France vs Morocco Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Boston Stadium Today - 8:00 PM
World Cup
France FRA
2 Winner 0
Morocco MAR
Full Time Today 8:00 PM
Quarter Finals
Goal
|

CONTEXT

France secured a 2-0 victory over Morocco with both goals coming after a scoreless first half that left the teams even at the break. France posted 2.44 expected goals against Morocco's 0.22 for a differential of 2.22 while holding 48 percent possession to the visitors 52 percent. No red cards were shown to either side. The stronger team prevailed in line with pre-match indicators and the outcome matched the expected goals profile. A significant structural deviation of 39.7 percent was recorded for France yet the result remained consistent with underlying metrics. The match featured no second half adjustments or knockout tie elements.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: France recorded a significant 39.7 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's output.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with the 2.22 expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match indicators for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: France created 2.44 expected goals while Morocco managed 0.22.
  • Event impact: The sides stayed level at 0-0 after halftime before the 2-0 finish.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued and no distortion occurred from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
France D. Deschamps
D. Deschamps
VS
Morocco M. Ouahbi
M. Ouahbi
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paraguay Rank: W
Sweden Rank: W
Norway Rank: W
Iraq Rank: W
Senegal Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Canada Rank: W
Netherlands Rank: D
Haiti Rank: W
Scotland Rank: W
Brazil Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home France
60.3%
Draw
24.83%
Away Morocco
14.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
France
-37.59%
Draw
+22.91%
Morocco
+14.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
46.52
34.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
France
Morocco
Power Score
46.52
34.44
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
1
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
France — Opponent-weighted form score
Morocco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) France Morocco

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

France

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Morocco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

France
vs
Morocco
Created Set-piece attacking threat
France Morocco
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
51%
45%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.24 vs -0.10
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
France Morocco
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
45%
51%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.10 vs -1.24
France
Morocco
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
France
vs
Morocco
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
France Morocco
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
France 0.00
Morocco 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
France Morocco
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
France 0.00
Morocco 0.00
France
Morocco
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FRA had peak pressure around 22'.
  • FRA started the game with stronger pressure.
FRA Pressure MAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FRA reached the top pressure at 22' (97.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

France FRA Home
1 matches
Morocco MAR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:06:44+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Quarter Finals
Stadium :
Boston Stadium
Capacity :
66829
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Statistics

Possession
FRA
51%
MAR
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 35
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

43 Ball Safe 54
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Kicks 13
12 Goal Attempts 1
4 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Successful Headers 1
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0
21 Dribble Attempts 18
8 Successful Dribbles 10
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56

Attacking

113 Attacks 82
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

29 Long Passes 38
481 Passes 521
429 Successful Passes 449
89 Successful Passes Percentage 86
15 Key Passes 4
14 Successful Long Passes 11
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

1 Saves 6
11 Tackles 17
11 Interceptions 6
41 Duels Won 36

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 12

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
6.97
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Centre Forward
8.31
14
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Defensive Midfield
7.25
3
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Left Back
7.03
4
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Right Back
7.32
5
Jules Koundé
Jules Koundé Right Back
7.03
6
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Defensive Midfield
7
7
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Right Wing
7.8
11
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Attacking Midfield
7.95
12
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Left Wing
7.1
17
William Saliba
William Saliba Left Back
6.99

Starting XI ▼

1
Yassine Bounou
Yassine Bounou Goalkeeper
6.69
9
Soufiane Rahimi
Soufiane Rahimi Centre Forward
7.13
2
Achraf Hakimi
Achraf Hakimi Right Back
7.87
3
Noussair Mazraoui
Noussair Mazraoui Left Back
7.08
6
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Defensive Midfield
6.85
8
Azzedine Ounahi
Azzedine Ounahi Attacking Midfield
7.32
10
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Right Wing
7.13
14
Issa Diop
Issa Diop Right Back
7.03
23
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss Left Wing
7
24
Neil El Aynaoui
Neil El Aynaoui Defensive Midfield
7.09
25
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Left Back
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Malo Gusto → Jules Koundé
9th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Amine Sbaï → Chemsdine Talbi
8th Substitution
Event
Bradley Barcola → Désiré Doué
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Kylian Mbappé
7th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Zakaria El Ouahdi → Anass Salah-Eddine
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Gessime Yassine → Brahim Díaz
5th Substitution
Event
Warren Zaïre-Emery → Manu Koné
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
63'
Event
Issa Diop
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
62'
Event
Sofyan Amrabat → Ayyoub Bouaddi
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Soufiane Rahimi → Bilal El Khannouss
2nd Substitution
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Goalkeeper save
28'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Bradley Barcola (France) is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi commits a foul for Morocco.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Morocco after Lucas Digne concedes.
90
Update Update
Amine Sbaï from Morocco commits a handball.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Zakaria El Ouahdi of Morocco.
90
Update Update
Michael Olise wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Jean-Philippe Mateta's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Yassine Bounou in the center of the goal. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Gessime Yassine from Morocco takes a left-footed shot from over 40 yards on the right wing, but it goes too high. He was assisted by Sofyan Amrabat.
88
Corner Corner
France wins a corner, conceded by Yassine Bounou.
88
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Bradley Barcola's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved.
88
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Jean-Philippe Mateta's header from close range is too high. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Malo Gusto comes on for Jules Koundé.
86
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Michael Olise (France) took a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Morocco: Amine Sbaï comes on for Chemsdine Talbi.
84
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Neil El Aynaoui (Morocco) had a header from the left side of the six-yard box after a corner.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Morocco after a concession by Michael Olise.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Azzedine Ounahi from Morocco has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved.
83
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Morocco wins a free kick in the attacking half.
83
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot commits a foul for France.
82
Update Update
Zakaria El Ouahdi from Morocco is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Jules Koundé of France.
80
Corner Corner
France win a corner after Issa Diop concedes.
79
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery commits a foul for France.
79
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Bradley Barcola comes on for Désiré Doué.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Jean-Philippe Mateta comes on for Kylian Mbappé due to an injury.
77
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
76
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Kylian Mbappé from France.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Morocco: Gessime Yassine comes on for Brahim Díaz.
74
Update Update
Désiré Doué wins a free kick for France on the left wing.
74
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Morocco commits a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Morocco: Zakaria El Ouahdi comes on for Anass Salah-Eddine.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Morocco after Dayot Upamecano concedes.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Warren Zaïre-Emery comes on for Manu Koné.
67
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 2-0 against Morocco. Ousmane Dembélé scores for France with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
63
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé wins a free kick for France on the left wing.
63
Update Update
Issa Diop commits a foul for Morocco.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Issa Diop of Morocco receives a yellow card for a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Morocco: Sofyan Amrabat comes on for Ayyoub Bouaddi.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Morocco: Soufiane Rahimi comes on for Bilal El Khannouss.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 1-0 against Morocco as Kylian Mbappé scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
58
Update Update
Jules Koundé commits a handball for France.
56
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé from France misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it too high.
55
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Yassine Bounou (Morocco) saves a right-footed shot from outside the box by Désiré Doué (France) in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Kylian Mbappé.
54
Update Update
Michael Olise of France wins a free kick in the defensive half.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayyoub Bouaddi of Morocco.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Morocco after a concession by Michael Olise.
48
Attempt Attempt
Brahim Díaz's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked, with assistance from Azzedine Ounahi.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between France and Morocco.
45
Attempt Attempt
Manu Koné's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Digne from France hits the crossbar with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Désiré Doué of France.
45
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot commits a handball for France.
45
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Hakimi from Morocco attempts a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses to the right from a direct free kick.
42
Update Update
Bilal El Khannouss from Morocco is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
42
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano commits a foul for France.
42
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
42
Update Update
Azzedine Ounahi from Morocco commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba (France).
39
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Manu Koné wins a free kick for France in the attacking half.
38
Update Update
Neil El Aynaoui from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Jules Koundé's header from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Michael Olise's cross.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Yassine Bounou concedes.
35
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Yassine Bounou (Morocco) saves a right-footed shot from the center of the box by Désiré Doué (France), which was aimed at the bottom left corner.
33
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ousmane Dembélé from France, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
32
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
29
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
28
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Kylian Mbappé's right-footed shot for France is saved.
25
Update Update
Penalty awarded to France as Kylian Mbappé is fouled in the penalty area.
25
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui of Morocco concedes a penalty for a foul in the penalty area.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Morocco after Lucas Digne concedes.
21
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Adrien Rabiot (France) had a header from the center of the box after a corner.
20
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Noussair Mazraoui concedes.
20
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Ousmane Dembélé's left-footed shot from outside the box for France is blocked. Manu Koné provided the assist.
19
Update Update
Neil El Aynaoui from Morocco commits a handball.
18
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ousmane Dembélé (France) took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Digne (France).
15
Update Update
Azzedine Ounahi from Morocco wins a free kick on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Michael Olise from France is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Neil El Aynaoui of Morocco.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Désiré Doué from France has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked.
9
Update Update
Désiré Doué commits a foul for France.
9
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Morocco is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Attempt Attempt
Dayot Upamecano's header is saved.
4
Corner Corner
Kylian Mbappé's attempt from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Yassine Bounou. The shot was assisted by Désiré Doué.
4
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Dayot Upamecano's header from close range is saved in the center of the goal by Yassine Bounou. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist with a cross.
2
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Facundo Tello Figueroa.

CONCLUSION

France controlled the contest through superior chance creation that produced the 2-0 margin over Morocco. The expected goals figures highlighted a clear gap that translated directly into the result without variance from external factors. Possession remained nearly even yet the home side converted its opportunities more effectively after the interval. Absence of red cards preserved the intended structure and allowed the stronger team to dictate terms throughout the second half. The significant deviation from initial projections did not alter the underlying alignment between performance data and final scoreline. Overall the metrics supported a straightforward outcome driven by efficiency rather than external events.

France vs Morocco preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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