FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
FC Köln hosted Bayer 04 Leverkusen in a Bundesliga encounter that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors. Leverkusen, the stronger team, struck first before halftime, leading 0-1 at the break, with FC Köln unable to equalize until late. Possession tilted slightly towards Leverkusen at 55% to Köln's 45%, reflecting their control in key moments. Despite Köln's efforts to mount a comeback in the second half, Leverkusen's defensive solidity and clinical finishing secured the points. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing a fair contest. The outcome underscores Leverkusen's superiority, with the final score aligning closely to pre-match structural expectations showing only minimal deviation. This win bolsters Leverkusen's position while highlighting Köln's challenges in converting possession into goals.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 4.4% favored Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
- Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
- Event impact: No notable event impacts or second-half adjustments occurred.
- Red card distortion: No red card distortion present as none were issued.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
R. Hartmann
Other match officials
C. Leicher
1st Assistant
T. Schultes
2nd Assistant
T. Gerach
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Köln
Bayer 04 LeverkusenMovement
Changes since opening
FC Köln
Bayer 04 LeverkusenTeam Power Ranking
i
16.66
31.66
FC Köln
Bayer 04 LeverkusenForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Köln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Köln ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Köln ⚠ Proxy
FC Köln Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Köln Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
FC Köln
FC Köln Bayer 04 Leverkusen


FC Köln Bayer 04 Leverkusen


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- KOE had peak pressure around 82'.
- KOE started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:58+00:00
STARTING XI
FC Köln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen























































General Information
Next Match

FC Köln
vs

FC Union Berlin
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs

RB Leipzig
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 4:30 PM
Venue: BayArena
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
FC KölnManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Bayer 04 LeverkusenManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Events
CONCLUSION
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary