FC Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg
WOB
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
VfL Wolfsburg pulled off a notable upset with a 2-1 victory over pre-match stronger side FC Union Berlin at home. Union controlled possession at 54% to Wolfsburg's 46%, yet struggled to break through decisively. Wolfsburg took a 1-0 halftime lead and added a crucial second-half goal to clinch the win, defying expectations. No red cards disrupted play, and the match flowed without major second-half tactical shifts. This result highlights Wolfsburg's efficiency in front of goal despite less ball control, while Union's dominance yielded only one score. The away triumph marks a significant structural deviation, underscoring the visitors' resilience and clinical edge in a tightly contested Bundesliga encounter.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Significant 69.5% deviation benefited VfL Wolfsburg.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
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xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
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Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-match market view.
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xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
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Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
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Red card distortion: No red cards present, avoiding any distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
F. Badstübner
Other match officials
M. Schüller
1st Assistant
P. Hüwe
2nd Assistant
M. Bacher
4th Official
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
Movement
Changes since opening
FC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
Team Power Ranking
i
17.54
11.61
FC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Union Berlin
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- FCU had peak pressure around 98'.
- FCU started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:30+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


FC Union Berlin
vs
RB Leipzig
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Fri, 24 Apr - 6:30 PM
Venue: Red Bull Arena


VfL Wolfsburg
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Volkswagen Arena
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
FC Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Author
Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.


Match Commentary