Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Sat, 25 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
3 Winner 0
Carrarese CAR
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Ben Lhassine Kone - 90+6' (P)
Antonio Fiori - 71'
Giacomo Calò - 54' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Frosinone claimed a decisive 3-0 victory over Carrarese, with all goals scored in the second half after a 0-0 halftime deadlock. The home side dominated possession at 57% to 43%, gradually wearing down their opponents' defense. Despite Carrarese's resilient first-half performance, Frosinone's superior quality prevailed post-interval, netting three unanswered strikes. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play in a match that showcased the home team's control and finishing prowess. As the designated stronger team, Frosinone delivered a performance marked by significant structural deviation, aligning with pre-match expectations while maintaining efficiency in line with norms. The result underscores their ability to convert sustained pressure into a comprehensive win, free from any major disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant 38.8% structural deviation favoring their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Andrea Rapuano

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Copelli

4th Official

G. Monaco

2nd Assistant

M. Ceccon

1st Assistant

Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
2.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: W
Palermo Rank: D
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
61.21%
Draw
20.98%
Away Carrarese
17.82%

Movement

Changes since opening
Frosinone
-36.68%
Draw
+19.06%
Carrarese
+17.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.77
23.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Carrarese
Power Score
33.77
23.56
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Carrarese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.77
38.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.72
38.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone +0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Carrarese -0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Carrarese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Carrarese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Carrarese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Carrarese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Frosinone
vs
Carrarese
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Frosinone Carrarese
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Frosinone 0.48
Carrarese 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Frosinone Carrarese
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Frosinone 0.00
Carrarese 0.07
Frosinone
Carrarese
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FRO had peak pressure around 64'.
  • FRO started the game with stronger pressure.
FRO Pressure CAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FRO reached the top pressure at 64' (77.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
4 matches
Carrarese CAR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
7
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
I. Monterisi
Italy
30 I. Monterisi
G. Calvani
Italy
3 G. Calvani
G. Bracaglia
Italy
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Calò
Substitution
Italy
14 G. Calò
M. Cichella
Italy
16 M. Cichella
F. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Gelli
F. Ghedjemis
Substitution
France
7 F. Ghedjemis
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
G. Kvernadze
Substitution
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
F. Oliana
Italy
6 F. Oliana
J. Illanes Minucci
Argentina
4 J. Illanes Minucci
S. Zanon
Italy
72 S. Zanon
N. Belloni
Substitution
Italy
7 N. Belloni
L. Hasa
Italy
70 L. Hasa
N. Schiavi
Substitution
Argentina
18 N. Schiavi
G. Parlanti
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
D. Bouah
Substitution
Italy
13 D. Bouah
M. Finotto
Substitution
Italy
32 M. Finotto
T. Rubino
Substitution
Italy
21 T. Rubino

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity :
16227
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alessandro Copelli
Giacomo Monaco
Marco Ceccon
Andrea Rapuano

Statistics

Possession
FRO
54%
CAR
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
42 Dangerous attacks 33
57 Possession 43
8 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 7
26 Throwins 17
5 Goal Kicks 13
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
6 Successful Dribbles 3
52 Ball Safe 66
10 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
2 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

73 Attacks 64
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

15 Successful Long Passes 20
38 Long Passes 52
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
306 Successful Passes 207
365 Passes 271
84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
15 Key Passes 14

Defensive

40 Duels Won 42
3 Saves 1
8 Tackles 19
3 Interceptions 5

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 28
9 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
7.14
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani Defender
6.85
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
6.79
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi Defender
7.08
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Defender
6.89
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli Midfielder
6.9
92
Ben Lhassine Kone
Ben Lhassine Kone
Midfielder80'
6.64
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
7.6
6
Jacopo Gelli
Jacopo Gelli
Defender90+1'
6.85
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
6.72
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
7.21
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini
Attacker70'
7
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
6.88
28
Massimo Zilli
Massimo Zilli
Attacker80'
6.7
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
6.77
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori
Attacker70'
6.79
Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6.85
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Defender
6.89
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
6.78
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Defender
7.01
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
6.71
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi
Defender73'
6.78
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah Midfielder
6.69
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese
Defender59'
6.77
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi Midfielder
7.15
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli
Midfielder59'
6.99
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
7.05
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
6.59
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino Attacker
6.75
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso
Attacker59'
6.99
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto Attacker
6.66
28
Filippo Distefano
Filippo Distefano
Attacker77'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ben Lhassine Kone
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+6'
Event
Jacopo Gelli → Giacomo Calò
10th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ben Lhassine Kone → Francesco Gelli
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Massimo Zilli → Antonio Raimondo
9th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Filippo Distefano → Mattia Finotto
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Jonas Rouhi → Niccolò Belloni
6th Substitution
Event
Antonio Fiori
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
71'
Event
Seydou Fini → Farès Ghedjemis
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Giorgi Kvernadze
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Giorgi Kvernadze
Penalty awarded
68'
59'
Event
Emanuele Zuelli → Nicolás Schiavi
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Nicolò Calabrese → Devid Eugene Bouah
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Fabio Abiuso → Tommaso Rubino
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Nicolás Schiavi
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
6th Yellowcard
Event
Giacomo Calò
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Penalty awarded
52'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah
Card adjusted
42'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'

CONCLUSION

Frosinone's 3-0 win over Carrarese exemplified second-half dominance after a level 0-0 halftime, leveraging 57% possession into clinical goals. The stronger team's significant structural deviation highlighted their edge, with efficiency in line and market expectations met. Absent red cards or disruptive events, the scoreline purely reflected superiority in execution and tactics. This result reinforces Frosinone's credentials, providing a solid foundation for upcoming challenges through disciplined play and effective conversion.

Frosinone vs Carrarese preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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