FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium Sat, 18 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod 
1 – 1
Dinamo Moskva DMO Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 25 · Regular Season
Olakunle Olusegun - 34'
|
Nicolás Marichal - 22'
Olakunle Olusegun 74' 
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
In a resilient display, FK Nizjni Novgorod secured a 1-1 draw against the stronger Dinamo Moskva in the Russian Premier League. The first half ended level at 1-1, with both teams finding the net once despite Nizjni holding only 28% possession to Dinamo's commanding 72%. The second half saw a pivotal red card to the home side, reducing them to ten men and introducing structural distortion. Dinamo dominated territory and ball control but failed to convert superiority into victory, resulting in a significant 100% deviation from expectations for the visitors. Efficiency metrics remained in line with standard measures, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Nizjni's defensive organization held firm under pressure, denying Dinamo a deserved win.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: The draw represented a significant 100% deviation for stronger team Dinamo Moskva.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with standard expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data null for both teams.
- Event impact: Home red card altered match dynamics in second half.
- Red card distortion: Red card distortion listed as key second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
A. Prokopov
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
D. Naboka
4th Official
M. Gavrilin
1st Assistant
A. Bolotenkov
2nd Assistant
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
P. Alpatov
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Rostov Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 5
5
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) FK Nizjni Novgorod0%
Draw
0%
Dinamo Moskva0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.13 29.72 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo MoskvaPower Score
16.13
29.72
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Dinamo Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.43
31.94
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.94
26.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod -0.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva +0.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
FK Nizjni Novgorodvs
Dinamo Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.21
Dinamo Moskva 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.02
Dinamo Moskva 0.04
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Dinamo Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- DMO had peak pressure around 24'.
- FK Nizjni Novgorod started the game with stronger pressure.
FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure DMO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DMO reached the top pressure at 24' (80.47).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record 1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
1
Goals 9
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
9
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:24+00:00
STARTING XI
FK Nizjni Novgorod Dinamo Moskva Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
30 N. Medvedev
2 V. Aleksandrov
4 I. Kirsh
25 S. Karič
40 O. Olusegun
V. Pigas
#3280'
29 L. Vešner Tičić
M. Maiga
#890+2'
17 E. Smelov
3 Y. Koledin
A. Ivlev
#7746'
14 M. Urvantsev
D. Lesovoy
#8865'
10 A. Balboa Camacho
N. Ermakov
#1980'
21 R. Cephas
31 I. Leshchuk
7 D. Skopintsev
55 M. Osipenko
2 N. Marichal
4 J. Cáceres
I. Sergeev
#3378'
74 D. Fomin
T. Marinkin
#6064'
44 R. Dias
10 J. de Souza Mares
N. Ngamaleu
#1365'
21 A. Miranchuk
U. Babaev
#1765'
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
70 K. Tyukavin
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium
👥 Capacity :
35000
🎟️ Attendance :
6424
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ , Clear
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Danil Naboka
Maksim Gavrilin
Andrey Bolotenkov
Andrey Prokopov
Next Match
FK Nizjni Novgorod
vs
Orenburg
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Stadion Gazovik
Dinamo Moskva
vs
Rubin Kazan
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: VTB Arena (Moskva)
Statistics
Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
33%
DMO
67%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 20
28 Dangerous attacks 60
28 Possession 72
2 Corners 12
10 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0
Match Overview
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Injuries 2
2 Goal Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 4
78 Ball Safe 92
9 Successful Dribbles 7
14 Goal Kicks 2
18 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Assists 1
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
19 Throwins 25
14 Successful Headers 30
Attacking
0 Big Chances Missed 1
69 Attacks 117
Possession
60 Long Passes 61
142 Successful Passes 461
226 Passes 560
63 Successful Passes Percentage 82
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
15 Successful Long Passes 40
Defensive
3 Saves 0
47 Duels Won 68
12 Interceptions 11
14 Tackles 14
Build-up
4 Total Crosses 37
2 Accurate Crosses 10
Discipline
4 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 10
Lineup
FK Nizjni Novgorod Referee : Andrey Prokopov
Manager ▼
A. Shpilevskiy Coach
Starting XI ▼
30 Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
6.772 Viktor Aleksandrov Defender
6.564 Ilya Kirsch Defender
6.7225 Sven Karič Defender
6.98
3 Yuriy Koledin Midfielder
6.6517 E. Smelov Midfielder
6.418Mamadou Maiga
6.47Midfielder90+2'
29 Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.7932Vadim Pigas
6.56Defender80'
40 Olakunle Olusegun Midfielder
10 Adrián Balboa Attacker
6.77
88Daniil Lesovoy
6.66Attacker65'
14 Matvey Urvantsev Attacker
6.5777Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder46'
6.65
21 R. Cephas Attacker
6.6319Nikita Ermakov
6.56Midfielder80'
Substitutes ▼
77Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder46'
6.65
88Daniil Lesovoy
6.66Attacker65'
19Nikita Ermakov
6.56Midfielder80'
32Vadim Pigas
6.56Defender80'
8Mamadou Maiga
6.47Midfielder90+2'
Bench ▼
1 Vadim Lukyanov Goalkeeper
6.0551 Egor Koshkin Goalkeeper
16 Yaroslav Krashevskiy Defender
6.3269 Artem Sidorenko Midfielder
6.7178 Nikolay Kalinskiy Midfielder
6.6327 Vyacheslav Grulev Attacker
6.55 Dinamo Moskva Referee : Andrey Prokopov
Manager ▼
P. Alpatov Coach
Starting XI ▼
31 Igor Leshchuk Goalkeeper
6.52 Nicolás Marichal Defender
4 Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.927 Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
6.6255 Maksim Osipenko Defender
6.9710 Bitello Midfielder
7.4511 Arthur Gomes Midfielder
6.9917U. Babaev
Attacker65'
6.78
21 Anton Miranchuk Midfielder
7.0413Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
6.75Attacker65'
44 Rubens Midfielder
6.9860Timofey Marinkin
6.61Midfielder64'
74 Daniil Fomin Midfielder
6.8133Ivan Sergeev
6.8Attacker78'
70 K. Tyukavin Attacker
7.02Substitutes ▼
60Timofey Marinkin
6.61Midfielder64'
17U. Babaev
Attacker65'
6.78
13Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
6.75Attacker65'
33Ivan Sergeev
6.8Attacker78'
Bench ▼
40 Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper
6.6947
Andrei Kudravets Goalkeeper
5
M. Majstorović Defender
56 Leon Zaydenzal Defender
6.3857
David Ricardo Defender
6.6615
Danil Glebov Midfielder
6.7224
Luis Chávez Midfielder
91 Y. Gladyshev Attacker
6.66Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
U. Babaev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Mamadou Maiga → E. Smelov
9th Substitution
90+2'
Sven Karič
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Nikita Ermakov → R. Cephas
7th Substitution
80'
Vadim Pigas → Luka Tičić
8th Substitution
80'
78'
Ivan Sergeev → Daniil Fomin
6th Substitution
Olakunle Olusegun
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
74'
Daniil Lesovoy → Adrián Balboa
4th Substitution
65'
65'
U. Babaev → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
65'
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu → Anton Miranchuk
5th Substitution
64'
Timofey Marinkin → Rubens
2nd Substitution
Olakunle Olusegun
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Andrey Ivlev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Andrey Ivlev → Matvey Urvantsev
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Adrián Balboa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Olakunle Olusegun
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
22'
Nicolás Marichal
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
FK Nizjni Novgorod's 1-1 draw against dominant Dinamo Moskva highlights exceptional defensive resilience, especially after their red card left them short-handed. Dinamo's 72% possession and status as the stronger side should have yielded a win, but a significant structural deviation occurred as they drew. Efficiency aligned normally, and the result matched market views, though absent xG limits full chance assessment. The red card distorted proceedings, curbing Dinamo's natural advantage and enabling Nizjni's organized rearguard to frustrate attacks. This outcome rewards grit over dominance.
FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Dinamo Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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