Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Artemio Franchi Mon, 13 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Fiorentina FIO
1 Winner 0
Lazio LAZ
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Robin Gosens - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Fiorentina and Lazio is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. Fiorentina secured the victory by scoring in the first half and then holding firm after the break, despite never controlling the flow of play. The result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Fiorentina, who converted their opportunities efficiently to claim all three points. Pre-match forecasts had given them a 40.5 percent share of likely outcomes, with the draw rated at 30.7 percent and an away win at 28.8 percent. The final score aligned with the broader pre-match projection, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. No expected goals data was available to assess deeper performance alignment. Lazio dominated possession at 66 percent to Fiorentina’s 34 percent but could not find a way through. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fiorentina showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Fabbri

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Vecchi

1st Assistant

A. Zingarelli

2nd Assistant

M. Perri

4th Official

Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: W
Parma Rank: D
Udinese Rank: L
Pisa Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: D
Bologna Rank: W
AC Milan Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: W
Torino Rank: L
Cagliari Rank: D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 7 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fiorentina
40.45%
Draw
30.71%
Away Lazio
28.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fiorentina
-54.27%
Draw
+25.62%
Lazio
+28.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.95
30.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fiorentina
Lazio
Power Score
34.95
30.87
League Position
15
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fiorentina Lazio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fiorentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fiorentina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.94
24.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.17
27.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fiorentina +0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Lazio -0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fiorentina
Lazio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fiorentina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fiorentina Lazio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fiorentina Lazio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fiorentina
Lazio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fiorentina
vs
Lazio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fiorentina Lazio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fiorentina 0.27
Lazio 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fiorentina Lazio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fiorentina 0.00
Lazio 0.03
Fiorentina
Lazio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LAZ had peak pressure around 9'.
  • LAZ started the game with stronger pressure.
FIO Pressure LAZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LAZ reached the top pressure at 9' (95.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fiorentina FIO Home
45 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
14
Wins
24
7
Draws
7
24
Losses
14
Goals
46
Goals Scored
66
66
Goals Conceded
46
-20
Goal Difference
+20

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
Spain
43 D. de Gea Quintana
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
Brazil
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
D. Rugani
Substitution
Italy
3 D. Rugani
L. Ranieri
Italy
6 L. Ranieri
R. Gosens
Substitution
Germany
21 R. Gosens
G. Fabbian
Italy
80 G. Fabbian
R. Mandragora
Italy
8 R. Mandragora
C. Ndour
Italy
27 C. Ndour
J. Harrison
England
17 J. Harrison
R. Piccoli
Italy
91 R. Piccoli
J. Fazzini
Substitution
Italy
22 J. Fazzini
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
M. Lazzari
Italy
29 M. Lazzari
K. Taylor
Substitution
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
P. Gabarrón Gil
Spain
4 P. Gabarrón Gil
T. Bašić
Substitution
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
M. Zaccagni
Substitution
Italy
10 M. Zaccagni
B. Dia
Substitution
Senegal
19 B. Dia
M. Cancellieri
Substitution
Italy
22 M. Cancellieri

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 13, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Capacity :
43147
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Fabbri
Valerio Vecchi
Andrea Zingarelli
Mario Perri

Statistics

Possession
FIO
39%
LAZ
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 13
30 Dangerous attacks 59
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
18 Successful Headers 15
4 Dribble Attempts 7
3 Successful Dribbles 3
21 Throwins 9
9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 5
58 Ball Safe 59
1 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

67 Attacks 130
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

290 Successful Passes 620
349 Passes 674
53 Long Passes 23
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65
83 Successful Passes Percentage 92
6 Key Passes 10
29 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

43 Duels Won 34
6 Saves 1
4 Interceptions 7
13 Tackles 10

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 22
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Dodô
Dodô Defender
6.91
3
Daniele Rugani
Daniele Rugani Defender
6.59
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic
Defender71'
6.78
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Defender
6.73
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Defender
6.83
62
Luís Balbo
Luís Balbo
Defender80'
6.54
8
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora Midfielder
7.08
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Midfielder
6.66
80
Giovanni Fabbian
Giovanni Fabbian Midfielder
6.67
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.65
22
Jacopo Fazzini
Jacopo Fazzini Attacker
6.54
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon
Attacker84'
7.09
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Attacker
6.69
Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
7
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
6.86
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.82
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
6.81
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari Defender
6.59
4
Patric
Patric Midfielder
6.68
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
6.97
20
Petar Ratkov
Petar Ratkov
Attacker79'
6.6
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
7.02
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Midfielder46'
6.59
10
Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni Attacker
7.02
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin
Attacker46'
6.77
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia Attacker
6.62
9
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker67'
6.8
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
6.87
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen
Attacker67'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Pedro
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Roberto Piccoli
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Manor Solomon → Jacopo Fazzini
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Luís Balbo → Robin Gosens
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Dodô
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
79'
Event
Petar Ratkov → Kenneth Taylor
6th Substitution
Event
Marin Pongracic → Daniele Rugani
5th Substitution
71'
67'
Event
Gustav Isaksen → Matteo Cancellieri
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Pedro → Boulaye Dia
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Penalty cancelled
63'
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Tijjani Noslin → Mattia Zaccagni 
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru → Toma Bašić
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniele Rugani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Robin Gosens
Header / 1st Goal
28'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Fiorentina leading Lazio 1-0.
90
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Luís Balbo concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Manuel Lazzari of Lazio.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pedro from Lazio receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Alessio Romagnoli concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Nuno Tavares concedes.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Fabbian of Fiorentina had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide of the goal. The assist came from Dodô, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Manuel Lazzari concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro of Lazio.
90
Corner Corner
Pedro from Lazio attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but David de Gea from Fiorentina saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Gustav Isaksen, who provided the cross.
90
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina won a free kick on the right wing.
88
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Alessio Romagnoli concedes.
86
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Nuno Tavares provided the assist with a cross.
85
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari of Lazio won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Manor Solomon replaces Jacopo Fazzini.
81
Update Update
Luís Balbo from Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro for Lazio.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dodô of Fiorentina receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Luís Balbo replaces Robin Gosens.
80
Update Update
Luís Balbo of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Petar Ratkov replaces Kenneth Taylor.
76
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin of Lazio missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. Gustav Isaksen provided the assist with a cross.
75
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina commits a handball.
74
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right from a free kick.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Gosens of Fiorentina.
73
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio won a free kick in the attacking area.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Marin Pongracic replaces Daniele Rugani.
68
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen of Lazio won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Fouled by Robin Gosens of Fiorentina.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Pedro replaces Boulaye Dia.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Gustav Isaksen replaces Matteo Cancellieri.
64
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Lazio.
63
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio has gone down, but the referee considers it simulation.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tijjani Noslin of Lazio receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jack Harrison from Fiorentina shot with his left foot from the right side of the box.
58
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Edoardo Motta concedes.
58
Corner Corner
Fiorentina has been awarded a corner after Edoardo Motta conceded it.
58
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jack Harrison of Fiorentina.
58
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nuno Tavares from Lazio.
57
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Boulaye Dia of Lazio.
55
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
54
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Tavares of Lazio has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked. The assist came from Boulaye Dia.
54
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Jack Harrison concedes.
52
Attempt Attempt
Patric's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Tijjani Noslin's cross.
52
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Rolando Mandragora concedes it.
51
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Jack Harrison concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Fiorentina leading 1-0 against Lazio.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru replaces Toma Basic.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru replaces Toma Basic.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Fiorentina 1, Lazio 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Fiorentina's goalkeeper David de Gea, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Kenneth Taylor.
44
Update Update
The first half ends with Fiorentina leading 1-0 against Lazio.
44
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
43
Corner Corner
Fiorentina is awarded a corner after Matteo Cancellieri concedes it.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Cancellieri of Lazio.
40
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina was awarded a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio.
32
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina won a free kick in an attacking position.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniele Rugani of Fiorentina receives a yellow card for a foul.
31
Update Update
Boulaye Dia of Lazio won a free kick in an attacking position.
31
Update Update
Boulaye Dia of Lazio won a free kick in the attacking area.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiorentina leads 1-0 after Robin Gosens heads the ball into the right corner from the center of the box, assisted by Jack Harrison's cross.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Cancellieri of Lazio.
25
Update Update
Robin Gosens of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari of Lazio won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Giovanni Fabbian of Fiorentina.
21
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio won a free kick on the left wing.
21
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina committed a foul.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Dodô from Fiorentina takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
19
Update Update
Dodô from Fiorentina commits a foul.
19
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio won a free kick on the left wing.
15
Update Update
Foul by Toma Basic of Lazio.
15
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Cher Ndour from Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Toma Basic of Lazio.
13
Update Update
Edoardo Motta from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jack Harrison's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Jacopo Fazzini.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Giovanni Fabbian of Fiorentina.
10
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved.
10
Corner Corner
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina had a missed chance as he shot with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the top right corner. Jacopo Fazzini provided the assist.
5
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina commits a handball.
4
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Jacopo Fazzini concedes.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Tavares from Lazio has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked.
4
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina commits a handball.
3
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after David de Gea concedes.
3
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but David de Gea of Fiorentina saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Boulaye Dia.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fiorentina exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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