FC Midtjylland vs Brøndby IF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
MCH Arena Sun, 17 May - 4:00 PM
Superliga
FC Midtjylland FCM
2 Winner 3
Brøndby IF BIF
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:00 PM
Round 10 Championship Round
Mikel Gogorza - 23'
Valdemar Byskov - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Luis Binks - 90+3'
Sho Fukuda - 81'
Mayckel Lahdo - 66'

CONTEXT

FC Midtjylland hosted Brøndby IF in a match that concluded with a 2-3 scoreline. The home side led 2-0 at halftime after establishing an early advantage through efficient finishing. Brøndby IF mounted a second-half response to overturn the deficit and secure the victory. Possession favored FC Midtjylland at 55 percent against 45 percent for the visitors. Expected goals stood at 1.83 for the home team and 1.91 for the away side reflecting a closely contested underlying performance. No red cards were issued during the game. The stronger pre-match side ultimately fell short despite the halftime lead.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brøndby IF achieved a significant deviation from pre-match positioning to claim the win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with underlying performance metrics across both halves.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with xG values of 1.83 to 1.91.
  • Market alignment: The result showed no alignment with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations indicated a narrow edge for Brøndby IF despite lower possession.
  • Event impact: The second-half adjustments by Brøndby IF directly altered the match trajectory after trailing 2-0.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the game proceeded without any related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Tykgaard

Denmark 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Skytte

1st Assistant

Denmark

J. Bæk

2nd Assistant

Denmark

J. Rasmussen

4th Official

Denmark

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.27
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Brøndby IF S. Cooper
S. Cooper
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.69
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nordsjælland Rank: 67 D
Viborg FF Rank: 64 D
AGF Rank: 70 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 61 W
AGF Rank: 72 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 71 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 59 L
Viborg FF Rank: 63 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 61 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 78 L
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 17 - 28
28

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Midtjylland
42.54%
Draw
26.76%
Away Brøndby IF
30.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Midtjylland
+42.35%
Draw
+21.11%
Brøndby IF
-63.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.99
65.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Brøndby IF
Power Score
77.99
65.44
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
77
314

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Brøndby IF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brøndby IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brøndby IF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.55
31.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.00
36.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland +0.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Brøndby IF -0.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Brøndby IF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland
vs
Brøndby IF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC Midtjylland
Brøndby IF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Midtjylland
vs
Brøndby IF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Midtjylland 0.43
Brøndby IF 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Midtjylland 0.08
Brøndby IF 0.05
FC Midtjylland
Brøndby IF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCM had peak pressure around 28'.
  • FCM started the game with stronger pressure.
FCM Pressure BIF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCM reached the top pressure at 28' (96.37).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Midtjylland FCM Home
70 matches
Brøndby IF BIF Away
Match Record
25
Wins
28
17
Draws
17
28
Losses
25
Goals
99
Goals Scored
109
109
Goals Conceded
99
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:05:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Lössl
Denmark
1 J. Lössl
O. Diao
Substitution
Senegal
4 O. Diao
H. Lee
South Korea
3 H. Lee
M. Bech Sørensen
Denmark
22 (C) M. Bech Sørensen
A. Ndiaye
Substitution
34 A. Ndiaye
P. Billing
Denmark
8 P. Billing
P. Bravo Landazuri
Substitution
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
D. Castillo
Ecuador
21 D. Castillo
V. Byskov Andreasen
Denmark
20 V. Byskov Andreasen
M. Gogorza Krüger-Johnsen
Substitution
Denmark
41 M. Gogorza Krüger-Johnsen
K. Cho
Substitution
South Korea
10 K. Cho
Pitch
P. Pentz
Austria
1 P. Pentz
M. Divković
Croatia
24 M. Divković
L. Binks
England
4 L. Binks
R. Canut Pedersen
Substitution
37 R. Canut Pedersen
O. Villadsen
Denmark
2 O. Villadsen
B. Tahirovic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8 B. Tahirovic
B. Slisz
Poland
99 B. Slisz
N. Vallys
Denmark
7 (C) N. Vallys
M. Frøkjær-Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Frøkjær-Jensen
O. Sow
Substitution
France
22 O. Sow
J. Brøchner Ambæk
Substitution
38 J. Brøchner Ambæk

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
MCH Arena
Capacity :
12152
Attendance :
10687
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Tykgaard
Victor Skytte
Jonas Bæk
Jacob Rasmussen

Statistics

Possession
FCM
54%
BIF
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 5
4 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 39
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 21
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 21
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
8 Goal Kicks 7
26 Dribble Attempts 22
14 Successful Dribbles 12
1 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 5
13 Goal Attempts 10
97 Ball Safe 95

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
99 Attacks 71
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 80
14 Key Passes 10
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
386 Successful Passes 297
35 Successful Long Passes 22
459 Passes 372
67 Long Passes 68

Defensive

56 Duels Won 68
14 Tackles 20
10 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 6

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
14 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

21 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Michael Tykgaard

Starting XI ▼

1
Jonas Lössl
Jonas Lössl Goalkeeper
6.38
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6.83
4
Ousmane Diao
Ousmane Diao Defender
6.38
43
Kevin Mbabu
Kevin Mbabu
Defender86'
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen (C) Defender
6.45
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing Midfielder
6.62
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
6.89
29
Paulinho
Paulinho
Defender54'
6.02
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo Midfielder
6.48
34
Abdou Aziz Ndiaye
Abdou Aziz Ndiaye Midfielder
7.05
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio
Midfielder53'
6.53
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho Attacker
6.94
38
Julius Emefile
Julius Emefile
Attacker79'
6.27
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Attacker
8.38
41
Mikel Gogorza
Mikel Gogorza Attacker
7.97
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir
Midfielder54'
6.43
Referee : Michael Tykgaard

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Pentz
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Oliver Villadsen
Oliver Villadsen Defender
6.83
4
Luis Binks
Luis Binks Defender
7.42
24
Marko Divkovic
Marko Divkovic Defender
6.89
37
Raphael Canut Pedersen
Raphael Canut Pedersen Defender
6.34
5
Rasmus Lauritsen
Rasmus Lauritsen
Defender90+2'
7
Nicolai Vallys
Nicolai Vallys (C) Midfielder
7.18
8
Benjamin Tahirović
Benjamin Tahirović Midfielder
6.61
23
Mayckel Lahdo
Mayckel Lahdo
Attacker60'
8.2
22
Ousmane Sow
Ousmane Sow Midfielder
6.23
19
Sho Fukuda
Sho Fukuda
Attacker59'
7.41
29
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen Midfielder
6.77
36
Viggo Poulsen
Viggo Poulsen
Midfielder73'
6.68
99
Bartosz Slisz
Bartosz Slisz Midfielder
7.46
38
Jacob Ambaek
Jacob Ambaek Attacker
6.24
11
Filip Bundgaard
Filip Bundgaard
Attacker46'
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Luis Binks
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
90+2'
Event
Rasmus Lauritsen → Raphael Canut Pedersen
10th Substitution
Event
Denil Castillo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
89'
Event
Nicolai Vallys
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Mbabu → Ousmane Diao
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Sho Fukuda
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Julius Emefile
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Julius Emefile → Gue-sung Cho
8th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Viggo Poulsen → Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
7th Substitution
Event
Mads Bech Sørensen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
66'
Event
Mayckel Lahdo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
60'
Event
Mayckel Lahdo → Benjamin Tahirović
6th Substitution
59'
Event
Sho Fukuda → Ousmane Sow
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Benjamin Tahirović
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Aral Şimşir → Mikel Gogorza
4th Substitution
54'
Event
Paulinho → Pedro Bravo
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Darío Osorio → Abdou Aziz Ndiaye
2nd Substitution
53'
46'
Event
Filip Bundgaard → Jacob Ambaek
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mikel Gogorza
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Valdemar Byskov
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Aral Simsir's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Binks scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aral Simsir's header is saved.
90
Update Update
Rasmus Lauritsen comes on for Raphael Canut.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Binks scores with a left-footed shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Slisz takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Update Update
Kevin Mbabu comes on for Ousmane Diao.
85
Attempt Attempt
Sho Fukuda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Sho Fukuda's right-footed shot is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Sho Fukuda with his right foot results in a goal.
79
Update Update
Julius Emefile comes on for Cho Gue-sung.
73
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Victor da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Update Update
Viggo Poulsen is on, and Mads Frokjaer is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mayckel Lahdo scores with a right-footed shot.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mayckel Lahdo scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Bartosz Slisz.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mayckel Lahdo scores with a right-footed shot.
64
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Aral Simsir takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Update Update
Sho Fukuda replaces Ousmane Sow.
60
Update Update
Mayckel Lahdo replaces Benjamin Tahirovic.
59
Update Update
Cho Gue-sung attempts a header but misses the target.
53
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Slisz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Update Update
Dario Esteban Osorio replaces Abdou Ndiaye.
53
Substitution Substitution
Aral Simsir is substituted for Gogorza.
53
Update Update
Paulo Victor da Silva replaces Paulinho, and Pedro Bravo comes off.
48
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Slisz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Filip Bundgaard Kristensen replaces Jacob Ambaek.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gogorza takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Nicolai Vallys takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Nicolai Vallys takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Sow's header shot missed.
26
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Update Update
Han-beom Lee's header is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Cho Gue-sung's header is saved.
20
Update Update
Mads Bech Sorensen's header is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Billing takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Ambaek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen scores with a left-footed shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Cho Gue-sung takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Brøndby IF completed a full recovery from the 2-0 halftime deficit to win 2-3 on the road. The visitors generated slightly higher xG while capitalizing on second-half opportunities that FC Midtjylland could not match. Possession statistics favored the home side yet did not translate into sustained control after the interval. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain full tactical options throughout the ninety minutes. This outcome aligned with the close xG differential and highlighted Brøndby IF ability to adjust structure effectively. FC Midtjylland will review the loss of their early lead as a key area for future matches.

FC Midtjylland vs Brøndby IF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.