Fenerbahçe vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
3 Winner 1
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Talisca - 72', 57', 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Amine Harit - 36'

CONTEXT

Fenerbahçe claimed a 3-1 victory over İstanbul Başakşehir in a competitive Turkish Süper Lig encounter. The match was evenly poised at 1-1 halftime, reflecting balanced play with Fenerbahçe holding 49% possession to Başakşehir's 51%. As the pre-designated stronger team, Fenerbahçe capitalized in the second half, scoring twice more without conceding. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad integrity throughout. The result exhibited a significant structural deviation of 45.5% favoring Fenerbahçe, consistent with pre-match market probabilities where home win stood at 54.5%. Efficiency dynamics stayed in line with expectations, though xG metrics were unavailable for precise evaluation. Absent major events or adjustments, the outcome underscored Fenerbahçe's superior execution under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed significant 45.5% deviation favoring Fenerbahçe.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No impactful events or second-half adjustments occurred.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Aksu

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Usta

1st Assistant

G. Barcın

2nd Assistant

G. Hasova

4th Official

Fenerbahçe Z. Göle
Z. Göle
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
2.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 86 L
Rizespor Rank: 68 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 65 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 64 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Galatasaray Rank: 87 L
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 4 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
54.45%
Draw
22.64%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
22.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fenerbahçe
-43.41%
Draw
+20.72%
İstanbul Başakşehir
+22.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.8
75.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
83.8
75.68
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
40
99

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
İstanbul Başakşehir
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fenerbahçe
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fenerbahçe 0.00
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fenerbahçe 0.00
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Fenerbahçe
İstanbul Başakşehir
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FEN had peak pressure around 31'.
  • FEN started the game with stronger pressure.
FEN Pressure IBA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FEN reached the top pressure at 31' (93.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
35 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
20
Wins
11
4
Draws
4
11
Losses
20
Goals
55
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
55
+19
Goal Difference
-19

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T16:30:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Günok
Türkiye
34 F. Günok
N. Cabral Semedo
Portugal
27 N. Cabral Semedo
C. Söyüncü
Türkiye
4 C. Söyüncü
J. Oosterwolde
Netherlands
24 J. Oosterwolde
M. Mercan
Germany
22 M. Mercan
N. Kanté
France
17 N. Kanté
İ. Yüksek
Türkiye
5 İ. Yüksek
F. Rodrigues Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 F. Rodrigues Santos
A. Musaba
Substitution
Netherlands
20 A. Musaba
A. Souza Conceição
Substitution
Brazil
94 A. Souza Conceição
M. Aktürkoğlu
Türkiye
9 M. Aktürkoğlu
Pitch
M. Şengezer
Türkiye
16 M. Şengezer
K. Karataş
Türkiye
88 K. Karataş
J. Opoku
Substitution
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
L. Duarte da Silva
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
Ö. Şahiner
Türkiye
42 Ö. Şahiner
U. Güneş
Substitution
Türkiye
20 U. Güneş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
A. Harit
Substitution
Morocco
25 A. Harit
E. Shomurodov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
Y. Sari
Türkiye
7 Y. Sari
B. Yıldırım
Substitution
Türkiye
91 B. Yıldırım

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity :
50530
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anıl Usta
Oğuzhan Aksu
Gökhan Barcın
Gürcan Hasova

Statistics

Possession
FEN
49%
IBA
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 4
63 Dangerous attacks 35
49 Possession 51
10 Corners 2
3 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
67 Ball Safe 79
14 Goal Attempts 11
10 Throwins 14
10 Successful Dribbles 9
9 Successful Headers 10
20 Dribble Attempts 15
12 Goal Kicks 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
2 Assists 1

Attacking

97 Attacks 84
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 70
22 Successful Long Passes 40
332 Successful Passes 352
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
18 Key Passes 12
405 Passes 422
82 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

3 Saves 6
10 Interceptions 11
11 Tackles 14
33 Duels Won 45

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
13 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

34
Mert Günok
Mert Günok Goalkeeper
6.15
4
Çağlar Söyüncü
Çağlar Söyüncü Defender
6.97
22
Levent Mercan
Levent Mercan Defender
6.85
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
6.82
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
6.87
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder
6.89
7
Fred
Fred Midfielder
6.99
11
Edson Álvarez
Edson Álvarez
Midfielder90'
6.95
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
7.09
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Attacker
7.08
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba Attacker
6.87
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın
Attacker66'
6.86
94
Talisca
Talisca Attacker
3
7.3
26
Sidiki Chérif
Sidiki Chérif
Attacker82'
6.54
Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
6.83
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba
Defender46'
6.76
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
7
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
6.7
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
6.55
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
7.21
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.89
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
7.28
10
Nuno Da Costa
Nuno Da Costa
Attacker74'
6.79
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
6.73
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder61'
6.62
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Midfielder
7.05
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic
Attacker61'
6.88
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker
6.86
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke
Attacker61'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Edson Álvarez → Fred
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Sidiki Chérif → Talisca
7th Substitution
82'
Event
N'Golo Kanté
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
74'
Event
Nuno Da Costa → Eldor Shomurodov
6th Substitution
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
72'
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Anthony Musaba
5th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Ivan Brnic → Amine Harit
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Onur Ergün → Umut Güneş
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Davie Selke → Bertuğ Yıldırım
4th Substitution
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
46'
Event
Ousseynou Ba
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ousseynou Ba → Jerome Opoku
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Jerome Opoku
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jayden Oosterwolde
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'
36'
Event
Amine Harit
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Talisca
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
Event
Var
22'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Brnic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Edson Omar Alvarez Velazquez is on, and Frederico Rodrigues Santos is off.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Brnic's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Muhammed Kerem Akturkoglu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke takes a header shot but misses.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ngolo Kante receives a yellow card.
82
Update Update
Sidiki Cherif comes on for Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca.
81
Attempt Attempt
Frederico Rodrigues Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
Update Update
Nuno Da Costa replaces Eldor Shomurodov.
74
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Kemendi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot and scores.
72
Update Update
Goal! Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Frederico Rodrigues Santos.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Brnic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Frederico Rodrigues Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Oguz Aydin replaces Anthony Musaba.
65
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke's header is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Davie Selke is on, and Bertug Yildirim is off.
61
Update Update
Ivan Brnic comes on for Amine Harit.
61
Update Update
Onur Ergun comes on, and Umut Gunes goes off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot and scores.
57
Attempt Attempt
Frederico Rodrigues Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Bertug Yildirim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Frederico Rodrigues Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ngolo Kante takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ousseynou Ba receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Ousseynou Ba replaces Jerome Opoku.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jerome Opoku receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jayden Oosterwolde receives a yellow card.
41
Attempt Attempt
Nelson Cabral Semedo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Omer Ali Sahiner's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Oosterwolde takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Ismail Yuksek takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Kazimcan Karatas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ismail Yuksek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Musaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Fenerbahçe's 3-1 win over İstanbul Başakşehir affirmed their stronger standing, transforming a 1-1 halftime deadlock into second-half dominance despite near-even possession. The significant structural deviation of 45.5% highlighted their edge, aligning seamlessly with market views. Efficiency held steady without shifts, and lack of red cards or events preserved natural progression. This factual outcome bolsters Fenerbahçe's campaign, emphasizing clinical finishing and resilience in balanced contests.

Fenerbahçe vs İstanbul Başakşehir preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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