FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadion Galgenwaard Sat, 2 May - 2:30 PM
Eredivisie
FC Utrecht UTR
2 Winner 0
NAC Breda NAC
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Adrian Blake - 90+9'
Dani de Wit - 86'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Mohamed Nassoh 35'

CONTEXT

FC Utrecht claimed a 2-0 home victory over NAC Breda, breaking a goalless halftime deadlock with both goals arriving after the visitors were reduced to 10 men via a red card. Dominating possession at 66% to 34%, Utrecht asserted control as the stronger team, converting second-half pressure into a clean-sheet win. The result featured a significant 44.6% structural deviation favoring the hosts, while efficiency stayed in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, though xG data absence prevents deeper chance quality insights. The red card distortion markedly altered dynamics post-interval, enabling Utrecht's clinical edge. NAC Breda struggled to respond, underscoring disciplinary costs in a lopsided affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 44.6% structural deviation favoring FC Utrecht.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed true for FC Utrecht win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Red card to NAC Breda created substantial event impact.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Bos

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. de Nas

1st Assistant

D. Frijn

2nd Assistant

T. Hardeman

4th Official

FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
VS
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.65
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior Rank: 58 L
Telstar Rank: 61 W
PSV Rank: 86 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ajax Rank: 75 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 D
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Utrecht
55.35%
Draw
23.38%
Away NAC Breda
21.27%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Utrecht
-41.13%
Draw
+20.05%
NAC Breda
+21.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.13
54.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Power Score
71.13
54.29
League Position
7
17
Global Rank
180
662

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Utrecht — Opponent-weighted form score
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Utrecht NAC Breda

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Utrecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

NAC Breda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Utrecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NAC Breda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.58
31.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.91
47.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Utrecht +1.65 Efficiency Index
vs
NAC Breda -1.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Utrecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NAC Breda
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Utrecht NAC Breda
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Utrecht NAC Breda
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Utrecht
vs
NAC Breda
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Utrecht NAC Breda
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Utrecht 0.41
NAC Breda 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Utrecht NAC Breda
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Utrecht 0.00
NAC Breda 0.03
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UTR had peak pressure around 92'.
  • UTR started the game with stronger pressure.
UTR Pressure NAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UTR reached the top pressure at 92' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Utrecht UTR Home
27 matches
NAC Breda NAC Away
Match Record
12
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
12
Goals
47
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
47
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Barkas
Greece
1 V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
Substitution
Denmark
23 N. Vesterlund
M. van der Hoorn
Netherlands
3 M. van der Hoorn
M. Eerdhuijzen
Substitution
Netherlands
44 M. Eerdhuijzen
S. Elkarouani
Morocco
16 S. Elkarouani
A. Engwanda
Belgium
27 A. Engwanda
D. de Wit
Substitution
Netherlands
20 D. de Wit
G. Zechiël
Netherlands
21 G. Zechiël
Ángel Galiot
Substitution
Spain
77 Ángel Galiot
A. Stepanov
Substitution
Ukraine
18 A. Stepanov
Y. Cathline
Substitution
France
10 Y. Cathline
Pitch
D. Bielica
Poland
99 D. Bielica
B. Kemper
Netherlands
4 B. Kemper
C. Leemans
Netherlands
8 C. Leemans
E. Mahmutovic
Substitution
Luxembourg
15 E. Mahmutovic
D. Odoi
Ghana
3 D. Odoi
K. Sowah
Substitution
Ghana
14 K. Sowah
M. Balard
Substitution
Australia
16 M. Balard
M. Nassoh
Netherlands
10 M. Nassoh
C. Valerius
Substitution
25 C. Valerius
André Ayew Pelé
Substitution
Ghana
24 André Ayew Pelé
L. Holtby
Substitution
Germany
90 L. Holtby

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Galgenwaard
Capacity :
23750
Attendance :
23034
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alex Bos
Roy de Nas
Don Frijn
Thomas Hardeman

Statistics

Possession
UTR
63%
NAC
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
19 Shots 7
68 Dangerous attacks 37
66 Possession 34
8 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Throwins 19
9 Goal Kicks 15
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
18 Dribble Attempts 9
9 Successful Dribbles 3
23 Successful Headers 21
100 Ball Safe 97
19 Goal Attempts 4
6 Substitutions 6
1 Assists 0

Attacking

116 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

504 Passes 262
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
36 Long Passes 63
88 Successful Passes Percentage 69
25 Successful Long Passes 23
24 Key Passes 7
444 Successful Passes 180

Defensive

1 Saves 9
10 Interceptions 4
11 Tackles 16
56 Duels Won 51

Build-up

16 Accurate Crosses 7
40 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

12 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn Defender
6.94
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Defender
7.38
23
Niklas Vesterlund
Niklas Vesterlund Defender
6.56
2
Siebe Horemans
Siebe Horemans
Defender74'
6.73
44
Mike Eerdhuijzen
Mike Eerdhuijzen Defender
6.44
11
Jesper Karlsson
Jesper Karlsson
Attacker46'
6.87
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Midfielder
6.95
9
David Min
David Min
Attacker89'
6.67
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Midfielder
7.07
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Midfielder
6.83
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Attacker
6.94
8
Can Bozdogan
Can Bozdogan
Midfielder90+4'
6.74
18
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov Attacker
6.76
91
Sébastien Haller
Sébastien Haller
Attacker65'
6.93
77
Ángel Alarcón
Ángel Alarcón Attacker
7.05
15
Adrian Blake
Adrian Blake
Attacker66'
6.66
Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Defender
6.65
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper Defender
6.92
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans Defender
6.78
15
Enes Mahmutovic
Enes Mahmutovic Defender
6.59
11
Raul Paula
Raul Paula
Midfielder90'
6.7
10
Mohamed Nassoh
Mohamed Nassoh Midfielder
6.94
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Midfielder
6.72
26
Pepijn Reulen
Pepijn Reulen
Attacker90+5'
6.58
16
Max Balard
Max Balard Midfielder
6.72
55
Brahim Ghalidi
Brahim Ghalidi
Attacker90'
6.77
25
Cherrion Valerius
Cherrion Valerius Midfielder
6.61
22
Rio Hillen
Rio Hillen
Defender72'
6.79
24
André Ayew
André Ayew Attacker
6.66
9
Moussa Soumano
Moussa Soumano
Attacker72'
6.8
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby Attacker
6.82
21
Jayden Candelaria
Jayden Candelaria
Defender81'
6.42

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adrian Blake
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+9'
90+5'
Event
Pepijn Reulen → Kamal Sowah
12th Substitution
Event
Can Bozdogan → Yoann Cathline
11th Substitution
90+4'
90'
Event
Brahim Ghalidi → Max Balard
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Raul Paula → Enes Mahmutovic
10th Substitution
Event
David Min → Dani de Wit
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Dani de Wit
Goal awarded
88'
Event
Dani de Wit
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
86'
82'
Event
Daniel Bielica
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Jayden Candelaria → Lewis Holtby
7th Substitution
Event
Siebe Horemans → Niklas Vesterlund
6th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Rio Hillen → Cherrion Valerius
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Moussa Soumano → André Ayew
5th Substitution
Event
Adrian Blake → Ángel Alarcón
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Sébastien Haller → Artem Stepanov
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Jesper Karlsson → Mike Eerdhuijzen
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Max Balard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Event
Mohamed Nassoh
Foul / 1st Redcard
34'
Event
Mohamed Nassoh
Card adjusted

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Pepijn Reulen replaces Kamal Sowah.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gjihai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raul Paula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Can Bozdogan replaces Yoann Cathline.
90
Update Update
Brahim Ghalidi comes on for Maximilien Balard.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Blake takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Raul Paula comes on for Enes Mahmutovic.
90
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Soumano attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rio Hillen attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Blake scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
David Mina replaces Dani De Wit.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Bielica receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Yoann Cathline takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Jayden Candelaria replaces Lewis Holtby.
78
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Siebe Horemans takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Yoann Cathline takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Substitution Substitution
Rio Hillen is substituted for Cherrion Valerius.
75
Update Update
Moussa Soumano replaces Andre Ayew.
75
Update Update
Siebe Horemans replaces Niklas Brondsted Vesterlund Nielsen.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gjivai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Niklas Brondsted Vesterlund Nielsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Update Update
Adrian Blake is on, and Angel Alarcon is off.
67
Attempt Attempt
Niklas Brondsted Vesterlund Nielsen takes a shot, but it's saved.
66
Update Update
Sebastien Haller is on, and Artem Stepanov is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Souffian El Karouani takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Souffian El Karouani takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Holtby takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Angel Alarcon attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Cherrion Valerius attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Andre Ayew takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Artem Stepanov takes a header, but it goes wide.
46
Update Update
Jesper Karlsson comes on for Mike Eerdhuijzen.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alonzo Engwanda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Souffian El Karouani takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Artem Stepanov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maximilien Balard receives a yellow card.
38
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Holtby takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Denis Odoi attempts a header but misses the shot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Angel Alarcon's left-footed shot is blocked.
35
Red Card Red Card Important
Mohamed Nassoh receives a red card.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mohamed Nassoh receives a yellow card.
28
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kamal Sowah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Mike Eerdhuijzen's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

FC Utrecht's 2-0 triumph over NAC Breda exemplified home dominance, with 66% possession and second-half strikes sealing the deal after NAC's red card. As the stronger side, Utrecht's execution aligned with market views and efficiency norms, despite a notable 44.6% structural deviation amplifying the margin. The red card distortion proved decisive, reshaping the contest post-halftime from stalemate to statement win. Lacking xG data limits nuance, yet Utrecht's control and conversion highlighted tactical maturity. NAC Breda paid dearly for the sending-off, exposing frailties. This outcome bolsters Utrecht's momentum while serving as a cautionary tale on discipline.

FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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