FC Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Allianz Arena Wed, 6 May - 7:00 PM
Champions League
FC Bayern München FCB
1 – 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Full Time Wed, 6 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 5 - 6
Harry Kane - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Ousmane Dembélé - 3'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Bayern München 1–1 Paris Saint Germain. The match ended in a draw. FC Bayern München showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 66%–34%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw showed a significant 81.6% deviation from FC Bayern München's expected dominance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable, preventing alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match's flow or structure.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game's dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Alves Jesus

1st Assistant

Portugal

L. Gomes Maia

2nd Assistant

Portugal

E. Eskås

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Champions League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.18
Yellow cards / match 3.11
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.46
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.18
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Real Madrid Rank: 93 W
Real Madrid Rank: 93 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 W
PSV Rank: 86 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 W
Liverpool Rank: 92 W
Liverpool Rank: 92 W
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Monaco Rank: 80 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 0 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
58.9%
Draw
18.39%
Away Paris Saint Germain
22.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
+52.65%
Draw
-70.9%
Paris Saint Germain
+18.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
100
95.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Power Score
100
95.11
League Position
2
11
Global Rank
1
5

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München Paris Saint Germain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris Saint Germain
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.88
47.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.65
32.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Bayern München -1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Paris Saint Germain +1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris Saint Germain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Bayern München Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Bayern München
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Bayern München Paris Saint Germain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Bayern München 0.24
Paris Saint Germain 0.63
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Paris Saint Germain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Bayern München 0.04
Paris Saint Germain 0.01
FC Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCB had peak pressure around 47'.
  • FCB started the game with stronger pressure.
FCB Pressure PSG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCB reached the top pressure at 47' (85.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
12 matches
Paris Saint Germain PSG Away
Match Record
8
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
8
Goals
19
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
19
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:01:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Neuer
Germany
1 M. Neuer
K. Laimer
Austria
27 K. Laimer
D. Upamecano
Substitution
France
2 D. Upamecano
J. Tah
Substitution
Germany
4 J. Tah
J. Stanisic
Substitution
Croatia
44 J. Stanisic
J. Kimmich
Germany
6 J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
Germany
45 A. Pavlović
M. Olise
France
17 M. Olise
J. Musiala
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Musiala
L. Díaz Marulanda
Colombia
14 L. Díaz Marulanda
H. Kane
England
9 H. Kane
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
N. Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
25 N. Mendes
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
M. Aoás Corrêa
Brazil
5 M. Aoás Corrêa
W. Zaire Emery
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
J. Gonçalves Neves
Portugal
87 J. Gonçalves Neves
V. Machado Ferreira
Portugal
17 V. Machado Ferreira
F. Ruiz Peña
Substitution
Spain
8 F. Ruiz Peña
K. Kvaratskhelia
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
O. Dembélé
Substitution
France
10 O. Dembélé
D. Doue
Substitution
France
14 D. Doue

General Information

Date & Time :
May 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 5 - 6
Stadium :
Allianz Arena
Capacity :
75024
Attendance :
75000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Joao Pedro Pinheiro
Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus
Luciano António Gomes Maia
Espen Eskås

Statistics

Possession
FCB
62%
PSG
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 7
74 Dangerous attacks 24
66 Possession 34
1 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

85 Ball Safe 80
1 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 11
4 Substitutions 4
3 Goal Kicks 13
10 Successful Headers 8
1 Assists 1
25 Throwins 12
27 Dribble Attempts 22
16 Successful Dribbles 15
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 68

Attacking

146 Attacks 69
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

15 Key Passes 13
570 Passes 301
87 Successful Passes Percentage 71
496 Successful Passes 213
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
61 Long Passes 67
39 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

6 Saves 5
8 Tackles 28
45 Duels Won 59
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 8
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
6.79
42
Lennart Karl
Lennart Karl
Midfielder85'
7.46
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
6.72
3
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim
Defender68'
6.44
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
6.76
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
7
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
Defender67'
6.51
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
7.38
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
6.74
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson
Attacker79'
7.37
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz Midfielder
7.53
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
7.7
45
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
7.18
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
7.91
Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
6.99
5
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Defender
6.87
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
7.17
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu
Midfielder85'
6.82
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Defender
6.77
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
6.93
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz Midfielder
7.13
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo
Defender76'
6.56
17
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
7.57
87
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
7.18
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
7.72
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
7.24
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola
Attacker65'
6.82
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Attacker
7.55
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández
Defender76'
6.35

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joshua Kimmich
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Harry Kane
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+4'
86'
Event
Marquinhos
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Lennart Karl  → Dayot Upamecano
7th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Senny Mayulu → Nuno Mendes
8th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Jackson → Jamal Musiala
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Luis Díaz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
78'
76'
Event
Lucas Beraldo → Fabián Ruiz
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Lucas Hernández → Désiré Doué
5th Substitution
Event
Min-jae Kim → Jonathan Tah
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Alphonso Davies → Josip Stanisic
2nd Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Bradley Barcola → Ousmane Dembélé
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jonathan Tah
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
8'
Event
Nuno Mendes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's right-footed shot is saved.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Harry Kane scores, making it 1-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
88
Attempt Attempt
Konrad Laimer's left-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lennart Karl takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcos Aoas Correa Marquinhos receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Lennart Karl replaces Dayot Upamecano.
85
Update Update
Senny Mayulu comes on for Nuno Mendes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson is on, and Jamal Musiala is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Substitution Substitution
Lucas Hernandez is substituted for Desire Doue.
76
Update Update
Lucas Beraldo is on, and Fabian Ruiz Pena is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Kim Min-Jae replaces Jonathan Glao Tah.
65
Update Update
Bradley Barcola comes on for Ousmane Dembele.
64
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue's right-footed shot is saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Jonathan Glao Tah, saved with a right-footed attempt.
57
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Pavlovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Glao Tah attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Machado Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Joao Neves takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Josip Stanisic.
27
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's right-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nuno Mendes receives a yellow card.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ousmane Dembele scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
3
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembele takes a shot with his left foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Bayern München exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

FC Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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