FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadion An der Alten Försterei Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin FCU
2 – 2
FC Köln KOE
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Livan Burcu - 89'
Tom Rothe - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Said El Mala - 61'
Marius Bülter - 33'

CONTEXT

FC Union Berlin and FC Köln delivered a pulsating 2-2 draw at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The visitors struck first, leading 0-1 at halftime after a first-half breakthrough. FC Union Berlin, deemed the stronger side, asserted dominance with 58% possession against Köln's 42%. The second half saw Union mount a spirited comeback, equalizing early before surging ahead. However, Köln's resilience shone through with a late leveler to share the spoils. No red cards marred the contest, keeping it a pure test of skill and stamina. Union's control failed to translate fully into victory, underscoring finishing woes despite territorial edge. Köln's counterattacking threat proved decisive. This outcome reflects a balanced affair, with both teams showing character in a hard-fought Bundesliga encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed moderate structural deviation of 8.9% favoring FC Union Berlin.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Draw result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events significantly impacted match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Schlager

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Waschitzki

1st Assistant

T. Fritsch

2nd Assistant

R. Braun

4th Official

FC Union Berlin M. Eta
M. Eta
VS
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.87
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 73 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 88 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Union Berlin
4.47%
Draw
91.07%
Away FC Köln
4.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.42
62.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Union Berlin
FC Köln
Power Score
73.42
62.8
League Position
12
13
Global Rank
139
107

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Union Berlin FC Köln

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Union Berlin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Köln

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.36
22.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.62
28.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Union Berlin +0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Köln -0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
FC Köln
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Union Berlin FC Köln
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Union Berlin FC Köln
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
FC Köln
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Union Berlin
vs
FC Köln
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Union Berlin FC Köln
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Union Berlin 0.19
FC Köln 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Union Berlin FC Köln
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Union Berlin 0.07
FC Köln 0.03
FC Union Berlin
FC Köln
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCU had peak pressure around 32'.
  • FCU started the game with stronger pressure.
FCU Pressure KOE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCU reached the top pressure at 32' (83.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Union Berlin FCU Home
11 matches
FC Köln KOE Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
8
Goals
17
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
17
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Klaus
Germany
25 C. Klaus
D. Doekhi
Netherlands
5 D. Doekhi
D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
Portugal
4 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
S. Nsoki
Substitution
France
34 S. Nsoki
J. Juranović
Substitution
Croatia
18 J. Juranović
A. Schafer
Substitution
Hungary
13 A. Schafer
R. Khedira
Substitution
Germany
8 R. Khedira
A. Kemlein
Germany
6 A. Kemlein
T. Rothe
Germany
15 T. Rothe
O. Burke
Scotland
7 O. Burke
I. Ansah
Substitution
Germany
10 I. Ansah
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 M. Schwäbe
K. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
32 K. Hansen
C. Özkacar
Türkiye
39 C. Özkacar
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
S. Sebulonsen
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
T. Krauß
Germany
5 T. Krauß
M. Bülter
Substitution
Germany
30 M. Bülter
J. Kamiński
Substitution
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
G. Waldschmidt
Substitution
Germany
7 G. Waldschmidt
S. El Mala
Substitution
Germany
13 S. El Mala

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Capacity :
22012
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sven Waschitzki
Tobias Fritsch
Robin Braun
Daniel Schlager

Statistics

Possession
FCU
58%
KOE
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
13 Shots 8
69 Dangerous attacks 30
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 3
29 Throwins 25
12 Goal Kicks 11
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
31 Successful Headers 25
2 Injuries 3
1 Assists 2
89 Ball Safe 78
8 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

113 Attacks 64
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

461 Passes 334
353 Successful Passes 248
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
72 Long Passes 69
77 Successful Passes Percentage 74
8 Key Passes 7
30 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

1 Interceptions 7
15 Tackles 14
2 Saves 1
63 Duels Won 49

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Schlager

Starting XI ▼

25
Carl Klaus
Carl Klaus Goalkeeper
7.15
4
Diogo Leite
Diogo Leite Defender
6.76
5
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi Defender
6.89
34
Stanley Nsoki
Stanley Nsoki Defender
6.61
21
Tim Skarke
Tim Skarke
Midfielder67'
6.57
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein Midfielder
6.67
8
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Midfielder
6.71
33
Alex Král
Alex Král
Midfielder88'
6.55
13
András Schäfer
András Schäfer Midfielder
6.61
9
Livan Burcu
Livan Burcu
Attacker58'
6.6
15
Tom Rothe
Tom Rothe Midfielder
6.52
18
Josip Juranovic
Josip Juranovic Midfielder
6.8
28
Christopher Trimmel
Christopher Trimmel
Defender58'
6.79
7
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke Attacker
6.72
10
Ilyas Ansah
Ilyas Ansah Attacker
6.58
23
Andrej Ilic
Andrej Ilic
Attacker58'
6.87
Referee : Daniel Schlager

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.89
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
6.69
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
6.54
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Defender
6.72
2
Joël Schmied
Joël Schmied
Defender80'
6.49
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.69
5
Tom Krauß
Tom Krauß Midfielder
6.84
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
6.87
7
Luca Waldschmidt
Luca Waldschmidt Midfielder
6.86
27
Felipe Chavez
Felipe Chavez
Midfielder62'
6.57
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
7.09
37
Linton Maina
Linton Maina
Midfielder72'
6.71
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter Midfielder
6.87
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann
Midfielder71'
6.71
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
6.78
38
Youssoupha Niang
Youssoupha Niang
Attacker72'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Livan Burcu
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Livan Burcu
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Alex Král → Rani Khedira
10th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Marvin Schwäbe
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Joël Schmied → Kristoffer Lund
9th Substitution
Event
Tom Rothe
Header / 3rd Goal
73'
72'
Event
Linton Maina → Jakub Kamiński
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Youssoupha Niang → Said El Mala
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Jan Thielmann → Marius Bülter
6th Substitution
Event
Tim Skarke → Stanley Nsoki
5th Substitution
67'
62'
Event
Felipe Chavez → Luca Waldschmidt
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Said El Mala
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Andrej Ilic → Ilyas Ansah
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Livan Burcu → András Schäfer
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Christopher Trimmel  → Josip Juranovic
3rd Substitution
58'
55'
Event
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Diogo Leite
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
33'
Event
Marius Bülter
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Eric Martel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Burke takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Soaas Sebulonsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Livan Burcu receives a yellow card.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marvin Schwabe receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Livan Burcu scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Update Update
Alex Kral comes on for Khedira Rani.
85
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Burke takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Linton Maina's left-footed shot is saved.
80
Update Update
Joel Schmied is on, and Kristoffer Lund Hansen is off.
79
Update Update
Andrej Ilic attempts a header but misses the target.
73
Update Update
Goal! Tom Rothe scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Christopher Trimmel.
73
Attempt Attempt
Tom Rothe takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
73
Attempt Attempt
Tom Rothe takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
72
Update Update
Linton Maina comes on for Jakub Kaminski.
72
Update Update
Youssoupha Niang is on, and Said El Mala is off.
71
Update Update
Jan Thielmann replaces Marius Bulter.
67
Substitution Substitution
Tim Skarke is substituted for Stanley NSoki.
62
Update Update
Felipe Chavez replaces Luca Waldschmidt.
61
Update Update
Goal! Said El Mala scores, making it 0-2, assisted by Kristoffer Lund Hansen.
61
Attempt Attempt
Said El Mala scores with a left-footed shot.
58
Update Update
Livan Burcu comes on for Andras Schafer.
58
Substitution Substitution
Andrej Ilic is substituted for Ilyas Ansah.
58
Update Update
Christopher Trimmel is on, and Josip Juranovic is off.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Burke takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kaminski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Cenk Ozkacar takes a header shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Ansah takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Leite receives a yellow card.
33
Attempt Attempt
Marius Bulter scores with a right-footed shot.
33
Update Update
Goal! Marius Bulter scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Luca Waldschmidt.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eric Martel receives a yellow card.
28
Attempt Attempt
Khedira Rani's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Marius Bulter scores with a right-footed shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Tom Rothe attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Aljoscha Kemlein takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Said El Mala takes a right-footed shot, but it misses.
13
Update Update
Andras Schafer's header is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Aljoscha Kemlein takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw encapsulated FC Union Berlin's dominance in possession and comeback grit against FC Köln's tenacity. Trailing 0-1 at halftime, Union equalized and led before conceding late, highlighting conversion issues despite 58% ball control. As the stronger team, they earned a point but missed a home win. Köln's fighting spirit secured parity. With no red cards, the game stayed competitive. Moderate structural deviation favored hosts, efficiencies aligned, and market views matched the stalemate. Lacking xG, chance quality assessment is limited, yet the scoreline mirrors equilibrium. Both depart with momentum, Union focusing on ruthlessness ahead.

FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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