FC Twente vs FC Utrecht Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
De Grolsch Veste Sun, 15 Mar - 11:15 AM
Eredivisie
FC Twente TWE
0 Winner 2
FC Utrecht UTR
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 11:15 AM
|
Goal
Ángel Alarcón - 66'
Artem Stepanov - 32'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Twente 0–2 FC Utrecht. The result saw FC Utrecht take the points. FC Utrecht showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Utrecht showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Nagtegaal

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. de Nas

1st Assistant

S. Shukrula

4th Official

H. Kucukerbir

2nd Assistant

FC Twente J. van den Brom
J. van den Brom
VS
FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 64 W
Feyenoord Rank: 76 W
FC Groningen Rank: 64 W
Telstar Rank: 59 D
SC Heerenveen Rank: 67 W
NAC Breda Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 73 W
Feyenoord Rank: 76 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 67 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 69 L
FC Volendam Rank: 61 L
PSV Rank: 88 L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 11 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Twente
57.37%
Draw
22.54%
Away FC Utrecht
20.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.1
70.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
Power Score
74.1
70.71
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
108
164

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Twente — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Utrecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Twente FC Utrecht

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Twente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Utrecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Twente ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Utrecht
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.35
31.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.18
29.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Twente -0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Utrecht +0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Twente
vs
FC Utrecht
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Twente FC Utrecht
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Twente FC Utrecht
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Twente TWE Home
11 matches
FC Utrecht UTR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
11
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:50:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Unnerstall
Germany
1 L. Unnerstall
B. van Rooij
Netherlands
28 (C) B. van Rooij
S. Lemkin
Israel
23 S. Lemkin
R. Nijstad
Substitution
Netherlands
43 R. Nijstad
M. Rots
Netherlands
39 M. Rots
K. Hlynsson
Substitution
Iceland
14 K. Hlynsson
R. Zerrouki
Substitution
Algeria
6 R. Zerrouki
T. van den Belt
Substitution
Netherlands
20 T. van den Belt
D. Rots
Netherlands
11 D. Rots
S. Lammers
Netherlands
10 S. Lammers
M. Pjaca
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Pjaca
Pitch
V. Barkas
Greece
1 V. Barkas
S. Elkarouani
Morocco
16 S. Elkarouani
M. van der Hoorn
Netherlands
3 (C) M. van der Hoorn
M. Didden
Belgium
40 M. Didden
N. Vesterlund
Denmark
23 N. Vesterlund
G. Zechiël
Substitution
Netherlands
21 G. Zechiël
A. Engwanda
Belgium
27 A. Engwanda
Y. Cathline
Substitution
France
10 Y. Cathline
D. de Wit
Netherlands
20 D. de Wit
Ángel Galiot
Substitution
Spain
77 Ángel Galiot
A. Stepanov
Substitution
Ukraine
18 A. Stepanov

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 11:15 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium :
De Grolsch Veste
Capacity :
30205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marc Nagtegaal
Roy de Nas
Shona Shukrula
Halis Murat Kucukerbir

Statistics

Possession
TWE
57%
UTR
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
16 Shots 10
44 Dangerous attacks 37
62 Possession 38
4 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
14 Dribble Attempts 18
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
6 Successful Dribbles 11
17 Throwins 20
19 Successful Headers 18
11 Goal Attempts 8
4 Goal Kicks 11
92 Ball Safe 101
0 Injuries 2
0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

115 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

547 Passes 341
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
446 Successful Passes 238
60 Long Passes 81
25 Successful Long Passes 34
82 Successful Passes Percentage 70
11 Key Passes 6

Defensive

9 Interceptions 15
16 Tackles 16
6 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

1
Lars Unnerstall
Lars Unnerstall Goalkeeper
7.88
23
Stav Lemkin
Stav Lemkin Defender
7.14
28
Bart van Rooij
Bart van Rooij (C) Defender
6.82
39
Mats Rots
Mats Rots Defender
6.29
43
Ruud Nijstad
Ruud Nijstad Defender
7.06
3
Robin Pröpper
Robin Pröpper
Defender63'
6.22
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki Midfielder
6.95
42
Daouda Weidmann
Daouda Weidmann
Midfielder84'
6.74
14
Kristian Hlynsson
Kristian Hlynsson Midfielder
6.83
25
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Attacker84'
6.5
20
Thomas van den Belt
Thomas van den Belt Midfielder
6.72
32
Arno Verschueren
Arno Verschueren
Midfielder62'
6.6
7
Marko Pjaca
Marko Pjaca Attacker
6.6
9
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Attacker62'
6.54
10
Sam Lammers
Sam Lammers Attacker
6.85
11
Daan Rots
Daan Rots Attacker
6.72
Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
7.59
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn (C) Defender
7.28
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Defender
6.97
23
Niklas Vesterlund
Niklas Vesterlund Defender
6.69
40
Matisse Didden
Matisse Didden Defender
7.78
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Midfielder
6.65
11
Jesper Karlsson
Jesper Karlsson
Attacker69'
6.64
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Midfielder
6.95
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Midfielder
6.98
24
Nick Viergever
Nick Viergever
Defender88'
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Midfielder
6.74
77
Ángel Alarcón
Ángel Alarcón Midfielder
7.94
15
Adrian Blake
Adrian Blake
Attacker88'
18
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov Attacker
7.4
9
David Min
David Min
Attacker80'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Vasilios Barkas
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Adrian Blake → Ángel Alarcón
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Nick Viergever → Gjivai Zechiël
9th Substitution
Event
Daouda Weidmann → Ramiz Zerrouki
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink → Kristian Hlynsson
6th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
David Min → Artem Stepanov
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Jesper Karlsson → Yoann Cathline
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Ángel Alarcón
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Robin Pröpper → Ruud Nijstad
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Arno Verschueren → Thomas van den Belt
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Ricky van Wolfswinkel → Marko Pjaca
2nd Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Gjivai Zechiël
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Artem Stepanov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Thomas van den Belt
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
18'
Event
Dani de Wit
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Daouda Weidmann from FC Twente fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: FC Twente 0, FC Utrecht 2.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed to the left. The assist came from David Min.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Stav Lemkin from FC Twente attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vasilios Barkas from FC Utrecht has been shown a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink from FC Twente attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Adrian Blake replaces Ángel Alarcón.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Nick Viergever replaces Gjivai Zechiël.
85
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Arno Verschueren from FC Twente attempts a header from within the six-yard box, but Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht makes a fantastic save, catching the ball in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Daouda Weidmann, who delivered a precise cross.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Twente after a defensive play by Niklas Vesterlund.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Twente: Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink comes on to replace Kristian Hlynsson.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Twente: Daouda Weidmann replaces Ramiz Zerrouki.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
83
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Mike van der Hoorn from FC Utrecht.
82
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Ramiz Zerrouki from FC Twente attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Mats Rots.
81
Update Update
Ricky van Wolfswinkel from FC Twente strikes the crossbar with a right-footed effort from the middle of the penalty area.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: David Min comes on to replace Artem Stepanov.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ramiz Zerrouki of FC Twente attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Stav Lemkin.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Twente after Souffian El Karouani allowed the ball to go out.
72
Update Update
Ricky van Wolfswinkel from FC Twente earned a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
71
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Sam Lammers from FC Twente took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Daan Rots from FC Twente took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Ricky van Wolfswinkel.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Jesper Karlsson replaces Yoann Cathline.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Twente 0, FC Utrecht 2. Ángel Alarcón scores for FC Utrecht with a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Gjivai Zechiël.
64
Update Update
Niklas Vesterlund from FC Utrecht was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
64
Update Update
Arno Verschueren from FC Twente committed a foul.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Twente: Robin Pröpper comes on to replace Ruud Nijstad.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Twente: Ricky van Wolfswinkel comes on to replace Marko Pjaca.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Twente: Arno Verschueren replaces Thomas van den Belt.
62
Update Update
Kristian Hlynsson from FC Twente committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
61
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Sam Lammers from FC Twente attempted a header from close range but couldn't convert.
59
Update Update
Offside call against FC Utrecht. Artem Stepanov is caught in an offside position.
59
Update Update
Ángel Alarcón from FC Utrecht has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Mats Rots from FC Twente committed a foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Ruud Nijstad from FC Twente takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht makes a great save, diving to his right. The assist came from Thomas van den Belt, who set him up with a header.
57
Update Update
GJivai Zechiël from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gjavai Zechiël of FC Utrecht has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
57
Update Update
Mats Rots from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Utrecht after Stav Lemkin allowed the ball to go out of play.
51
Update Update
Kristian Hlynsson from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Utrecht after Lars Unnerstall allowed the ball to go out.
50
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from FC Utrecht. Gjivai Zechiël takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by Lars Unnerstall, the goalkeeper for FC Twente, who makes the save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Yoann Cathline.
49
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity for FC Utrecht as Artem Stepanov takes a left-footed shot from over 35 yards out.
48
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Utrecht after a deflection off Bart van Rooij.
47
Update Update
Stav Lemkin from FC Twente committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
46
Update Update
Daan Rots from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
46
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with FC Twente trailing FC Utrecht by a score of 0 to 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with FC Twente trailing 0-1 against FC Utrecht.
43
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds. Thomas van den Belt from FC Twente takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Vasilios Barkas from FC Utrecht makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Kristian Hlynsson.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Twente after Matisse Didden allowed the ball to go out.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Twente after Souffian El Karouani allowed the ball to go out.
40
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Kristian Hlynsson from FC Twente fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Sam Lammers.
40
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ruud Nijstad from FC Twente attempts a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
39
Update Update
Artem Stepanov from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Ruud Nijstad from FC Twente earned a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Kristian Hlynsson from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play is underway. Matisse Didden from FC Utrecht takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Lars Unnerstall, the goalkeeper for FC Twente, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
35
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Another offensive move unfolds. Mike van der Hoorn from FC Utrecht attempts a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but goalkeeper Lars Unnerstall of FC Twente makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Ángel Alarcón, who delivered a cross.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Utrecht after Bart van Rooij allowed the ball to go out.
32
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Ángel Alarcón from FC Utrecht takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Lars Unnerstall, the goalkeeper for FC Twente, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Dani de Wit.
32
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sam Lammers from FC Twente attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Twente 0, FC Utrecht 1. Artem Stepanov from FC Utrecht scores with a right-footed shot from close range, sending the ball into the top center of the net.
29
Update Update
Stav Lemkin from FC Twente was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
29
Update Update
Stav Lemkin from FC Twente was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
25
Update Update
Niklas Vesterlund from FC Utrecht has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Niklas Vesterlund from FC Utrecht has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thomas van den Belt of FC Twente has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
22
Update Update
Sam Lammers from FC Twente committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Alonzo Engwanda from FC Utrecht earned a free kick in an offensive position.
18
Update Update
Ramiz Zerrouki from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Kristian Hlynsson from FC Twente has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
18
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Ramiz Zerrouki from FC Twente earned a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Daan Rots from FC Twente attempts a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Thomas van den Belt.
15
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Utrecht after Daan Rots allowed the ball to go out.
15
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
14
Update Update
Souffian El Karouani from FC Utrecht earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
14
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Souffian El Karouani from FC Utrecht.
14
Update Update
Daan Rots from FC Twente committed a foul.
13
Update Update
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht heads the ball from the left side of the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped by Lars Unnerstall, the goalkeeper for FC Twente, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
11
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Artem Stepanov from FC Utrecht heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Lars Unnerstall of FC Twente makes a fantastic save, diving to the top right corner. The assist came from Souffian El Karouani, who delivered a precise cross.
8
Update Update
Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Utrecht exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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