FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Euroborg Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
FC Groningen GRO
2 Winner 1
NEC Nijmegen NEC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Tygo Land - 51'
Marco Rente - 45+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Darko Nejasmic - 76'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen. The result saw FC Groningen take the points. FC Groningen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Groningen's 2-1 win showed a significant structural deviation of 65.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match levels.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with outcome undetermined.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market view not aligned with FC Groningen's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Bos

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Brondijk

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

F. Ozinga

1st Assistant

Netherlands

M. Vos

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.36
Yellow cards / match 2.4
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.1
FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
VS
NEC Nijmegen D. Schreuder
D. Schreuder
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior Rank: 61 L
Feyenoord Rank: 74 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
Telstar Rank: 63 W
AZ Rank: 76 W
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Telstar Rank: 62 D
FC Twente Rank: 75 D
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Excelsior Rank: 62 W
SC Heerenveen Rank: 71 D
PSV Rank: 86 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 9 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Groningen
34.17%
Draw
25.1%
Away NEC Nijmegen
40.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Groningen
-60.55%
Draw
+20.01%
NEC Nijmegen
+40.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.7
73.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Power Score
66.7
73.43
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
284
139

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Groningen NEC Nijmegen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.60
27.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.10
25.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Groningen -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
NEC Nijmegen +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Groningen NEC Nijmegen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Groningen NEC Nijmegen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Groningen
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Groningen NEC Nijmegen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Groningen 0.31
NEC Nijmegen 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Groningen NEC Nijmegen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Groningen 0.03
NEC Nijmegen 0.06
FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEC had peak pressure around 93'.
  • GRO started the game with stronger pressure.
GRO Pressure NEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEC reached the top pressure at 93' (75.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Groningen GRO Home
31 matches
NEC Nijmegen NEC Away
Match Record
11
Wins
11
9
Draws
9
11
Losses
11
Goals
55
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
55
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
E. Vaessen
Netherlands
1 E. Vaessen
M. Rente
Germany
5 M. Rente
T. Blokzijl
Netherlands
3 T. Blokzijl
D. Janse
Netherlands
4 D. Janse
M. Peersman
Belgium
43 M. Peersman
T. de Jonge
Netherlands
8 T. de Jonge
T. Land
Substitution
Netherlands
18 T. Land
Y. Taha El Idrissi
Substitution
Morocco
10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
D. van der Werff
Substitution
17 D. van der Werff
J. Schreuders
Netherlands
14 J. Schreuders
T. van Bergen
Netherlands
26 T. van Bergen
Pitch
G. Crettaz
Argentina
1 G. Crettaz
D. Fonville
Netherlands
24 D. Fonville
B. Nuytinck
Substitution
Netherlands
17 B. Nuytinck
E. Dasa
Substitution
Israel
14 E. Dasa
N. Lebreton
France
20 N. Lebreton
P. Sandler
Substitution
Netherlands
3 P. Sandler
D. Nejašmić
Croatia
6 D. Nejašmić
S. Ouaissa
Netherlands
25 S. Ouaissa
K. Sano
Japan
23 K. Sano
T. Chery
Substitution
Suriname
10 T. Chery
B. Linssen
Substitution
Netherlands
30 B. Linssen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Euroborg
Capacity :
22525
Attendance :
22525
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Richard Brondijk
Alex Bos
Frans Ozinga
Martijn Vos

Statistics

Possession
GRO
50%
NEC
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 3
36 Dangerous attacks 31
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 2
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
11 Dribble Attempts 11
20 Throwins 20
16 Successful Headers 18
102 Ball Safe 100
9 Goal Attempts 7
5 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

79 Attacks 81
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

70 Long Passes 67
23 Successful Long Passes 22
256 Successful Passes 265
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
72 Successful Passes Percentage 73
357 Passes 361
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

45 Duels Won 52
9 Interceptions 6
12 Tackles 12
1 Saves 5

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

6 Offsides 4
16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

1
Etienne Vaessen
Etienne Vaessen Goalkeeper
3
Thijmen Blokzijl
Thijmen Blokzijl Defender
4
Dies Janse
Dies Janse Defender
5
Marco Rente
Marco Rente Defender
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
8
Tika de Jonge
Tika de Jonge Midfielder
10
Younes Taha
Younes Taha Midfielder
7
Travis Hernes
Travis Hernes
Midfielder69'
14
Jorg Schreuders
Jorg Schreuders Midfielder
17
David van der Werff
David van der Werff Midfielder
2
Wouter Prins
Wouter Prins
Defender69'
18
Tygo Land
Tygo Land Midfielder
34
Ryan Metu
Ryan Metu
Attacker82'
26
Thom van Bergen
Thom van Bergen Attacker
Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

1
Gonzalo Crettaz
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper
14
Eli Dasa
Eli Dasa Defender
11
Başar Önal
Başar Önal
Attacker60'
17
Bram Nuytinck
Bram Nuytinck Defender
9
Danilo
Danilo
Attacker60'
24
Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville Defender
3
Philippe Sandler
Philippe Sandler Midfielder
2
Brayann Pereira
Brayann Pereira
Defender60'
6
Darko Nejasmic
Darko Nejasmic Midfielder
20
Noé Lebreton
Noé Lebreton Midfielder
25
Sami Ouaissa
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder
10
Tjaronn Chery
Tjaronn Chery Attacker
18
Koki Ogawa
Koki Ogawa
Attacker71'
23
Kodai Sano
Kodai Sano Attacker
30
Bryan Linssen
Bryan Linssen Attacker
34
Youssef El Kachati
Youssef El Kachati
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marco Rente
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
84'
Event
Başar Önal
Goal disallowed
83'
Event
Başar Önal
Offside / Goal Disallowed
Event
Ryan Metu → Tygo Land
8th Substitution
82'
76'
Event
Darko Nejasmic
Header / 3rd Goal
71'
Event
Youssef El Kachati → Bryan Linssen
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Koki Ogawa → Tjaronn Chery
7th Substitution
Event
Travis Hernes → Younes Taha
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Wouter Prins → David van der Werff
5th Substitution
69'
66'
Event
Bryan Linssen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Brayann Pereira → Philippe Sandler
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Danilo → Bram Nuytinck
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Başar Önal → Eli Dasa
2nd Substitution
Event
Tygo Land
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Marco Rente
Header / 1st Goal
45+3'
Event
Tika de Jonge
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Youssef El Kachati takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Basar Onal's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Darko Nejasmic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thijmen Blokzijl receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jorg Schreuders takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Koki Ogawa's right-footed shot is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Brayann Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Basar Onal.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Basar Onal scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
82
Update Update
Ryan Metu is on, and Tygo Land is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Darko Nejasmic scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Sami Ouaissa.
76
Update Update
Darko Nejasmic scores with a header.
75
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Prins takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Koki Ogawa comes on for Tjaronn Chery.
71
Update Update
Youssef El Kachati comes on for Bryan Linssen.
69
Update Update
Travis Hernes is on, and Younes Taha is off.
69
Update Update
Wouter Prins comes on for David van der Werff.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bryan Linssen receives a yellow card.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jorg Schreuders takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Update Update
Brayann Pereira replaces Philippe Sandler.
60
Substitution Substitution
Basar Onal is substituted for Eli Dasa.
60
Substitution Substitution
Danilo Pereira da Silva is substituted off for Bram Nuytinck.
58
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Darko Nejasmic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tygo Land scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Younes Taha.
51
Attempt Attempt
Tygo Land takes a right-footed shot and scores.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Tika de Jonge.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marco Rente scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Younes Taha.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Marco Rente, and it's a header into the goal!
44
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
41
Update Update
David van der Werff's header is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jorg Schreuders takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Peersman takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Update Update
The VAR decision has disallowed the goal due to offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Groningen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.