Fredrikstad vs HamKam Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
Eliteserien
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
2 Winner 1
HamKam HamKam
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Round 9 Regular Season
Martin Gjone - 44' (Own Goal)
Simen Rafn - 36'
Goal
|
Goal
Anders Trondsen - 90+7'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fredrikstad 2–1 HamKam. The result saw Fredrikstad take the points. Fredrikstad showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Fredrikstad 1 – 1.7 HamKam. Possession was 41%–59%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Fredrikstad 2-1 HamKam. Fredrikstad showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Saggi

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Olav Dale

1st Assistant

Norway

J. Valstadsve

2nd Assistant

Norway

A. Al Fahad

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.63
Yellow cards / match 3.06
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.23
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
VS
HamKam T. Myhre
T. Myhre
0.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 59 L
Brann Rank: 68 L
Viking Rank: 77 L
Kristiansund Rank: 55 L
Vålerenga Rank: 59 D
Aalesund Rank: 43 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vålerenga Rank: 59 W
Kristiansund Rank: 56 D
Start Rank: 49 W
KFUM Rank: 56 W
Molde Rank: 66 L
Brann Rank: 69 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 6 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredrikstad
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away HamKam
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.31
59.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredrikstad
HamKam
Power Score
60.31
59.24
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
471
503

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
HamKam — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredrikstad HamKam

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

HamKam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredrikstad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HamKam
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.10
32.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.46
31.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredrikstad -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
HamKam +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredrikstad
HamKam
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredrikstad
vs
HamKam
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredrikstad HamKam
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredrikstad HamKam
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Fredrikstad
HamKam
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fredrikstad
vs
HamKam
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fredrikstad HamKam
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fredrikstad 0.18
HamKam 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fredrikstad HamKam
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fredrikstad 0.02
HamKam 0.04
Fredrikstad
HamKam
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HamKam had peak pressure around 66'.
  • Fredrikstad started the game with stronger pressure.
Fredrikstad Pressure HamKam Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HamKam reached the top pressure at 66' (73.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Home
10 matches
HamKam HamKam Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
6
Draws
6
1
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
12
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
F. Holmé
Norway
4 F. Holmé
U. Fredriksen
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
J. Vonheim Norbye
Norway
18 J. Vonheim Norbye
D. Eid
Norway
16 D. Eid
L. Owusu
Ghana
24 L. Owusu
R. Shein
Substitution
Estonia
21 R. Shein
S. Rafn
Norway
5 (C) S. Rafn
O. Øhlenschlæger
Substitution
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger
H. Skogvold
Substitution
Norway
23 H. Skogvold
S. Sørløkk
Substitution
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
Pitch
M. Sandberg
Sweden
12 M. Sandberg
I. Hoffmann
Substitution
United States
24 I. Hoffmann
E. Amundsen-Day
Norway
3 E. Amundsen-Day
F. Sjølstad
Norway
23 (C) F. Sjølstad
M. Gjone
Norway
2 M. Gjone
V. Jonsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 V. Jonsson
A. Baran Potur
Norway
17 A. Baran Potur
P. Metcalfe
Substitution
Canada
26 P. Metcalfe
L. Mettler
Substitution
Switzerland
10 L. Mettler
H. Udahl
Substitution
Norway
19 H. Udahl
M. Alassane Niang
29 M. Alassane Niang

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 9 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion
Capacity :
12565
Attendance :
10290
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rohit Saggi
Anders Olav Dale
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Abdulhadi Al Fahad

Statistics

Possession
Fredrikstad
45%
HamKam
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 17
55 Dangerous attacks 43
41 Possession 59
5 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Throwins 10
1 Assists 0
9 Dribble Attempts 8
8 Goal Kicks 9
9 Goal Attempts 8
61 Ball Safe 86
89 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
8 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

89 Attacks 87
6 Counter Attacks 3
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
326 Successful Passes 494
389 Passes 577
6 Key Passes 7
26 Successful Long Passes 20
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
57 Long Passes 54

Defensive

39 Duels Won 49
6 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 6
10 Tackles 11

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 25
5 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
7.84
4
Fredrik Holmé
Fredrik Holmé Defender
6.93
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
7.07
18
Jonathan Norbye
Jonathan Norbye Defender
6.77
5
Simen Rafn
Simen Rafn (C) Midfielder
7.52
16
Daniel Eid
Daniel Eid Midfielder
7.03
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
7.14
14
Max Nilsson
Max Nilsson
Midfielder90+4'
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu Midfielder
6.76
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Attacker
7.07
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm
Midfielder71'
6.18
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Attacker
6.97
15
Eirik Julius Granaas
Eirik Julius Granaas
Midfielder77'
6.28
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold Attacker
6.81
7
Benjamin Faraas
Benjamin Faraas
Midfielder71'
6.27
Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

12
M. Sandberg
M. Sandberg Goalkeeper
6.93
2
Martin Gjone
Martin Gjone Defender
6.51
3
Ethan Amundsen Day
Ethan Amundsen Day Defender
6.85
7
V. Jónsson
V. Jónsson Defender
6.23
22
S. Strand Nilsen
S. Strand Nilsen
Defender58'
6.9
23
F. Sjølstad
F. Sjølstad (C) Defender
6.24
24
I. Hoffmann
I. Hoffmann Defender
7.2
15
Ilir Kukleci
Ilir Kukleci
Defender85'
6.55
10
Loris Mettler
Loris Mettler Midfielder
6.79
16
Anders Trondsen
Anders Trondsen
Midfielder58'
7.25
17
A. Potur
A. Potur Midfielder
7.16
26
Patrick Metcalfe
Patrick Metcalfe Midfielder
6.67
6
William Osnes-Ringen
William Osnes-Ringen
Midfielder80'
6.5
19
Henrik Udahl
Henrik Udahl Attacker
6.49
8
M. Johnsgård
M. Johnsgård
Midfielder46'
6.3
29
M. Alassane Niang
M. Alassane Niang Attacker
6.97

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Anders Trondsen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Max Nilsson → Rocco Shein
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
85'
Event
Ilir Kukleci → I. Hoffmann
8th Substitution
80'
Event
William Osnes-Ringen → Patrick Metcalfe
7th Substitution
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas → Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Benjamin Faraas → Henrik Langaas Skogvold
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Samuel Leach Holm → Sondre Sørløkk
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Martin Børsheim
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Fredrik Holmé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
64'
58'
Event
S. Strand Nilsen → V. Jónsson
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Anders Trondsen → Loris Mettler
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
M. Johnsgård → Henrik Udahl
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Martin Gjone
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
44'
Event
Simen Rafn
Header / 1st Goal
36'

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Fredrikstad 2-1 HamKam. Structural assessment: Fredrikstad exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Fredrikstad vs HamKam preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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