FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium Sat, 18 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
1 – 1
Dinamo Moskva DMO
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
Olakunle Olusegun - 34'
Goal
|
Goal
Nicolás Marichal - 22'
Olakunle Olusegun 74' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

In a resilient display, FK Nizjni Novgorod secured a 1-1 draw against the stronger Dinamo Moskva in the Russian Premier League. The first half ended level at 1-1, with both teams finding the net once despite Nizjni holding only 28% possession to Dinamo's commanding 72%. The second half saw a pivotal red card to the home side, reducing them to ten men and introducing structural distortion. Dinamo dominated territory and ball control but failed to convert superiority into victory, resulting in a significant 100% deviation from expectations for the visitors. Efficiency metrics remained in line with standard measures, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Nizjni's defensive organization held firm under pressure, denying Dinamo a deserved win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw represented a significant 100% deviation for stronger team Dinamo Moskva.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with standard expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data null for both teams.
  • Event impact: Home red card altered match dynamics in second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion listed as key second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Prokopov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Naboka

4th Official

M. Gavrilin

1st Assistant

A. Bolotenkov

2nd Assistant

FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Rostov Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dinamo Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.13
29.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
16.13
29.72
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.43
31.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.94
26.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod -0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva +0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FK Nizjni Novgorod
vs
Dinamo Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.21
Dinamo Moskva 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.02
Dinamo Moskva 0.04
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DMO had peak pressure around 24'.
  • FK Nizjni Novgorod started the game with stronger pressure.
FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure DMO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DMO reached the top pressure at 24' (80.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
9
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
V. Aleksandrov
Russia
2 V. Aleksandrov
I. Kirsh
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
O. Olusegun
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
E. Smelov
Substitution
Russia
17 E. Smelov
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
M. Urvantsev
Substitution
14 M. Urvantsev
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
Pitch
I. Leshchuk
Russia
31 I. Leshchuk
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
M. Osipenko
Russia
55 M. Osipenko
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
J. Cáceres
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
D. Fomin
Substitution
Russia
74 D. Fomin
R. Dias
Substitution
Brazil
44 R. Dias
J. de Souza Mares
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
A. Miranchuk
Substitution
Russia
21 A. Miranchuk
A. Gomes Lourenço
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
K. Tyukavin
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium
Capacity :
35000
Attendance :
6424
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Danil Naboka
Maksim Gavrilin
Andrey Bolotenkov
Andrey Prokopov

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
33%
DMO
67%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 20
28 Dangerous attacks 60
28 Possession 72
2 Corners 12
10 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Injuries 2
2 Goal Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 4
78 Ball Safe 92
9 Successful Dribbles 7
14 Goal Kicks 2
18 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Assists 1
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
19 Throwins 25
14 Successful Headers 30

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
69 Attacks 117

Possession

60 Long Passes 61
142 Successful Passes 461
226 Passes 560
63 Successful Passes Percentage 82
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
15 Successful Long Passes 40

Defensive

3 Saves 0
47 Duels Won 68
12 Interceptions 11
14 Tackles 14

Build-up

4 Total Crosses 37
2 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov Defender
6.56
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
6.72
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
6.98
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Midfielder
6.65
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Midfielder
6.41
8
Mamadou Maiga
Mamadou Maiga
Midfielder90+2'
6.47
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.79
32
Vadim Pigas
Vadim Pigas
Defender80'
6.56
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Midfielder
6.78
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
6.77
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy
Attacker65'
6.66
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev Attacker
6.57
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder46'
6.65
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
6.63
19
Nikita Ermakov
Nikita Ermakov
Midfielder80'
6.56
Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

31
Igor Leshchuk
Igor Leshchuk Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
7
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.92
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
6.62
55
Maksim Osipenko
Maksim Osipenko Defender
6.97
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
7.45
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
6.99
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker65'
6.78
21
Anton Miranchuk
Anton Miranchuk Midfielder
7.04
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Attacker65'
6.75
44
Rubens
Rubens Midfielder
6.98
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin
Midfielder64'
6.61
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin Midfielder
6.81
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker78'
6.8
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
U. Babaev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mamadou Maiga → E. Smelov
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Sven Karič
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Nikita Ermakov → R. Cephas
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Vadim Pigas → Luka Tičić
8th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Ivan Sergeev → Daniil Fomin
6th Substitution
Event
Olakunle Olusegun
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
74'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy → Adrián Balboa
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
U. Babaev → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu → Anton Miranchuk
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Timofey Marinkin → Rubens
2nd Substitution
Event
Olakunle Olusegun
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Andrey Ivlev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Matvey Urvantsev
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrián Balboa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Olakunle Olusegun
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
22'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

FK Nizjni Novgorod's 1-1 draw against dominant Dinamo Moskva highlights exceptional defensive resilience, especially after their red card left them short-handed. Dinamo's 72% possession and status as the stronger side should have yielded a win, but a significant structural deviation occurred as they drew. Efficiency aligned normally, and the result matched market views, though absent xG limits full chance assessment. The red card distorted proceedings, curbing Dinamo's natural advantage and enabling Nizjni's organized rearguard to frustrate attacks. This outcome rewards grit over dominance.

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Dinamo Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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