FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadion Galgenwaard Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
FC Utrecht UTR
2 Winner 0
Fortuna Sittard FOR
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
David Min - 65'
Dani de Wit - 39'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

FC Utrecht defeated Fortuna Sittard 2-0 with a 1-0 lead at halftime in a controlled performance that reflected their status as the stronger side. They held 58 percent possession and created an expected goals advantage of 2.34 to 0.68. The home side converted their opportunities efficiently while limiting the visitors to minimal threats throughout the contest. No red cards disrupted proceedings and the match remained balanced in terms of personnel. The outcome proved consistent with underlying metrics and showed only minimal deviation from pre-match projections. FC Utrecht maintained structure and discipline to secure the clean sheet victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent from expected patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's anticipated output.
  • xG alignment: The final 2-0 result aligned closely with the 1.66 expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: The outcome stayed aligned with pre-match market projections for the home side.
  • xG expectations: FC Utrecht met xG expectations by scoring two goals against 2.34 expected.
  • Event impact: Key events supported the home side without major interruptions to flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Oostrom

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. van Marrewijk

1st Assistant

Netherlands

R. van Rijn

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

A. Wolff

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
VS
Fortuna Sittard D. Buijs
D. Buijs
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ajax Rank: 77 W
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Excelsior Rank: 58 L
Telstar Rank: 64 W
PSV Rank: 87 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
PEC Zwolle Rank: 64 W
Feyenoord Rank: 76 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 L
NAC Breda Rank: 56 D
AZ Rank: 75 L
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Utrecht
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Fortuna Sittard
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.32
61.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
Power Score
72.32
61.06
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
149
440

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Utrecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Fortuna Sittard — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Utrecht Fortuna Sittard

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Utrecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fortuna Sittard

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Utrecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fortuna Sittard
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.78
36.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.43
35.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Utrecht -0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Fortuna Sittard +0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Utrecht
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Utrecht Fortuna Sittard
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Utrecht Fortuna Sittard
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Utrecht
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Utrecht Fortuna Sittard
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Utrecht 0.33
Fortuna Sittard 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Utrecht Fortuna Sittard
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Utrecht 0.00
Fortuna Sittard 0.04
FC Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UTR had peak pressure around 41'.
  • UTR started the game with stronger pressure.
UTR Pressure FOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UTR reached the top pressure at 41' (72.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Utrecht UTR Home
0 matches
Fortuna Sittard FOR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:00:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
V. Barkas
Greece
1 V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
Substitution
Denmark
23 N. Vesterlund
M. van der Hoorn
Netherlands
3 (C) M. van der Hoorn
M. Eerdhuijzen
Substitution
Netherlands
44 M. Eerdhuijzen
S. Elkarouani
Morocco
16 S. Elkarouani
A. Engwanda
Belgium
27 A. Engwanda
G. Zechiël
Netherlands
21 G. Zechiël
Y. Cathline
France
10 Y. Cathline
D. de Wit
Substitution
Netherlands
20 D. de Wit
J. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
11 J. Karlsson
S. Haller
Substitution
Ivory Coast
91 S. Haller
Pitch
M. Branderhorst
Netherlands
31 M. Branderhorst
P. Brittijn
Substitution
Netherlands
23 P. Brittijn
J. Hubner
Substitution
Netherlands
28 J. Hubner
S. van Ottele
Netherlands
6 S. van Ottele
J. Dahlhaus
Netherlands
8 J. Dahlhaus
L. Duijvestijn
Netherlands
70 L. Duijvestijn
Y. Oukili
Substitution
Morocco
5 Y. Oukili
N. Kasanwirjo
Netherlands
21 N. Kasanwirjo
K. Peterson
Sweden
7 K. Peterson
K. Sierhuis
Substitution
Netherlands
9 (C) K. Sierhuis
D. Limnios
Substitution
Greece
18 D. Limnios

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Galgenwaard
Capacity :
23750
Attendance :
22651
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ingmar Oostrom
Roan van Marrewijk
Rick van Rijn
Andy Wolff

Statistics

Possession
UTR
56%
FOR
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 46
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
10 Goal Kicks 8
12 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Headers 7
21 Throwins 10
7 Successful Dribbles 6
15 Goal Attempts 10
68 Ball Safe 66
1 Injuries 0
2 Assists 0

Attacking

90 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
43 Long Passes 55
23 Successful Long Passes 22
86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
421 Successful Passes 282
487 Passes 354
15 Key Passes 10

Defensive

35 Duels Won 37
9 Interceptions 14
14 Tackles 16
2 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
19 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

8 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ingmar Oostrom

Starting XI ▼

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
6.95
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn (C) Defender
6.95
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Defender
7.36
23
Niklas Vesterlund
Niklas Vesterlund Defender
6.96
2
Siebe Horemans
Siebe Horemans
Defender72'
6.59
44
Mike Eerdhuijzen
Mike Eerdhuijzen Defender
7.07
24
Nick Viergever
Nick Viergever
Defender64'
6.46
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Midfielder
6.83
11
Jesper Karlsson
Jesper Karlsson Midfielder
7.44
15
Adrian Blake
Adrian Blake
Attacker64'
6.51
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Midfielder
7.97
43
Rafik El Arguioui
Rafik El Arguioui
Midfielder82'
6.41
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Midfielder
8.95
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Midfielder
7.21
91
Sébastien Haller
Sébastien Haller Attacker
6.57
9
David Min
David Min
Attacker63'
7.29
Referee : Ingmar Oostrom

Starting XI ▼

31
Mattijs Branderhorst
Mattijs Branderhorst Goalkeeper
6.76
6
Syb van Ottele
Syb van Ottele Defender
7.22
23
Philip Brittijn
Philip Brittijn Defender
6.26
38
Tristan Schenkhuizen
Tristan Schenkhuizen
Midfielder79'
6.85
28
Justin Hubner
Justin Hubner Defender
6.26
12
Ivo Pinto
Ivo Pinto
Defender46'
6.73
5
Yassin Oukili
Yassin Oukili Midfielder
6.62
46
Moussa Gbemou
Moussa Gbemou
Midfielder79'
6.74
8
Jasper Dahlhaus
Jasper Dahlhaus Midfielder
6.65
21
Neraysho Kasanwirjo
Neraysho Kasanwirjo Midfielder
6.85
70
Lance Duijvestijn
Lance Duijvestijn Midfielder
6.75
7
Kristoffer Peterson
Kristoffer Peterson Attacker
6.39
9
Kaj Sierhuis
Kaj Sierhuis (C) Attacker
6.44
10
Alen Halilovic
Alen Halilovic
Midfielder79'
6.66
18
Dimitrios Limnios
Dimitrios Limnios Attacker
6.47
52
Mohamed Ihattaren
Mohamed Ihattaren
Midfielder46'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Rafik El Arguioui → Dani de Wit
10th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Alen Halilovic → Kaj Sierhuis
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Tristan Schenkhuizen → Philip Brittijn
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Moussa Gbemou → Yassin Oukili
7th Substitution
Event
Siebe Horemans → Niklas Vesterlund
6th Substitution
72'
Event
David Min
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
Adrian Blake → Jesper Karlsson
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Nick Viergever → Mike Eerdhuijzen
5th Substitution
64'
Event
David Min → Sébastien Haller
3rd Substitution
63'
55'
Event
Yassin Oukili
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ivo Pinto → Justin Hubner
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Mohamed Ihattaren → Dimitrios Limnios
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dani de Wit
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mohammed Amine Ihattaren takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alen Halilovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Lance Duijvestijn takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Syb Van Ottele takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Rafik el Arguioui replaces Dani De Wit.
79
Update Update
Alen Halilovic comes on for Kaj Sierhuis.
79
Update Update
Tristan Schenkhuizen is on, and Philip Brittijn is off.
79
Update Update
Moussa Gbemou is on, and Yassin Oukili is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Update Update
Siebe Horemans comes on for Niklas Brondsted Vesterlund Nielsen.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ivo Daniel Ferreira Mendonca Pinto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Ivo Daniel Ferreira Mendonca Pinto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Lance Duijvestijn takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! David Mina scores, making it 2-0.
65
Attempt Attempt
David Mina takes a right-footed shot and scores.
64
Substitution Substitution
Adrian Blake is substituted for Jesper Karlsson.
64
Update Update
Nick Viergever is on, and Mike Eerdhuijzen is off.
63
Update Update
David Mina replaces Sebastien Haller.
58
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yassin Oukili receives a yellow card.
54
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Yassin Oukili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Ivo Daniel Ferreira Mendonca Pinto replaces Justin Hubner.
46
Update Update
Mohammed Amine Ihattaren comes on for Dimitrios Limnios.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlsson's right-footed shot is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Dani De Wit scores with a right-footed shot.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dani De Wit scores to make it 1-0.
39
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel's left-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Mike Eerdhuijzen attempts a header but misses the shot.
38
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Neraysho Kasanwirjo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Yassin Oukili takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Syb Van Ottele takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Dani De Wit takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Souffian El Karouani takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Dani De Wit takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Lance Duijvestijn takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Niklas Brondsted Vesterlund Nielsen attempts a header but misses the shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Sebastien Haller's header is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Yoann Cathline's right-footed shot is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Yoann Cathline takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Gjivai Zechiel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ingmar Oostrom.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: FC Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard. Structural assessment: FC Utrecht exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.