Fredericia vs FC København Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Monjasa Park Sun, 3 May - 2:00 PM
Superliga
Fredericia Fredericia
3 – 3
FC København COP
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:00 PM
Round 8 Relegation Round
Etim - 83', 1'
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde - 24'
Goal
|
Goal
Jordan Larsson - 87' (P)
M. Madsen - 32'
Andreas Cornelius - 11'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Danish Superliga clash, underdogs Fredericia secured a remarkable 3-3 draw against title contenders FC København. The halftime score stood at 2-2, with both sides trading blows in an end-to-end first half. Despite FC København dominating possession at 57% to Fredericia's 43%, the home team matched them goal for goal, showcasing resilience and sharp finishing. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing continuous action. This outcome marks a significant structural deviation, as the stronger visitors underperformed relative to expectations. Fredericia's spirited display neutralized København's quality, turning the match into a thrilling stalemate that defied pre-game assumptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited 79.9% significant structural deviation for FC København.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as draw defied pre-match favoritism toward FC København.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Krogh

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Deronjic

1st Assistant

D. Cortzen

2nd Assistant

J. Rasmussen

4th Official

Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
VS
FC København B. Svensson
B. Svensson
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: 57 L
Randers FC Rank: 59 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 D
Odense BK Rank: 58 L
FC København Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 W
Odense BK Rank: 58 W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 W
Randers FC Rank: 60 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 61 W
Fredericia Rank: 52 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredericia
17.77%
Draw
20.13%
Away FC København
62.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fredericia
+12.85%
Draw
-67.17%
FC København
+54.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.72
69.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredericia
FC København
Power Score
44.72
69.38
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
717
220

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
FC København — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredericia FC København

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC København

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC København
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.98
38.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.95
41.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredericia +0.30 Efficiency Index
vs
FC København -0.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
FC København
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC København
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredericia FC København
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredericia FC København
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
FC København
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fredericia
vs
FC København
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fredericia FC København
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fredericia 0.39
FC København 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fredericia FC København
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fredericia 0.05
FC København 0.07
Fredericia
FC København
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COP had peak pressure around 68'.
  • Fredericia started the game with stronger pressure.
Fredericia Pressure COP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: COP reached the top pressure at 68' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredericia Fredericia Home
3 matches
FC København COP Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
4
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
1.01
xG
5.85
5.85
xGA
1.01

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
V. Thorsen
Denmark
90 V. Thorsen
S. Crone
Substitution
Denmark
12 S. Crone
A. Nygaard Andersen
Substitution
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 F. Thykær Rieper
J. Jessen
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
D. Kristjánsson
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
A. Andersen
Denmark
18 A. Andersen
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
J. Holm Lindekilde
Substitution
Denmark
21 J. Holm Lindekilde
E. Simonsen
Substitution
Denmark
10 E. Simonsen
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim
Pitch
D. Kotarski
Croatia
1 D. Kotarski
M. López Lanfranco
Substitution
Peru
15 M. López Lanfranco
M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
Denmark
25 M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
P. Hatzidiakos
Greece
6 P. Hatzidiakos
J. Suzuki
Japan
20 J. Suzuki
M. Achouri
Substitution
Tunisia
30 M. Achouri
W. Clem
Substitution
Denmark
36 W. Clem
M. Madsen
Substitution
Denmark
21 M. Madsen
J. Larsson
Sweden
11 J. Larsson
M. Elyounoussi
Norway
10 M. Elyounoussi
A. Cornelius
Substitution
Denmark
14 A. Cornelius

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 8 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Monjasa Park
Capacity :
10000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Morten Krogh
Esad Deronjic
Daniel Cortzen
Jacob Rasmussen

Statistics

Possession
Fredericia
44%
COP
56%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
5 Big Chances Created 2
16 Shots 19
41 Dangerous attacks 64
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

21 Throwins 13
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
3 Assists 2
10 Successful Dribbles 7
10 Goal Kicks 10
23 Dribble Attempts 13
4 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 13
71 Ball Safe 69
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

72 Attacks 107
5 Counter Attacks 3
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

296 Passes 406
76 Successful Passes Percentage 83
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
39 Long Passes 56
14 Key Passes 13
225 Successful Passes 338
14 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

51 Duels Won 53
9 Interceptions 7
11 Tackles 23
2 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

90
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
6.55
14
Anders Dahl
Anders Dahl
Defender82'
6.47
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper Defender
6.99
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
6.84
12
Svenn Crone
Svenn Crone Defender
6.46
4
Jeppe Kudsk
Jeppe Kudsk
Defender46'
6.58
10
Emilio Simonsen
Emilio Simonsen Midfielder
6.73
97
Oscar Buch
Oscar Buch
Attacker74'
6.85
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
6.83
7
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
Midfielder74'
6.65
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
6.64
18
Andreas Pyndt
Andreas Pyndt Midfielder
6.72
21
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde Midfielder
6.81
9
Patrick Egelund
Patrick Egelund
Attacker88'
6.66
25
Etim
Etim Attacker
2
6.97
Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Kotarski
Dominik Kotarski Goalkeeper
6.79
6
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
Pantelis Hatzidiakos Defender
6.84
15
Marcos López
Marcos López Defender
7.06
7
Viktor Claesson
Viktor Claesson
Midfielder88'
6.74
20
Junnosuke Suzuki
Junnosuke Suzuki Defender
6.99
25
Zanka
Zanka Defender
6.8
11
Jordan Larsson
Jordan Larsson Midfielder
7.08
21
M. Madsen
M. Madsen Midfielder
6.89
44
Geovanni Vianney
Geovanni Vianney
Attacker88'
6.91
30
Elias Achouri
Elias Achouri Midfielder
6.83
16
Robert
Robert
Midfielder74'
6.75
36
William Clem
William Clem Midfielder
6.91
27
Thomas Delaney
Thomas Delaney
Midfielder46'
6.7
10
Mohamed Elyounoussi
Mohamed Elyounoussi Attacker
7.22
14
Andreas Cornelius
Andreas Cornelius Attacker
6.71
39
Viktor Bjarki Dadason
Viktor Bjarki Dadason
Attacker65'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Geovanni Vianney
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Elias Achouri
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Thomas Delaney
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Patrick Egelund → Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Viktor Claesson → Marcos López
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Geovanni Vianney → M. Madsen
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Jordan Larsson
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Etim
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
83'
Event
Anders Dahl → Adam Nygaard Andersen
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Oscar Buch → Emilio Simonsen
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen → Sofus Johannesen
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Robert → Elias Achouri
6th Substitution
Event
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
65'
Event
Viktor Bjarki Dadason → Andreas Cornelius
3rd Substitution
Event
Jeppe Kudsk → Svenn Crone
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Thomas Delaney → William Clem
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
William Clem
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
M. Madsen
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Goal awarded
25'
Event
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
24'
11'
Event
Andreas Cornelius
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Etim
Header / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Geovanni Vianney.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thomas Delaney receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Robert Vinicius Rodrigues Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Freyr Kristjansson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Substitution Substitution
Geovanni Vianney is substituted for Mads Emil Madsen.
88
Update Update
Patrick Egelund replaces Jonatan Lindekilde.
88
Update Update
Viktor Claesson comes on for Marcos Johan Lopez Lanfranco.
87
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Larsson scores with a left-footed shot.
87
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Jordan Larsson scores, making it 3-3.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Larsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Lindekilde takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Anders Dahl comes on for Adam Andersen.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Elyounoussi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Substitution Substitution
Robert Vinicius Rodrigues Silva is substituted for Mohamed Elias Achouri.
74
Update Update
Oscar Buch replaces Emilio Simonsen.
74
Update Update
Gustav Marcussen comes on for Sofus Johannesen.
73
Attempt Attempt
Emilio Simonsen's right-footed shot is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Kudsk Jeppe takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Friday Ubi Etim takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Frederik Rieper receives a yellow card.
69
Attempt Attempt
Mads Emil Madsen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Junnosuke Suzuki takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
65
Update Update
Viktor Dadason replaces Andreas Cornelius.
60
Attempt Attempt
Pantelis Hatzidiakos attempts a header but misses the shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Junnosuke Suzuki takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mads Emil Madsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Mads Emil Madsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Johan Lopez Lanfranco takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
47
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Johan Lopez Lanfranco takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Thomas Delaney is on, and William Clem is off.
46
Substitution Substitution
Kudsk Jeppe is substituted off for Svenn Crone.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Larsson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Larsson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Elyounoussi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot taken by Friday Ubi Etim, but it misses the target.
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Friday Ubi Etim, but it misses the target.
35
Attempt Attempt
Emilio Simonsen's left-footed shot is blocked.
32
Update Update
Goal! Mads Emil Madsen scores, making it 2-2.
32
Attempt Attempt
Mads Emil Madsen scores with a left-footed shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohamed Elias Achouri with his right foot misses the target.
29
Attempt Attempt
Emilio Simonsen attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
William Clem takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms the goal.
24
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Lindekilde takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
24
Update Update
Goal! Jonatan Lindekilde scores, making it 2-1.
17
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Cornelius takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Cornelius takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
11
Update Update
Goal! Andreas Cornelius scores, making it 1-1.
10
Attempt Attempt
Sofus Johannesen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Emilio Simonsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Emilio Simonsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Friday Ubi Etim scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC København exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Fredericia vs FC København preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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