FC Köln vs Heidenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Heidenheim
HDH
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
FC Köln hosted Heidenheim in a Bundesliga clash that ended in a surprising 1-3 defeat for the home side. Köln controlled possession at 66% but struggled to convert, trailing 1-2 at halftime after Heidenheim struck twice early. The visitors added a third goal in the second half, sealing a statement win despite being underdogs on paper. Heidenheim's clinical finishing overcame Köln's pressure, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. This result marks a significant deviation from expectations, highlighting Heidenheim's efficiency on the counter. Köln's dominance in the ball failed to yield goals, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Heidenheim climbs the table with this road victory, while Köln faces questions after the halftime lead slipped away.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Heidenheim's 3-1 win showed a 71.1% significant structural deviation in their favor.
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Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
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xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
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Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
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xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
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Event impact: No major events like red cards impacted the match flow.
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Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
B. Dankert
Other match officials
E. Beitinger
1st Assistant
E. Müller
2nd Assistant
F. Bickel
4th Official
League averages
Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Movement
Changes since opening
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Team Power Ranking
i
62.18
73.79
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Köln
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- KOE had peak pressure around 84'.
- KOE started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:11+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


FC Köln
vs
FC Bayern München
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Venue: Allianz Arena


Heidenheim
vs
FSV Mainz 05
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Venue: Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
FC Köln vs Heidenheim preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Author
Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.

Match Commentary