FC Midtjylland vs Viborg FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
MCH Arena Mon, 4 May - 5:00 PM
Superliga
FC Midtjylland FCM
3 – 3
Viborg FF Viborg FF
Full Time Mon, 4 May 5:00 PM
Round 8 Championship Round
Martin Erlić - 80'
Pedro Bravo - 45+2'
Darío Osorio - 36'
Goal
|
Goal
Dorian Hanza - 89'
Asker Beck - 45', 33'

CONTEXT

FC Midtjylland and Viborg FF delivered a pulsating 3-3 draw in a high-octane Danish Superliga clash, with both sides trading blows from the outset. The first half exploded into life, ending level at 2-2 as Midtjylland's attacking flair met Viborg's counterattacking menace head-on. Possession favored the home side at 57% to 43%, yet Viborg's clinical finishing kept them in contention throughout. Midtjylland, regarded as the stronger team, pushed hard for a winner but found Viborg's defense resilient, conceding late drama that saw the points shared. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing continuous end-to-end action. This result marked a significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations, where Midtjylland held clear dominance prospects. Efficiency stayed in line with typical patterns, but the deadlock highlighted Viborg's ability to punch above their weight. The even halftime score set the tone for a second half of relentless pressure and opportunistic strikes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 3-3 draw represented a significant 79.2% structural deviation from FC Midtjylland's favored status.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with established patterns during the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market projections favoring FC Midtjylland.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation in this encounter.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered the match's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the game's structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Kehlet

Denmark 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Risum

1st Assistant

Denmark

L. Hummelgaard

2nd Assistant

Denmark

M. Kristoffersen

4th Official

Denmark

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.96
Yellow cards / match 3.09
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.22
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Viborg FF Nickolai Lund
Nickolai Lund
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 70 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 60 W
AGF Rank: 70 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 64 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 61 D
Viborg FF Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nordsjælland Rank: 67 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 L
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
AGF Rank: 71 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 11 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Midtjylland
62.88%
Draw
20.82%
Away Viborg FF
16.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Midtjylland
+58.4%
Draw
-71.45%
Viborg FF
+13.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.33
64.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Viborg FF
Power Score
79.33
64.88
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
62
333

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Viborg FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Viborg FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Viborg FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Viborg FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.19
26.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.63
27.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Viborg FF -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Viborg FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Viborg FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Viborg FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Viborg FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Viborg FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Midtjylland
vs
Viborg FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Midtjylland Viborg FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Midtjylland 0.26
Viborg FF 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Viborg FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Midtjylland 0.10
Viborg FF 0.06
FC Midtjylland
Viborg FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCM had peak pressure around 17'.
  • FCM started the game with stronger pressure.
FCM Pressure Viborg FF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCM reached the top pressure at 17' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Midtjylland FCM Home
29 matches
Viborg FF Viborg FF Away
Match Record
15
Wins
3
11
Draws
11
3
Losses
15
Goals
51
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
51
+25
Goal Difference
-25
Expected Goals
1.46
xG
1.07
1.07
xGA
1.46

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
E. Olafsson
Iceland
16 E. Olafsson
H. Lee
South Korea
3 H. Lee
M. Erlić
Croatia
6 M. Erlić
O. Diao
Substitution
Senegal
4 O. Diao
D. Osorio Osorio
Substitution
Chile
11 D. Osorio Osorio
P. Billing
Denmark
8 P. Billing
P. Bravo Landazuri
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
V. Jensen
Denmark
55 V. Jensen
D. Castillo
Substitution
Ecuador
21 D. Castillo
D. Simsir
Substitution
Denmark
58 D. Simsir
E. Chilufya
Substitution
Zambia
14 E. Chilufya
Pitch
L. Pedersen
Denmark
1 L. Pedersen
O. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
23 O. Kristensen
D. Anyembe
Kenya
24 D. Anyembe
L. Kirkegaard
Denmark
32 L. Kirkegaard
H. Bidstrup
Denmark
26 H. Bidstrup
T. Jørgensen
Denmark
10 T. Jørgensen
M. Hoedemakers
Substitution
Netherlands
4 M. Hoedemakers
A. Bech
Substitution
Denmark
8 A. Bech
S. Jalal Karchoud
Denmark
29 S. Jalal Karchoud
D. Hanza Meha
Equatorial Guinea
19 D. Hanza Meha
C. Ngos Nouck Horneman
Substitution
Denmark
11 C. Ngos Nouck Horneman

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium :
MCH Arena
Capacity :
12152
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rene Risum
Lars Hummelgaard
Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen
Jakob Kehlet

Statistics

Possession
FCM
57%
Viborg FF
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
50 Dangerous attacks 29
57 Possession 43
8 Corners 0
12 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 2
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 15
26 Throwins 22
3 Goal Kicks 12
63 Ball Safe 63
9 Goal Attempts 3
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

92 Attacks 90
1 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 70
322 Successful Passes 223
409 Passes 317
62 Long Passes 67
35 Successful Long Passes 19
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
11 Key Passes 6

Defensive

66 Duels Won 49
6 Interceptions 12
25 Tackles 17
3 Saves 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

17 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jakob Kehlet

Starting XI ▼

16
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6.85
4
Ousmane Diao
Ousmane Diao Defender
6.94
29
Paulinho
Paulinho
Defender87'
6.75
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić Defender
6.83
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing Midfielder
7.18
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
7.33
74
Júnior Brumado
Júnior Brumado
Attacker46'
6.94
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
6.72
55
Victor Bak
Victor Bak Midfielder
6.79
14
Edward Chilufya
Edward Chilufya Attacker
6.58
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho
Attacker60'
6.69
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo Attacker
6.96
43
Kevin Mbabu
Kevin Mbabu
Defender74'
6.62
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir Attacker
7.39
41
Mikel Gogorza
Mikel Gogorza
Attacker74'
6.74
Referee : Jakob Kehlet

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Lund
Lucas Lund Goalkeeper
6.91
23
Oliver Bundgaard
Oliver Bundgaard Defender
6.61
5
Zan Zaletel
Zan Zaletel
Defender67'
6.92
24
Daniel Anyembe
Daniel Anyembe Defender
6.74
26
Hjalte Bidstrup
Hjalte Bidstrup Defender
6.8
32
Lukas Kirkegaard
Lukas Kirkegaard Defender
7.09
4
Mees Hoedemakers
Mees Hoedemakers Midfielder
6.69
18
Jean Manuel Mbom
Jean Manuel Mbom
Defender75'
6.79
8
Asker Beck
Asker Beck Midfielder
2
6.62
36
Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen
Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen
Attacker87'
6.52
10
Thomas Jørgensen
Thomas Jørgensen Midfielder
7.34
29
Sami Jalal
Sami Jalal Midfielder
7.01
11
Charly Nouck
Charly Nouck Attacker
6.93
21
Bilal Brahimi
Bilal Brahimi
Midfielder74'
6.86
19
Dorian Hanza
Dorian Hanza Attacker
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Dorian Hanza
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Paulinho → Ousmane Diao
9th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen → Asker Beck
8th Substitution
Event
Martin Erlić
Header / 5th Goal
80'
75'
Event
Jean Manuel Mbom → Mees Hoedemakers
7th Substitution
Event
Kevin Mbabu → Denil Castillo
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Mikel Gogorza → Aral Şimşir
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Bilal Brahimi → Charly Nouck
4th Substitution
Event
Victor Bak
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
67'
Event
Zan Zaletel → Oliver Bundgaard
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Mees Hoedemakers
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gue-sung Cho → Edward Chilufya
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Júnior Brumado → Darío Osorio
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pedro Bravo
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
45+2'
45'
Event
Asker Beck
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Denil Castillo
Goal disallowed
41'
Event
Darío Osorio
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
33'
Event
Asker Beck
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Darío Osorio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Philip Billing
Goal disallowed
17'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Martin Erlic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cho Gue-sung takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Dorian Hanza scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Bilal Brahimi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Substitution Substitution
Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen is substituted off for Asker Beck.
87
Update Update
Paulo Victor da Silva, also known as Paulinho, comes on for Ousmane Diao.
86
Attempt Attempt
Asker Beck takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Martin Erlic takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
75
Update Update
Kevin Mbabu is on, and Denil Castillo is off.
75
Update Update
Kevin Mbabu is on, and Denil Castillo is off.
74
Update Update
Bilal Brahimi is on, and Charly Horneman is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Jorgensen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Jean-Manuel Mbom replaces Mees Hoedemakers.
70
Attempt Attempt
Charly Horneman takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Update Update
Zan Zaletel is on, and Oliver Bundgaard is off.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jose Francisco Dos Santos Junior attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Jorgensen's left-footed shot is saved.
60
Update Update
On comes Cho Gue-sung, off goes Edward Chilufya.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jose Francisco Dos Santos Junior's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Jose Francisco Dos Santos Junior comes on for Dario Esteban Osorio.
45
Attempt Attempt
Asker Beck takes a right-footed shot and scores.
45
Update Update
Goal! Pedro Bravo scores to make it 2-2, assisted by Aral Simsir.
45
Update Update
Goal! An own goal by Daniel Anyembe levels the score at 2-2.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Bravo scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aral Simsir's right-footed shot is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Denil Castillo scores with a right-footed shot.
40
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for Denil Castillo.
36
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio scores with a left-footed shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Asker Beck scores with a right-footed shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Aral Simsir takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Update Update
Phillip Billing scores with a header.
9
Attempt Attempt
Edward Chilufya takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Bundgaard's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

This 3-3 stalemate underscores Viborg FF's grit against a possession-dominant FC Midtjylland, who controlled 57% of the ball yet couldn't convert superiority into victory. The halftime 2-2 scoreline foreshadowed the chaos, with both teams showcasing sharp finishing amid open play. Midtjylland's failure to capitalize on their stronger billing exposes vulnerabilities, while Viborg's resilience delivers a vital point. Structurally, the result deviates sharply from expectations, yet efficiencies held steady without disruptive events. In a league demanding consistency, this draw serves as a reminder of football's unpredictability, boosting Viborg's morale and prompting Midtjylland to refine their edge.

FC Midtjylland vs Viborg FF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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