Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Fri, 17 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
2 – 2
Rizespor Rizespor
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Kerem Aktürkoğlu - 86'
Talisca - 80' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Modibo Sagnan - 90+8'
Ali Sowe - 47'
|
Second yellow card Samet Akaydin 72'

CONTEXT

Fenerbahçe faced Rizespor in the Turkish Süper Lig, ending in a 2-2 draw despite the home team's status as the stronger side. Fenerbahçe held 60% possession against Rizespor's 40%, but the first half remained scoreless at 0-0. The second half saw all four goals, with Rizespor reduced to 10 men after a red card. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Rizespor equalized late, denying Fenerbahçe a victory. This result marked a significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations, where the hosts were heavily favored. The away team's efficiency in counter-attacks post-red card proved decisive, while Fenerbahçe struggled to capitalize on their dominance. No xG data was available to assess chance quality alignment. The draw highlighted resilience under pressure and the distorting effect of the sending-off on game flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed 82.2% significant deviation with draw instead of Fenerbahçe victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: Rizespor red card altered second-half dynamics toward defensive resilience.
  • Red card distortion: Away red card distorted match structure, enabling draw despite home dominance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kayatepe

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Doman

4th Official

B. Duran

1st Assistant

B. Gölen

2nd Assistant

Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
VS
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
2.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Samsunspor Rank: W
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
69.91%
Draw
17.81%
Away Rizespor
12.27%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fenerbahçe
-26.2%
Draw
+14.11%
Rizespor
+12.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.86
24.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
Power Score
39.86
24.85
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe Rizespor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.42
18.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.63
29.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fenerbahçe +1.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Rizespor -1.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe Rizespor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Rizespor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fenerbahçe
vs
Rizespor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fenerbahçe Rizespor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fenerbahçe 0.28
Rizespor 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Rizespor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fenerbahçe 0.07
Rizespor 0.04
Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FEN had peak pressure around 86'.
  • Rizespor started the game with stronger pressure.
FEN Pressure Rizespor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FEN reached the top pressure at 86' (89.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
27 matches
Rizespor Rizespor Away
Match Record
21
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
21
Goals
72
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
72
+44
Goal Difference
-44

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
E. Santana de Moraes
Brazil
31 E. Santana de Moraes
N. Cabral Semedo
Substitution
Portugal
27 N. Cabral Semedo
M. Škriniar
Slovakia
37 M. Škriniar
C. Söyüncü
Turkey
4 C. Söyüncü
A. Brown
Substitution
England
3 A. Brown
N. Kanté
France
17 N. Kanté
M. Guendouzi Olié
France
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
N. Dorgeles
Substitution
Mali
45 N. Dorgeles
A. Souza Conceição
Substitution
Brazil
94 A. Souza Conceição
M. Aktürkoğlu
Turkey
9 M. Aktürkoğlu
S. Cherif
Substitution
France
26 S. Cherif
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
C. Højer Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
5 C. Højer Nielsen
S. Akaydin
Turkey
3 S. Akaydin
A. Mocsi
Hungary
4 A. Mocsi
M. Pala
Turkey
54 M. Pala
T. Antalyalı
Substitution
Turkey
14 T. Antalyalı
V. Mihăilă
Substitution
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
Q. Laçi
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
I. Olawoyin
Substitution
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
L. António Augusto
Substitution
Angola
50 L. António Augusto
A. Sowe
Gambia
9 A. Sowe

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity :
50530
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe
Turgut Doman
Bersan Duran
Bilal Gölen

Statistics

Possession
FEN
57%
Rizespor
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 29
60 Possession 40
7 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 7
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 8
15 Dribble Attempts 16
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
19 Throwins 21
3 Goal Kicks 11
19 Successful Headers 12
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 2
15 Goal Attempts 7
80 Ball Safe 88
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

116 Attacks 63

Possession

9 Key Passes 6
442 Passes 298
357 Successful Passes 229
81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
47 Long Passes 59
18 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

9 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 3
18 Tackles 14
62 Duels Won 50

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 5
26 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

14 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

31
Ederson
Ederson Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
6.94
22
Levent Mercan
Levent Mercan
Defender55'
6.9
4
Çağlar Söyüncü
Çağlar Söyüncü Defender
7.02
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
6.89
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür
Defender90+6'
6.75
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar Defender
7.09
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
7.35
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Midfielder
7.09
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
7.14
45
Dorgeles Nene
Dorgeles Nene Midfielder
7.16
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba
Attacker55'
6.87
94
Talisca
Talisca Midfielder
7.3
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın
Attacker90+7'
6.85
26
Sidiki Chérif
Sidiki Chérif Attacker
6.55
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek
Midfielder70'
6.93
Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Samet Akaydin
Samet Akaydin Defender
7.16
4
Attila Mocsi
Attila Mocsi Defender
6.68
5
Casper Højer
Casper Højer Defender
6.8
37
Taha Şahin
Taha Şahin
Defender87'
6.83
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
6.71
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
6.78
65
Emir Ortakaya
Emir Ortakaya
Defender81'
6.38
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
6.79
17
Adedire Mebude
Adedire Mebude
Attacker90+1'
6.97
14
T. Antalyalı
T. Antalyalı Midfielder
6.63
6
Giannis Papanikolaou
Giannis Papanikolaou
Midfielder82'
6.69
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
7.22
50
Loide Augusto
Loide Augusto Midfielder
6.87
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan
Defender81'
6.81
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Modibo Sagnan
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Talisca
10th Substitution
90+7'
Event
Mert Müldür → Nélson Semedo
9th Substitution
90+6'
90+1'
Event
Adedire Mebude → Ibrahim Olawoyin
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Taha Şahin → Casper Højer
7th Substitution
Event
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
82'
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou → T. Antalyalı
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Modibo Sagnan → Loide Augusto
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Emir Ortakaya → Valentin Mihăilă
4th Substitution
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
80'
79'
Event
Yahia Fofana
7th Yellowcard
Event
Talisca
Penalty awarded
77'
72'
Event
Samet Akaydin
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
İsmail Yüksek → Sidiki Chérif
3rd Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Valentin Mihăilă
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Talisca
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
64'
61'
Event
Samet Akaydin
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Levent Mercan → Archie Brown
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Anthony Musaba → Dorgeles Nene
2nd Substitution
55'
47'
Event
Ali Sowe
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Casper Højer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Loide Augusto
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Event
T. Antalyalı
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Fenerbahçe's inability to secure a win against 10-man Rizespor exposed vulnerabilities in converting possession into goals, resulting in a 2-2 stalemate. The stronger home side's 60% control did not translate to victory, underscoring the away team's effective second-half adjustments post-red card. This significant deviation from expected outcomes emphasizes the impact of disciplinary events in high-stakes fixtures. Rizespor's draw demonstrates tactical discipline under adversity, while Fenerbahçe must refine finishing efficiency. Overall, the match illustrates how red card distortions can level playing fields in possession-dominant games.

Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.