Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Fortuna Sittard Stadion Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard FOR
3 Winner 2
PEC Zwolle PEC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Kaj Sierhuis - 65'
Yassin Oukili - 50'
Lance Duijvestijn - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Zico Buurmeester - 90+3'
Gabriël Reiziger - 75'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fortuna Sittard 3–2 PEC Zwolle. The result saw Fortuna Sittard take the points. Fortuna Sittard showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fortuna Sittard exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Match result fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations not evaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events impacted play.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Martens

Netherlands
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Beijer

1st Assistant

Netherlands

K. Weever

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

N. Boel

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.36
Yellow cards / match 2.4
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.1
Fortuna Sittard D. Buijs
D. Buijs
VS
PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: 76 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 L
NAC Breda Rank: 54 D
AZ Rank: 76 L
FC Twente Rank: 77 L
FC Volendam Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: 56 W
PSV Rank: 85 L
Excelsior Rank: 62 D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 L
NAC Breda Rank: 54 W
FC Groningen Rank: 67 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fortuna Sittard
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away PEC Zwolle
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.03
62.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle
Power Score
62.03
62.94
League Position
11
13
Global Rank
428
401

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fortuna Sittard — Opponent-weighted form score
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fortuna Sittard

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

PEC Zwolle

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fortuna Sittard ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PEC Zwolle
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.74
19.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.91
31.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fortuna Sittard +1.24 Efficiency Index
vs
PEC Zwolle -1.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fortuna Sittard ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PEC Zwolle
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fortuna Sittard
vs
PEC Zwolle
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fortuna Sittard 0.23
PEC Zwolle 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fortuna Sittard 0.04
PEC Zwolle 0.06
Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FOR had peak pressure around 9'.
  • FOR started the game with stronger pressure.
FOR Pressure PEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FOR reached the top pressure at 9' (99.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fortuna Sittard FOR Home
13 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Away
Match Record
4
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
15
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Branderhorst
Netherlands
31 M. Branderhorst
N. Kasanwirjo
Netherlands
21 N. Kasanwirjo
S. van Ottele
Netherlands
6 S. van Ottele
J. Hubner
Netherlands
28 J. Hubner
D. Bisschops
Substitution
42 D. Bisschops
T. Schenkhuizen
Substitution
38 T. Schenkhuizen
Y. Oukili
Morocco
5 Y. Oukili
D. Limnios
Substitution
Greece
18 D. Limnios
L. Duijvestijn
Netherlands
70 L. Duijvestijn
K. Peterson
Sweden
7 K. Peterson
K. Sierhuis
Substitution
Netherlands
9 K. Sierhuis
Pitch
T. de Graaff
Netherlands
16 T. de Graaff
A. McNulty
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
4 A. McNulty
T. Velthuis
Netherlands
5 T. Velthuis
S. Graves Jensen
Denmark
28 S. Graves Jensen
O. Aertssen
Netherlands
3 O. Aertssen
Z. Buurmeester
Netherlands
8 Z. Buurmeester
N. Fichtinger
Substitution
Netherlands
34 N. Fichtinger
K. de Rooij
Substitution
Netherlands
22 K. de Rooij
T. Oosting
Netherlands
25 T. Oosting
O. Velanas
Substitution
Netherlands
18 O. Velanas
K. Kostons
Netherlands
10 K. Kostons

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Capacity :
12500
Attendance :
10117
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Richard Martens
Martijn Beijer
Kevin Weever
Niels Boel

Statistics

Possession
FOR
48%
PEC
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 1
52 Dangerous attacks 55
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 19
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
11 Successful Headers 13
18 Dribble Attempts 6
6 Goal Kicks 10
1 Assists 2
8 Successful Dribbles 3
4 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 3
85 Ball Safe 90
7 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

80 Attacks 94
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

313 Successful Passes 376
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
81 Successful Passes Percentage 83
385 Passes 455
70 Long Passes 44
31 Successful Long Passes 15
4 Key Passes 7

Defensive

11 Tackles 18
12 Interceptions 10
40 Duels Won 41
1 Saves 1

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 6
16 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

31
Mattijs Branderhorst
Mattijs Branderhorst Goalkeeper
6
Syb van Ottele
Syb van Ottele Defender
21
Neraysho Kasanwirjo
Neraysho Kasanwirjo Defender
28
Justin Hubner
Justin Hubner Defender
42
Daan Bisschops
Daan Bisschops Defender
36
Hasip Korkmazyürek
Hasip Korkmazyürek
Midfielder90+4'
5
Yassin Oukili
Yassin Oukili Midfielder
7
Kristoffer Peterson
Kristoffer Peterson Midfielder
18
Dimitrios Limnios
Dimitrios Limnios Midfielder
10
Alen Halilovic
Alen Halilovic
Midfielder82'
38
Tristan Schenkhuizen
Tristan Schenkhuizen Midfielder
46
Moussa Gbemou
Moussa Gbemou
Midfielder82'
70
Lance Duijvestijn
Lance Duijvestijn Midfielder
9
Kaj Sierhuis
Kaj Sierhuis Attacker
—
Kaj Sierhuis
90+4'
Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Defender
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Defender
45
Rodney Kroeze
Rodney Kroeze
Defender73'
5
Tijs Velthuis
Tijs Velthuis Defender
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Defender
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Midfielder
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Midfielder
26
Jadiel Pereira da Gama
Jadiel Pereira da Gama
Midfielder73'
22
Kaj de Rooij
Kaj de Rooij Midfielder
20
Gabriël Reiziger
Gabriël Reiziger
Midfielder42'
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Midfielder
34
Nick Fichtinger
Nick Fichtinger Midfielder
35
Jamiro Monteiro
Jamiro Monteiro
Midfielder69'
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ganni Buyukhan → Kaj Sierhuis
7th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Hasip Korkmazyürek → Daan Bisschops
8th Substitution
90+4'
90+3'
Event
Zico Buurmeester
Header / 5th Goal
89'
Event
Rodney Kroeze
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Moussa Gbemou → Tristan Schenkhuizen
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Alen Halilovic → Dimitrios Limnios
6th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Gabriël Reiziger
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
73'
Event
Jadiel Pereira da Gama → Odysseus Velanas
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Rodney Kroeze → Anselmo García MacNulty
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Jamiro Monteiro → Nick Fichtinger
2nd Substitution
Event
Kaj Sierhuis
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Yassin Oukili
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Gabriël Reiziger → Kaj de Rooij
1st Substitution
Event
Lance Duijvestijn
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

Match Commentary

5
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Daan Bisschops of Fortuna Sittard headed the ball from a few meters out after a corner.
4
Corner Corner
Fortuna Sittard wins a corner after Olivier Aertssen concedes.
3
Update Update
Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle has won a free kick in the attacking zone.
3
Update Update
Fouled by Yassin Oukili of Fortuna Sittard.
2
Attempt Attempt
Yassin Oukili's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Fortuna Sittard's 3-2 triumph over PEC Zwolle underscores a minimal 4.4% structural deviation, affirming their edge despite PEC's 54% possession and stronger billing. Market alignment held true, with efficiency steady and no red card interferences skewing dynamics. Lacking xG metrics prevents precise chance conversion analysis, yet the halftime 1-0 lead and second-half resolve highlight Fortuna's adaptability. This result bolsters their standing, proving underdogs can prevail through grit and precision in balanced contests.

Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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