FK Nizjni Novgorod vs CSKA Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium Mon, 11 May - 12:15 PM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
1 Winner 2
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
Full Time Mon, 11 May 12:15 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Daniil Lesovoy - 44'
Goal
|
Goal
Imran Firov - 90'
Danila Kozlov - 88'
Vadim Lukyanov 90+3' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

FK Nizjni Novgorod hosted CSKA Moskva in a competitive Russian Premier League encounter, taking a surprising 1-0 lead at halftime through effective counter-attacking despite holding only 37% possession. CSKA, the stronger team on paper, dominated proceedings with 63% ball control but struggled to convert in the first half. The turning point came in the second half when Nizjni Novgorod received a red card, leaving them with ten men. This numerical disadvantage allowed CSKA to ramp up pressure, scoring twice to overturn the deficit and win 1-2. The home side's defensive structure held firm initially but crumbled under sustained assault post-red card. CSKA's victory underscores their superior squad depth and tactical adjustments, while Nizjni Novgorod's effort exposed vulnerabilities in manpower shortages. The match exemplified how disciplinary lapses can decisively alter outcomes in uneven contests.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation favored CSKA Moskva with a 100% deviation percentage.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true for the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable with null data provided.
  • Event impact: Second-half red card to home team decisively shifted match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion evident in second-half adjustments after home team's dismissal.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Prokopov

Russia
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Belokur

2nd Assistant

Russia

E. Rubtsov

4th Official

Russia

D. Mosyakin

1st Assistant

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.81
Yellow cards / match 3.7
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.61
FK Nizjni Novgorod V. Garanin
V. Garanin
VS
CSKA Moskva D. Igdisamov
D. Igdisamov
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Orenburg Rank: 52 L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 64 D
Rostov Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 54 D
Sochi Rank: 53 L
Akron Rank: 55 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away CSKA Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.83
69.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
CSKA Moskva
Power Score
50.83
69.72
League Position
15
5
Global Rank
777
218

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod CSKA Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
54.46
33.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.65
54.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod +2.40 Efficiency Index
vs
CSKA Moskva -2.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
CSKA Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod CSKA Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod CSKA Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
CSKA Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FK Nizjni Novgorod
vs
CSKA Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FK Nizjni Novgorod CSKA Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.42
CSKA Moskva 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod CSKA Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.03
CSKA Moskva 0.02
FK Nizjni Novgorod
CSKA Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CSKA Moskva had peak pressure around 94'.
  • FK Nizjni Novgorod started the game with stronger pressure.
FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure CSKA Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CSKA Moskva reached the top pressure at 94' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
7
-14
Goal Difference
+14

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:01:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
N. Kakkoev
Russia
22 N. Kakkoev
I. Kirsh
Substitution
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
N. Kalinsky
Russia
78 N. Kalinsky
D. Lesovoy
Substitution
Russia
88 D. Lesovoy
O. Olusegun
Substitution
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
Pitch
V. Torop
Russia
49 V. Torop
M. Reis de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
2 M. Reis de Lima
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
J. Da Silva Marcelino
Substitution
Brazil
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
M. Gajić
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
M. Kislyak
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
A. Bandikyan
Substitution
Russia
52 A. Bandikyan
D. Barinov
Substitution
Russia
6 D. Barinov
I. Oblyakov
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
T. Musaev
Substitution
Russia
11 T. Musaev

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 12:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nizhny Novgorod Stadium
Capacity :
35000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maksim Belokur
Efim Rubtsov
Andrey Prokopov
Dmitri Mosyakin

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
40%
CSKA Moskva
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 11
43 Dangerous attacks 64
37 Possession 63
5 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 15
5 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
8 Successful Dribbles 6
10 Throwins 18
14 Successful Headers 21
12 Goal Kicks 7
15 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Assists 1
84 Ball Safe 91
2 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 111
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

229 Successful Passes 463
17 Successful Long Passes 44
57 Long Passes 66
73 Successful Passes Percentage 86
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
315 Passes 540

Defensive

7 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 4
39 Duels Won 58
12 Tackles 15

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 30
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

17 Fouls 5
4 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Defender
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov
Defender46'
22
Nikita Kakkoev
Nikita Kakkoev Defender
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder84'
78
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Nikolay Kalinskiy Midfielder
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy Midfielder
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa
Attacker46'
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
27
Vyacheslav Grulev
Vyacheslav Grulev
Attacker42'
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Attacker
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker72'
Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis Defender
20
Matija Popović
Matija Popović
Midfielder67'
4
João Victor
João Victor Defender
90
Matvey Lukin
Matvey Lukin
Defender73'
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Midfielder
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov
Midfielder57'
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
52
Artem Bandikyan
Artem Bandikyan Midfielder
62
Imran Firov
Imran Firov
Midfielder58'
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev Attacker
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker58'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vadim Lukyanov
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+3'
90'
Event
Imran Firov
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Viktor Aleksandrov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Danila Kozlov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Luka Tičić
10th Substitution
84'
73'
Event
Matvey Lukin → João Victor
9th Substitution
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → Olakunle Olusegun
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Vadim Lukyanov
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
69'
67'
Event
Matija Popović → Matheus Reis
7th Substitution
58'
Event
Imran Firov → Artem Bandikyan
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Maksim Voronov → Tamerlan Musaev
6th Substitution
57'
Event
Danila Kozlov → Dmitri Barinov
4th Substitution
Event
Viktor Aleksandrov → Ilya Kirsch
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Adrián Balboa → Daniil Lesovoy
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniil Lesovoy
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
44'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev → R. Cephas
1st Substitution
42'
Event
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oblyakov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Imran Firov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vadim Lukyanov receives a second yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Viktor Aleksandrov receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
Attempt Attempt
Matvey Urvantsev takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Milan Gajic takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Matvey Urvantsev takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Update Update
Andrey Ivlev comes on for Luka Ticic.
79
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Kakkoev attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Matvey Lukin comes on for Joao Victor Da Silva Marcelino.
72
Update Update
Matvey Urvantsev comes on for Olakunle Olusegun.
71
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Milan Gajic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vadim Lukyanov receives a yellow card.
67
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Matija Popovic comes on for Matheus Reis de Lima.
63
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic's right-footed shot is saved.
58
Update Update
Imran Firov is on, and Artem Bandikyan is off.
58
Update Update
Maksim Voronov comes on for Tamerlan Musaev.
57
Update Update
Danila Kozlov comes on for Dmitriy Barinov.
54
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Adrian Balboa comes on for Danylo Lisovy.
46
Update Update
Viktor Aleksandrov is on, and Ilya Kirsch is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Lisovy takes a left-footed shot and scores.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Danylo Lisovy scores to make it 1-0.
42
Update Update
Vyacheslav Grulev is on, and Renaldo Cephas is off.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nikolay Kalinskiy receives a yellow card.
38
Attempt Attempt
Renaldo Cephas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oblyakov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev attempts a header but misses the shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Matvey Kislyak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev's left-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Koledin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Lisovy's right-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oblyakov takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

CSKA Moskva's 1-2 triumph over FK Nizjni Novgorod validates their status as the stronger outfit, overcoming a halftime deficit through superior possession and exploitation of the opponent's red card. Nizjni Novgorod's first-half resilience gave way to inevitable pressure once reduced to ten players, highlighting the red card's profound influence on proceedings. This result aligns with market expectations and shows no notable efficiency shifts, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality insights. CSKA's adaptability in the second half proves pivotal, securing vital points while exposing Nizjni Novgorod's limitations under duress. The outcome reinforces structural advantages for the visitors in this fixture.

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs CSKA Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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