FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFBSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
FC Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart played out a surprising 1-1 draw in a Bundesliga clash, defying pre-match expectations where Bayern were clear favorites as the stronger team. Bayern controlled the game with 66% possession compared to Stuttgart's 34%, creating numerous chances but failing to capitalize fully. The first half saw Bayern ahead 3-1, yet the final scoreline reflected a dramatic second-half collapse or adjustment, resulting in parity. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half tactical shifts reported. This outcome represented a significant deviation from structural norms, with Bayern underperforming relative to their dominance. The draw highlights Stuttgart's resilience on the road, equalizing late to snatch a point. Bayern's inability to convert possession into goals proved costly in this evenly contested finish.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Match exhibited significant structural deviation of 81.6% for FC Bayern München.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
- Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events notably impacted the result.
- Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the match.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
S. Storks
Other match officials
T. Gansloweit
4th Official
Thorben Siewer
1st Assistant
C. Bandurski
2nd Assistant


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Bayern München
VfB StuttgartMovement
Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
VfB StuttgartTeam Power Ranking
i
51.75
31.57
FC Bayern München
VfB StuttgartForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
FC Bayern München VfB Stuttgart
FC Bayern München VfB Stuttgart
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München VfB Stuttgart


FC Bayern München VfB Stuttgart


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- FCB had peak pressure around 70'.
- VFB started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:05:17+00:00
STARTING XI
FC Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart























































General Information
Next Match

FC Bayern München
vs

FSV Mainz 05
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Mewa Arena

VfB Stuttgart
vs

Werder Bremen
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: MHPArena
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
FC Bayern MünchenManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




VfB StuttgartManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Events
CONCLUSION
FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary