FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
1 Winner 2
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
Adrián Balboa - 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Roman Zobnin - 72'
Esequiel Barco - 45+1' (P)

CONTEXT

FK Nizjni Novgorod faced Spartak Moskva in a competitive Russian Premier League match, concluding with a 1-2 victory for the visitors. The halftime score was tied at 1-1, reflecting a balanced opening period despite Spartak's dominance in possession at 65% to Nizjni Novgorod's 35%. Spartak, identified as the stronger team pre-match, secured the win without any red cards disrupting play. This outcome showed a significant structural deviation of 100% in Spartak's favor, with efficiency remaining in line with expectations. No xG data was available to assess chance creation alignment. The second half saw Spartak capitalize effectively, pulling ahead after the break with no major tactical adjustments noted. Nizjni Novgorod fought resiliently but couldn't overcome the possession disparity and Spartak's clinical finishing. This result underscores Spartak's superiority on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva's 1-2 win showed a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with final score.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No xG data available to evaluate against expectations.
  • Event impact: No red cards or major events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Kaplenkov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Demeshko

1st Assistant

A. Bogdanov

2nd Assistant

S. Matveev

4th Official

FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.77
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Rostov Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
Rostov Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away Spartak Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.83
30.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Spartak Moskva
Power Score
15.83
30.87
League Position
15
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Spartak Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.86
21.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.38
21.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod +0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Spartak Moskva -0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Spartak Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Spartak Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FK Nizjni Novgorod
vs
Spartak Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FK Nizjni Novgorod Spartak Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.18
Spartak Moskva 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Spartak Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.03
Spartak Moskva 0.03
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Spartak Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 52'.
  • Spartak Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure Spartak Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 52' (74.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
4
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
V. Aleksandrov
Russia
2 V. Aleksandrov
I. Kirsh
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
N. Kalinsky
Russia
78 N. Kalinsky
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
E. Smelov
Substitution
Russia
17 E. Smelov
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
R. Zobnin
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
C. Wooh
France
3 C. Wooh
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
C. Martins Pereira
Substitution
Luxembourg
35 C. Martins Pereira
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
J. Costa Martins
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium
Capacity :
35000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Igor Kaplenkov
Igor Demeshko
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Stanislav Matveev

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
39%
Spartak Moskva
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 6
33 Dangerous attacks 58
35 Possession 65
3 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
0 Penalties 2
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
25 Throwins 32
6 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Dribble Attempts 16
12 Successful Headers 15
6 Goal Kicks 5
4 Substitutions 3
1 Injuries 2
4 Goal Attempts 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
77 Ball Safe 86

Attacking

71 Attacks 120

Possession

261 Passes 491
72 Successful Passes Percentage 86
188 Successful Passes 420
20 Successful Long Passes 24
65 Long Passes 49
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

17 Tackles 9
4 Saves 1
52 Duels Won 45
11 Interceptions 7

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4
15 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov Defender
6.54
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Defender
6.66
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
6.68
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
6.58
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Midfielder
6.97
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.78
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder78'
6.64
78
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Nikolay Kalinskiy Midfielder
6.63
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
6.73
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun
Attacker62'
6.79
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Attacker
6.41
27
Vyacheslav Grulev
Vyacheslav Grulev
Attacker89'
6.54
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
6.59
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker78'
6.55
Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
6.77
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
6.81
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Defender
6.7
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Defender
6.9
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov
Defender80'
6.81
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7.51
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
6.91
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
6.96
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins Midfielder
6.73
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev
Midfielder65'
6.87
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
6.96
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
6.94
11
Levi García
Levi García
Attacker80'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Daniil Denisov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev → E. Smelov
7th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Ruslan Litvinov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Daniil Denisov → Gedson Fernandes
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Levi García → Manfred Ugalde
6th Substitution
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Luka Tičić
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → R. Cephas
4th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Roman Zobnin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
Igor Dmitriev → Christopher Martins
2nd Substitution
Event
Olakunle Olusegun → Adrián Balboa
1st Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Esequiel Barco
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
E. Smelov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Adrián Balboa
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'

CONCLUSION

Spartak Moskva deservedly claimed a 1-2 win over FK Nizjni Novgorod, leveraging 65% possession and superior quality after a 1-1 halftime draw. As the pre-identified stronger side, their significant structural deviation highlighted effective execution without reliance on xG metrics, which were unavailable. Market alignment confirmed the result's consistency with expectations, while efficiency stayed in line. Lacking red cards or disruptions, the match showcased Spartak's second-half resolve against a resilient home side holding just 35% ball. This victory bolsters Spartak's standing, exposing Nizjni Novgorod's challenges in converting limited possession into points.

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Spartak Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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