scores, making it 5-0.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Koutsoupias takes a right-footed shot and scores.
75
Substitution Substitution
Gabriele Calvani is substituted for Giorgio Cittadini.
73
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Raimondo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
70
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Raimondo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Raimondo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Castellini takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Seydou Fini comes on for Fares Ghedjemis.
67
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Raimondo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Raimondo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Nicolo Buso is on, and Francesco Ruocco is off.
63
Update Update
David Wieser replaces Rachid Kouda.
62
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ilario Monterisi takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Fares Ghedjemis scores with a left-footed shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Flavio Paoletti comes on for Tommaso Maggioni.
45
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Ruocco misses with a left-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras has a shot with his left foot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Maggioni attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Simone Trimboli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Simone Trimboli takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Fares Ghedjemis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Fares Ghedjemis takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvernadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Castellini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Anthony Oyono Omva Torque with his right foot misses the target.
17
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Cella's right-footed shot is saved.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Alessio Castellini makes it 2-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Fares Ghedjemis takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
8
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvernadze takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Giacomo Calo scores, making it 1-0.
4
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Giacomo Calo.
2
Attempt Attempt
Ilario Monterisi attempts a header but misses the shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gianluca Manganiello.

CONCLUSION

Frosinone's 5-0 triumph over Mantova highlighted their superior conversion rate, turning limited possession into a comprehensive win. The halftime 2-0 lead set the tone, with three second-half goals exploiting Mantova's wastefulness. This significant 39.6% deviation underscores Frosinone's edge as the stronger side, consistent with market views. Without xG data or disruptions like red cards, the result reflects pure execution differences. Mantova's 57% possession yielded nothing, pointing to tactical shortcomings. Frosinone's defensive resilience and attacking efficiency position them strongly moving forward.

Frosinone vs Mantova preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie B, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ